Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 25 at 3:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Rice Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: UConn (-10.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: UConn leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: UConn 17, Rice 10 — October 26, 2024
- Current streak: UConn, 2 (2023-24)
Setting the scene
Before 2023, the Rice Owls and UConn Huskies never met each other on the gridiron. Now the current and the former American Conference members battle in non-conference action for the third-straight October.
Both matchups went in the Huskies’ favor as Jim Mora Jr. and Co. generated back-to-back 7-point wins over the Owls — one in Houston, TX as underdogs and another in East Hartford, CT as favorites.
After four-straight wins, UConn retains the favorite status on the road at Rice, which aims to snap a three-game losing skid. The Huskies can attain bowl eligibility for the second-straight season and for the third time in four years with a win.
UConn Huskies outlook
UConn (5-2, Independent) is on fire at the moment. The Huskies kept finding themselves in 50-50 games early in the season, dropping a pair of overtime heartbreakers to Syracuse and Delaware to start 1-2. But the team is improving on a weekly basis, comfortably disposing of FIU and Boston College in its past two outings.
The Huskies’ defining feature is playing smart. UConn is tied with Temple for first in the country in fewest turnovers, only coughing up one fumble through seven outings. That means quarterback Joe Fagnano has yet toss an interception, and the seventh-year senior quarterback is looking like the ultimate veteran. Fagnano has 16 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and he’s connecting on a 68.1 completion rate. He ranks 12th in the FBS in both completion percentage among quarterbacks with 200 attempts and in passing yards, averaging 274 per contest.
UConn’s offensive line is also doing a standup job at protecting its leader, who has only absorbed multiple sacks in one game this year. Another feature of the offense which makes Fagnano so effective is star wide receiver Skyler Bell. Bell is among the nation’s elite in the most essential receiving categories, checking in at second in receptions (58), fourth in yards (687), and sixth in touchdowns (7). He is especially lethal on screens in space and can inflict plenty of damage in backed off man coverage.
Rounding out UConn’s skill position phenoms is running back Cam Edwards, who ranks 13th in the FBS in rushing. The explosive running back racks up 6.1 yards per carry and is no stranger to breaking off 50+ yard scampers. Rice bottled up Edwards better than any defense last year, and the junior running back eyes a bounce-back performance after generating 110+ yards in three games this season.
The Huskies’ offense is their strength, but the defense presents more volatility. UConn struggled mightily in the overtime losses to Syracuse and Delaware, surrendering 461 and 512 yards in those matchups. Even the fourth quarter against Ball State. They were even susceptible to explosive plays late in the Ball State game, but things have trended more favorably since Week 5. The Huskies are yielding 16.7 points per game in their last three, and progress as a passing defense is the driving force behind the improvement.
Just like UConn has a top 15 passer, rusher, and receiver, the Huskies also featured another statistical savant. Inside linebacker Bryun Parham ranks fourth nationally in sacks with 8.5, tallying a team-high 61 tackles and 11 tackles for loss in an all-out dominant campaign. Quarterback pressure is the top attribute of this defense. UConn is third in the FBS in sacks per game at 3.7, receiving additional linebacker assistance from Temple transfer Tyquan King.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice (3-4, 1-3 American) commenced the season at 3-1 for the first time since 2001, but the Owls are in the midst of a cold stretch right now. They’ve dropped three consecutive conference matchups, falling in one-score fashion to Navy and Florida Atlantic before a nightmare 61-13 collapse at UTSA.
The Owls’ first bye week came at the appropriate time as the team can now regroup and heal up before the non-conference finale against UConn. In terms of health, nobody needed the bye week more than the quarterback room. Rice didn’t just lose by 48 to UTSA — the Owls lost three quarterbacks in that demolition. Starter Chase Jenkins exited with a left leg injury, then Drew Devillier exited with a shoulder injury, and true freshman Patrick Crayton Jr. rounded out the misfortune by leaving the game to get stitches. Fourth-stringer Lucas Scheerhorn finished the night for Rice, and that leaves the question — who will start Saturday?
Rice head coach Scott Abell did not specify the extent of the injuries but implied Jenkins and Deveillier are day-to-day while Crayton is fully cleared. Abell also stated that Rice may play multiple quarterbacks as Jenkins and Devillier are limited in different facets due to the nature of their injuries. Jenkins started all seven games this fall, spearheading Abell’s new gun spread option offense as the most mobile option. The 6’5”, 228 pound Devillier is more of a traditional pocket passer, earning his lone collegiate start last October at UConn.
The Owls’ option scheme favors the ground in extreme fashion. The only schools that pass less frequently than Rice are the three FBS service academies. The Owls average over 50 runs per game, utilizing a heavy dose of the quarterback as well as the running back duo of Quinton Jackson and Daelen Alexander. Both tailbacks rack up over five yards per carry in this option attack, and the Owls involve other skill position guys too. Former UConn leading receiver Aaron Turner has 116 rushing yards on 18 attempts this year, operating in a new role as a jet sweep specialist.
Until the trip to UTSA, Rice never surrendered north of 28 offensive points in a game. Defense has been a strength of the Owls in year one of the Abell era and an effective pass defense was the defining feature. That unit suffered vs. the Roadrunners, but safeties Jack Kane and Daveon Hook are expected to return to bolster the depth of the secondary. However, starting cornerback Khary Crump (who leads the American with six pass breakups) is suspended for making contact with an official vs. UTSA, and that will be a significant loss.
Rice averages fewer than a takeaway per game, and that’s one area of progress needed, but the Owls’ backfield pressure is commendable. Defensive end Michael Daley has 4.0 sacks, while outside linebacker Ty Morris has seven tackles for loss on a team that thrives on forcing negative plays.
Prediction
All three Rice wins have a similar formula this year. In order for the Owls to emerge as victors, they must start fast and be in full control by the third quarter. Also, it must be a low-scoring game where the defense is thriving, as the Owls’ option offense lacks explosive passing capabilities. Rice operates much better with leads, able to pound the rock and control the clock to the finish.
However, UConn presents an explosive offense with some of the nation’s most underrated skill position talent. The big three of Joe Fagnano, Cam Edwards, and Skyler Bell are all tough weapons to contain, and UConn’s 16th-ranked offense is fully capable of piling on points. The Huskies will rely on those three to produce a third-consecutive win over Rice and a fifth-straight win overall this season.
Prediction: UConn 34, Rice 14
