There’s been a strategy in baseball of cycling through bullpen arms to get maximum freshness from your fringier relievers. The Cardinals utilized this to some extent last year, but they’ve mostly abandoned it this year. I’ve seen some complaints about it. We are in late April and there’s really only one instance of using a bullpen shuttle to get a fresh arm and I don’t even really think it applies.
They’ve made minimal bullpen moves in general. Matt Pushard required an IL trip a week into the season,
and Gordon Graceffo took his place. About a week after that, the highly ineffective Chris Roycroft was sent down and Jared Shuster took his place. Shuster didn’t pitch for another six days, so I don’t think this counts. After he pitched back-to-back days, they called up Ryan Fernandez. Really the only instance of them cycling through bullpen arms.
When I posited this question to Tom Ackerman on the podcast, one of his explanations for why this might be the case was essentially there’s nothing to cycle through. Which is mostly true. The only reliever on the 40 man right now is Roycroft, and I don’t think people are clamoring for him to come back. But I kind of wanted to see for myself. What are the options? Do they really have nobody they could call up? So, let’s look at the options: the candidates who could be mixed in at times when the bullpen needs some fresh innings. And then we can decide for ourselves whether or not one or more of these pitchers could be incorporated into more of a bullpen shuttle throughout the season.
Matt Pushard, 28
AAA: 4 G, 4.2 IP, 10.5 K%, 15.8 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .214 BABIP, 1.93 ERA/5.29 FIP/7.30 xFIP
Pushard will be back… and judging by how his rehab appearances are going, he’ll use all 30 days of his rehab. He’s only been down for 12 days so far. He has slowly improved. He got his first strikeout on April 21st, his third rehab appearance, and yesterday he threw a perfect inning with a strikeout. But due to the nature of this season and frankly, the lack of bullpen depth in general, he’ll be back. (His FIP and xFIP are not updated for last night, so both will improve)
Whenever they do call him up, the three pitchers with options are Gordon Graceffo, Matt Svanson, and Ryan Fernandez. Given the pecking order, the assumption is Fernandez goes down certainly, but he’s barely used and if you really want to use a bullpen shuttle as intended, you send down someone who has pitched a bunch recently. Both Svanson and Graceffo are used all the time, so odds are good one of them will have pitched 3 of the last 4 days or something when they are cool with Pushard coming up. Unless Oli trusts Fernandez a whole lot more in the next 20 days or circumstances dictate heavy Fernandez usage in a short span.
Chris Roycroft, 29
AAA: 8 G, 8 IP, 22.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 70.8 GB%, .360 BABIP, 2.25 ERA/2.14 FIP/2.59 xFIP
I’m not falling for this again. The term Quad A player typically refers to hitters who can dominate in AAA but then can’t make contact at the MLB level. You don’t see this as much with pitchers. Well, Roycroft is my new go-to example of a AAAA pitcher. Granted, he is pitching quite a bit better in AAA than he did last year, so there is that. And just by the nature of this season, he should get another crack at it. But yeah, he has reached “do not trust his AAA stats” for me.
Luis Gastelum, 24
AAA: 10 G, 14.1 IP, 19.7 K%, 18 BB%, 48.6 GB%, .162 BABIP, 2.70 ERA/4.81 FIP/5.21 xFIP
I’ll be honest. I had kind of taken it for granted that Gastelum would be good in AAA. He hasn’t been good at all. Yes, I know his ERA is good. For literally the first time in his pro career, he’s getting batted ball luck, which is something I guess. He’d been running .340 or greater BABIPs up to this point, so in that light, I suppose it makes sense he’d eventually get lucky. But yeah he pitched yesterday too and walked a guy and didn’t strike anybody out, so his advanced stats will get even worse.
He’s not particularly close to getting promoted in my opinion, especially because he’s more of a long-term play.
