I think it bears repeating as the Cubs split their season series with the Braves. The Cubs won the season series from seven teams, including the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks. They split the series with four teams, including, now, the Braves. They lost the season series to only the Cardinals and Brewers. Are the Dodgers definitely doing a thing where they coast through the regular season just trying to stay healthy for a postseason run? Absolutely. Were all of those other teams? Did
any of those other teams think they had so much margin of error that they could just mail in their games with the Cubs? I don’t think so. The National League was the better league this year, by a decent margin. And the Cubs played better against the NL.
My point? This Cubs team is a flawed team. We’ve all seen that. We all know it. Heck, this was a pretty good game and it saw the Cubs bullpen allow three runs in three innings of work. And the three guys who threw have definitely been three of the better arms of late, regardless of what that says about the guys who didn’t throw in this one. So even in a nice win, we see the problem. And yet, when you have the presumptive NL MVP, a guy who is going to get a fair bit of downballot support for that same award and a deep cast of supporting characters, you do have a chance to be a pain in somebody’s butt. I see what you see. I know what has you nervous or disappointed about this team. I get it. But this team can play. They’re not going to shy away from anyone (even the Brewers who, yeah, maybe they should).
Oh and one more thing. You aren’t digging around the web and finding BCB and then finding what I write and then hanging around because you are a casual fan. You are looking for sports talk and getting in the weeds. You’re a smart baseball fan. Don’t be one of those people who’s still doom speaking and suggesting this team won’t even get into the playoffs. This team is going to be a playoff team. They’ll probably, but not definitely, be the first Wild Card. They’ll clinch a playoff spot early next week.
Can’t let Al have all of the fun. The big picture is fun, but what a fun game this was from the closeup view. This was pretty certainly the best combined game of the two best Cub hitters this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman each had three hits, all extra base hits. 20 total bases between the two of them. Seven runs driven in between the two of them. Four runs scored. With Bregman’s continued late push, he might finish in the top five in the NL in fWAR among position players.
PCA? He’s chasing Rogers Hornsby for the highest fWAR season in Cub history. With two more homers and a triple along with his usual excellent defense, he feels like a good bet to set that record. He’s already set new records for most homers and most extra base hits by a Cub left handed hitter. It is mind-boggling that if he doesn’t get a 40/40 season, it’s largely because he has too many homers. As if that’s such a thing. As if his season will be any less special at 44/37 (and counting). There are players in baseball history with 37 or more steals and 44 or more homers in a single season — PCA, Shohei Ohtani and Alfonso Soriano.
Simply remarkable. If we didn’t have PCA, we’d be talking a lot about the impressive season of Bregman. Pretty amusing for a guy who many suggested was a terrible signing for the first couple of months of the season, while he was working hard to work out a couple of issues. How many teammates do you think were paying attention when a savvy veteran with a couple of rings and an enormous contract was working his butt off trying to work out some issues? He could have just been satisfied and plodded along until he got things together. But we saw on Marquee several times early him going through the process of getting things worked out.
This has been the kind of season that makes you want to pull your hair out. But it has also been so much fun. I suspect we’re going to have a long offseason to digest all of the things that went wrong and try to figure out how to triage that and correct it in what will likely be a disrupted offseason. We know in some way or another there will be new economics going forward and the team will have to figure out how to navigate that new system while also trying to keep a talented team building while significantly upgrading the pitching staff. We know that they can’t solely depend on the returns of a number of guys who missed all or most of this year. But we also know that those guys might come back and have a lot to add too.
Let’s do our best to put the frustration aside and really enjoy these last few weeks of the season. I feel like there are probably some thrills still to be had before the ride comes to a full and complete stop. Do keep your hands inside the car until then. Wouldn’t want to lose anybody.
Three Positives:
- Perhaps the wildest thing in this game was a Tommy Hottovy mound visit for Shōta Imanaga with no clear reason. Imanaga was terrific in this one. Four hits, no walks, one run. He struck out eight over six. The Cubs got terrific work from their starters in this series. I have to wonder if the Marquee broadcast was correct and Imanaga was tipping pitches and the Cubs rather than the Braves picked up on it. He’s so often good other than when allowing homers, you don’t need a lot of tinfoil to wonder if he has a consistent ongoing problem with tipping his pitches.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had two homers and a triple. If I heard right on the broadcast, this was his second such game. The all time record for such games is four by a couple of fellows named Ruth and Gehrig. Pete’s probably going to break that record eventually, too.
