Bucks finish with 10th-best NBA Draft Lottery odds as standings finalize

May 12, 2024; Chicago, IL, USA; A overall shot of the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place West. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images The Bucks’ 2025–26 regular season is mercifully over, and while we still have more questions than answers—including a now-official question as to who will

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What is the story about?

The Bucks’ 2025–26 regular season is mercifully over, and while we still have more questions than answers—including a now-official question as to who will be coaching them come October—we do have more clarity on where Milwaukee could be drafting in June. As you’ll read, while the standings are set in stone, the lottery odds for other teams are not. Because of the Bucks’ pick swap with the Pelicans, they still have to wait to find out how many ping-pong ball combinations they have. Let’s dive in.

Official 2026 NBA Lottery Odds

Based on the end-of-season standings, here is the current lottery order (with each position’s odds to receive the no. 1 pick) for the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery on May 10:

Washington Wizards — protected 1–8 (14%)
Indiana Pacers — protected 1–4, to Clippers if fifth or sixth (14%)
Brooklyn Nets (14%)
Utah Jazz — top-8 protected (11.5%)
Sacramento Kings (11.5%)
Memphis Grizzlies (9%)
New Orleans Pelicans (6.8%)
Dallas Mavericks (6.7%)
Chicago Bulls (4.5%)
Milwaukee Bucks (3%)
Golden State Warriors (2%)
Oklahoma City Thunder — via Clippers (1.5%)*
Miami Heat (1%)*
Charlotte Hornets (0.5%)*

*These play-in teams could move out of the lottery if they advance into the 16-team playoff field, and be replaced by any of Portland, Orlando, Phoenix, or Philadelphia, though each of those teams’ picks is encumbered by swaps. S

Another note: the Jazz and Kings both finished with the same record, as did the Pelicans and Mavericks. Random tiebreakers will occur to determine which team receives the more favorable lottery placement. This will have some bearing on where the Bucks pick, as a better placement for the Pelicans increases the Bucks’ chances of drafting before 10th by 3.4% due to the swap. So we don’t actually know their true odds just yet.

As you likely know, the listed lottery odds for the team that finishes 10th aren’t actually what the Bucks have. In reality, they have a zero percent chance of receiving the top pick because in 2020, they traded swap rights to their 2026 first-round pick to the Pelicans in exchange for Jrue Holiday. Now, New Orleans has since traded those swap rights to Atlanta, so as I referred to above, what will end up happening is that the Hawks will receive whichever pick between the Bucks’ and Pelicans’ ends up more favorable. The Bucks will receive the less favorable choice.

Morgan and I delved into this a bit back in February, but now that the season is over, let’s go over how things actually shake out, factoring in the swap. We have to wait for the results of the tiebreaker to know their final odds, but here are the chances the Bucks will receive any lottery pick based on finishing 10th:

Obviously, odds are the Bucks will draft 10th. If they hadn’t dealt the swap rights to their pick, their odds of drafting 10th would be 65.9%, and they’d face about a 20.2% chance of dropping down further. Unfortunately, New Orleans decided to win a lot more in the second half of the year and finished somewhat close to Milwaukee in the standings, which upped the odds of Milwaukee falling back to between 23.1% and 23.5%, depending on that tiebreaker.

For what it’s worth, had they lost one more game and finished ninth in the lotto standings, their odds of still ending up with the 10th pick were still between 29.5% and 33.4%, while their odds at the top four improved from 3.3% or 4% (depending on if NOLA is seventh or eighth) to 4.8% to 5.8%. Their most likely draft position would have been ninth at 52% or 56.7%. Shoutout to Morgan for figuring out the code to calculate all these odds.

Anyway, since you should abandon all hope of receiving the number one overall pick, your dreams of Milwaukee receiving the second pick would only become reality if New Orleans (actually Atlanta) wins the lottery. The odds of that happening are less than half a percent. But the tiebreaker does improve the Bucks’ chances of netting a top-four selection from 3.3% to 4%, so take that for what you will.

Final 2025–26 NBA Standings

Here are the final standings for each conference, with the play-in ultimately set to decide who will face the top two seeds in each. The no. 2 seed in each conference will play the winner of the 7-8 game, while the no. 1 seed will play the winner of the next game, between the loser of the 7-8 game and the winner of the 9-10 game.

Eliminated teams in italics.