Skylar Hales, 24
AAA: 9 G, 10 IP, 15.5 K%, 22.4 BB%, 57.6 GB%, .371 BABIP, 8.10 ERA/5.79 FIP/6.70 xFIP
Woof. Okay. I think I would probably have to argue with a few people that Gastelum isn’t actually pitching well because of his good ERA. No issues on this one. This is awful. He’s getting groundballs, so there’s one positive. He’s pretty far away from getting the call-up.
Scott Blewett, 30
AAA: 9 G, 14 IP, 30.6 K%, 9.7 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .394 BABIP, 5.14 ERA/4.96 FIP/3.61 xFIP
Blewett has relatively strong K/BB numbers, but allowing a ton of homers and a high BABIP isn’t exactly the kind of thing you want to see from a guy with unimpressive MLB stats for his career. He doesn’t have options, so he would not be a very good shuttle guy anyway. And though he has 5 years of team control, he’s not really a future guy either. He’s more Jared Shuster than someone to help keep the bullpen fresh.
Jared Shuster, 27
AAA: 4 G, 8.2 IP, 23.1 K%, 0 BB%, 39.3 GB%, .407 BABIP, 6.23 ERA/3.50 FIP/4.33 xFIP
Going to need to recalibrate here, because I am extremely thrown off by the seemingly not great xFIP despite not walking anybody and having a semi-respectable K rate. Due to a .407 BABIP and bad sequencing, he has a bad ERA, but I am surprised the advanced stats aren’t better. And it’s because he’s actually hit two guys. Okay, that makes more sense. That’s basically a walk. A 5.1 BB/HBP% is still good, but with an average K rate and not many groundballs in a hitter friendly league, the xFIP certainly makes more sense. He’s still “this is an emergency and we need 3 innings in a blowout” which again due to the no options, not ideal for a bullpen shuttle.
Tink Hence, 23
AAA: 8 G, 8.1 IP, 15.6 K%, 20 BB%, 53.6 GB%, .333 BABIP, 8.64 ERA/7.89 FIP/7.36 xFIP
I have good news, sort of. Hence struck out two batters yesterday with no walks. He also allowed a run. This is good news, because I imagine his FIP and xFIP will see a nice boost, though they will still not be good at all. He’s going through something right now. I imagine they were hoping Hence could be a part of the bullpen shuttle, but that has not worked out even slightly so far. I really hope Hence can get some MLB innings in before the year is over.
Hancel Rincon, 24
AAA: 6 G, 13.2 IP, 28.8 K%, 11.9 BB%, 47.1 GB%, .281 BABIP, 4.61 ERA/5.35 FIP/3.98 xFIP
I’m not entirely sure what they’re doing with Rincon to be honest, a guy I thought was a starting pitching prospect. And to be fair, he is pitching more than a relief prospect. Those are okay numbers. Certainly make me think he can be a bullpen threat at some point, if not right now. I kind of wonder if they’re waiting for a spot to open up in the rotation because he’s a lower priority starting pitching prospect. And since Dobbins will be getting the call-up, there is a spot opening up. I can see why they wouldn’t want to add him to the 40 yet. Those 13 innings are his only AAA innings.
Max Rajcic, 24
AAA: 9 G, 18 IP, 25 K%, 9.2 BB%, 42.6 GB%, .340 BABIP, 2.50 ERA/3.50 FIP/4.10 xFIP
Another uncertain role guy, but in Rajcic’s case, I kind of understand if they’ve given up on him as a starter already. I’d say this is a pretty promising start to the season. I can see why they might want more of a sample, because he was really quite bad in his 11 starts last year at AAA. And if you make his K% a little worse and his BB% a little worse, which usually happens when you get promoted to the big leagues, that’s definitely a bad reliever. So I’m not sure his stats are good enough yet either.
Bruce Zimmermann, 31
AAA: 5 GS, 33.9 K%, 5.5 BB%, 42.2 GB%, .373 BABIP, 3.96 ERA/4.39 FIP/2.95 xFIP
My official pitch to have Zimmermann replace Justin Bruhl begins here. I don’t know how much more of a sample of games we need from Bruhl, but he’s been about as bad as possible. Not really sure that experiment is worth continuing. Zimmerman, in the rotation in AAA, has struck out a third of batters. He’s left-handed by the way, if you’ve never heard of this guy.