- Alex Bregman joined the club of guys who have gotten the three hardest parts of a cycle but didn’t finish it. Bummer for Alex not to finish it. That’s one thing he’s never done in his very successful career. He might join some fun groups this offseason. Things like Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, MVP top 5’s, etc.
Game 153, September 16: Cubs 8, Braves 4 (85-68)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.266). 6 IP, 22 BF, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 8 K (W 11-10)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.210). 3-4, 2 HR, 3B, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R
- Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.199). 3-4, HR, 3B, 2B, 4 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.083). 0-4, HBP, R, DP
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.054). 1-3, BB, RBI
- Kid: Pedro Ramirez (-.056). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s solo homer with one out in the third inning increased the Cub lead to two. (.103)
Braves Play of the Game: JR Ritchie got Seiya Suzuki to ground into a double play with a runner on first and no outs in the first inning. (.072)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 152 Winner: Kevin Gausman received 22 of 50 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
- Alex Bregman +25
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -16
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
- Seiya Suzuki -18
Note: For the second time this week we see four of the top six (Conforto drops to sixth in the overall standings) on the podium. And Suzuki drops back into the cellar as his slump continues.
Scoreboard Watching: Blake Snell left a start early for the Dodgers in their loss to the Reds. The Phillies won and remain half a game behind the Cubs (but the Cubs own the tiebreaker). The Padres won for the ninth time in 10 games (1.5 back of the Cubs but Cubs own the tiebreaker). The Diamondbacks lost another close one (five back of the Cubs and Cubs the own tiebreaker). So the Diamondbacks would have to make up six games on the Cubs over nine games played. With full understanding that the Cubs do own a 10-game losing streak this year, they are going to be in a Wild Card spot. It’s only a matter of which one. That D-backs loss was notable because Sandy Alcántara got his first career save in the game. A team using a starter out of the pen late in the season probably wouldn’t raise eyebrows. But Alcántara was Monday’s starter for the Marlins. Now that is a throwback performance.
Up Next: The Reds will host the Dodgers again on Thursday afternoon while the Cubs have an off day. The Cubs can rest their bullpen and all of the players have a day to recharge and they don’t have any crazy travel. Of course, the Reds are staying at home, so no travel for them either. I’m sure the Reds would love to win two or three games from the Cubs here and play spoiler, but they are in last place in the division and very much playing out the string at this point. Heading into play Thursday, they’ve lost seven of 10.
We just covered this team at the end of August. They are 24th in OPS. They don’t really walk but they hit a lot of homers. This series features the first and third place teams in baseball in homers hit (and first and fifth in homers allowed). The Reds are 28th in ERA and 28th in WHIP. Their bullpen is 25th in ERA and WHIP, just slightly better than their starters. Keep the ball in the park and the team is very beatable.
Fangraphs still has the Reds as favorites in the first two games of this series. They have the Cubs as favorites in just four of the final nine games. Coincidentally, the four games the Cubs would need to reach the playoffs even if the Diamondbacks win out and the other two teams do enough to pass the Cubs.
The Cubs haven’t announced starters. But Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.85) is due. Clay is 2-3 with a 3.46 as a Cub in seven starts. Last time out, he got no decision as he allowed two runs over 5.2 innings versus the Pirates. He’s not started against the Reds this year. The Reds did beat him in New York once last year. So there are several Red hitters familiar with him.
Chase Burns (15-3) is scheduled for the Reds. He beat the Cubs a few weeks ago, allowing two runs on six hits over 5.2 innings. The Reds have him significantly pitch limited. He’s thrown three innings in each of his last two starts (at the Dodgers and Brewers). He allowed two runs over six innings and threw 100 pitches total in the two starts. So it’s essentially a bullpen day, regardless of how well he pitches (he had three no hit innings against the Dodgers).
Survive the Burns start and then beat the bullpen. Stay hot. Go Cubs.