He did pitch in relief in 7 games in 2023, and he struck out 23% of batters and didn’t walk a batter in 13.1 IP. His ERA was 4.73, but his xFIP was 3.39, his xERA was 3.71, and his SIERA was 2.99. That was his only experience as a reliever, he’s otherwise been a starter at the MLB level. He has a career 5.2 BB% as a starting pitcher in the majors. Even though he was bad, like bare minimum this guy probably isn’t walking guys. Unless there’s some potential in Bruhl that I’m not seeing, can you just give me a lefty that won’t walk guys instead?
Yes, I know he’s currently starting in Memphis and I’m pretty sure he’s this year’s version of Curtis Taylor, but surely Zimmerman will not get called up ahead of Quinn Mathews if another starter is needed? I’d much rather Rincon start than Zimmermann and I’d much rather Zimmermann be in St. Louis than Bruhl at this point. If for some reason, we need Zimmermann to start, we’ll just have a couple awkward games of getting him up to speed.
Cade Winquest, 26
AAA: 3 G, 3 IP, 25 K%, 6.3 BB%, 37.5 GB%, .429 BABIP, 12.00 ERA/9.05 FIP/6.55 xFIP
Winquest has actually hit 3 batters somehow in his 3 innings pitched, which is why his stats are so bad. Yeah apparently, I need to check the HBP stat when looking at pitchers more often, because this is the second pitcher whose K/BB ratio makes them look better than they’ve actually pitched. Reminder that Winquest started 8 games in AA last year, and that’s literally his only experience at AA or above, so he might not be ready for a minute. Just because the Yankees selected him in the Rule 5 did not make him MLB ready.
Austin Love, 27
AA: 7 G, 10 IP, 45.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 47.1 GB%, .200 BABIP, 2.70 ERA/3.77 FIP/2.48 xFIP
I’m just going to beat this drum again. Why is he not in Memphis???
Not an option because they are starting
Quinn Mathews
Pete Hansen
Brycen Mautz
Starting pitching prospects are not automatically disqualified from being considered bullpen help, but I think these three qualify. For Mautz and Hansen, it’s simply too early. They literally just got to Memphis. Certainly getting innings in the bullpen at the MLB level can be the next step for a prospect even if you intend for them to start, but I don’t think you do that for pitchers who are a month into AAA.
Not an option because they’re injured
Cooper Hjerpe
Tekoah Roby
Ixan Henderson
Sem Robberse
Zack Thompson
Packy Naughton
Victor Santos
Richard Fitts
Believe it or not Victor Santos was one of the players in the Tyler O’Neill trade. He’s basically been injured since. Packy unfortunately probably had a season-ending injury. Roby is probably hurt for the year. If healthy, Robberse almost certainly would integrate into the bullpen like Graceffo has, with maybe a hope for the rotation in the future. We know Fitts is done for the year, it seems like Henderson might be too, though there’s been no word. In any case, Henderson fits into the too early group, having not yet pitched at Memphis.
We’re probably going to see Hjerpe in relief whenever he comes back. He had Tommy John surgery early last season, so it seems like he should be able to return at some point this year. If he picks up where he left off, it certainly seems like he could get MLB hitters out in relief immediately. Obviously, he’ll need all 30 days of rehab first. I don’t know what happened to Zack Thompson.
Not an option because they pitched poorly
Gerson Moreno
Ian Bedell
Covering my bases since I did actually share quite a few players who have bad stats, but those players had what we call expectations and I don’t think Moreno or Bedell really have that. Bedell has a 10.80 ERA with just about as bad of advanced stats, so as much as I’m rooting for the Mizzou grad, I kind of don’t think he’ll be here in a month.
