So here we are. Northwestern is 5–2 heading into late October, which is already miles ahead of where most people thought this team would be, and has already put it ahead of its projected four-win mark.
Shoutout whichever coach handed the ‘Cats a vote in the AP Coaches Poll by the way!
But with a tough five-game stretch ahead (at Nebraska, at USC, vs. Michigan, vs. Minnesota, at Illinois), the path forward splinters into several possible roads. Depending on how things go, this could end anywhere from a feel-good six-win bowl season to something much crazier.
Here’s how each path might play out.
5–7: We will cheer you all the time… (The Technical Backdoor)
Path: Lose to Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois (a.k.a. worst case scenario).
Chance: 27.6%, per TeamRankings’ “meltdown” projection
If Northwestern loses out, it would finish 5–7. Normally that ends your season, but the ‘Cats rank eighth nationally in Academic Progress Rate (APR), which is the NCAA’s classroom-based tiebreaker for bowl selection. Basically, if there aren’t enough six-win teams, the five-win team with the highest APR gets to go bowling.
The seven teams above Northwestern right now in terms of APR are No. 1 Ohio State, No. 4 Alabama, North Carolina, No. 25 Michigan, Clemson, Wake Forest and No. 21 Cincinnati. All of them are already either tracking toward bowl eligibility or are trending towards fewer than five wins. So yeah, Northwestern could theoretically sneak into a bowl as the highest 5–7 APR team if there’s a shortage.
But honestly? I don’t think the ‘Cats would even take it. This team feels way too prideful to back their way into a bowl on smarts alone. After the mess that was last year, Braun has built something real here, and nobody in that locker room wants to celebrate a 5–7 season like it’s some kind of victory lap. They all want to earn six-win mark. They’ve already proven they’re tougher than the national narrative gave them credit for.
In sum, 5–7 could technically get them a bowl invite. But the Wildcats aren’t the type to accept it.
6–6: Break right through that line… (The Most Likely Road)
Path: Split Nebraska and Minnesota, lose to USC, Michigan, and Illinois.
Chance: 40.5%, median and “most likely” outcome in both TeamRankings and our Inside NU preseason projections
This feels like the sweet spot, and is where I’m personally leaning. In this case, that “line” is six wins. TeamRankings has Northwestern’s most likely record at 6.1–5.9, and a 72% chance to become bowl eligible. I think Northwestern wins at least one of Nebraska or Minnesota, and locks up bowl eligibility the right way.
Nebraska is just coming off a brutal loss to Minnesota, where it basically got called out by its own players and coaches for not being tough enough. Head coach Matt Rhule kept saying how much he was “pissed off” in the postgame press conference. When a coach uses that combination of words three times in just one presser, it usually means his team is trying to prove something. The question is: can they?
If the Wildcats show up with the same edge they’ve had during this win streak, Nebraska’s still reeling enough for NU to steal one in Lincoln. Minnesota, on the other hand, is statistically the smarter bet (49.5% chance), especially with a freshman quarterback and the game at Wrigley Field (which, for once, could feel like a majority-NU crowd).
Interestingly, Northwestern is given a slightly better shot at beating Michigan (20.1%) than Nebraska (18.9%), but let’s be real. That Michigan game will basically be a home game for the Wolverines. Wrigley or not, Ann Arbor travels. So the 6–6 path? Beat Nebraska or Minnesota, lose the rest, and you’re going bowling. No asterisks, no academics, no apologies.
7–5: Spread far the fame of our fair name… (The Breakthrough)
Path: Beat both Nebraska and Minnesota; drop USC, Michigan, and Illinois.
Chance: 23.1%, via TeamRankings’ “good luck” outcome
As mentioned before, Nebraska has lost a bit of edge. Minnesota is capable but beatable, especially if the ‘Cats stay hot and keep rolling with that defense-first energy. Both games line up at the right times: Nebraska is currently struggling with its identity after three tight games followed by a blowout collapse and Minnesota will be coming to Chicago late in the year when NU could be looking to bounce back.
Winning two more may seem daunting, but then again, so was beating Penn State away from home. So was shutting out a team for the first time since 2017. So was a four-game win streak nobody saw coming. It feels like the momentum is actually on their side for once. That matters. The ‘Cats look confident. They look physical. They look… fun. If the offense can become even marginally more consistent, this record is very much attainable.
If they hit that mark, it’s no longer “surprise bowl team.” It’s “Northwestern is back.”
8–4 (or better): Dream until your dreams come true… (The Cardiac ‘Cats)
Path: Win the aforementioned games, and steal one from either USC, Michigan or Illinois.
Chance: 8.6%, based on TeamRankings’ “miracle” forecast
Alright, let’s dream on for a second. It’s only fitting with basketball season knocking on the door.
To get to 8–4, Northwestern would need to take care of Nebraska and Minnesota and likely steal one from No. 25 Michigan (20.1% chance) or No. 23 Illinois (17.7% chance). Both are ranked. Both are tough. But both are rivalry games, and weird stuff always happens when pride gets involved.
Beating Illinois on the road would feel personal. The series has been lopsided lately, and it’s clear that Braun wants The Hat back. And Michigan at Wrigley? It’s technically a “home” game, but even with the crowd split, rivalry games just feel different. Adrenaline does weird things. That was the formula in Happy Valley.
There’s always USC (8.4% chance) as well, but there are very few atmospheres that match Friday night lights at the L.A. Coliseum, so it is probably the toughest game left on the schedule, all things considered. Plus, USC got the most votes out of teams that didn’t place in the AP Poll, so it’s essentially the de facto No. 26 team in the country. Never say never though, as Penn State was also still getting votes when it lost to the Wildcats.
Is 8–4 realistic? Probably not. But after watching this team win four straight and shut out Purdue, I’m not counting anything out. People said Tulane in Week 1 was a nail in the coffin, but in the words of Aerosmith, “you got to lose to know how to win.”
Final Thoughts
At 5–2, Northwestern’s already exceeded expectations. The goal from here is simple: prove it wasn’t a fluke. Whether that means hitting 6–6 and going bowling or shocking everyone and winning seven or eight, it’s been a season worth believing in again.
This team doesn’t want charity. It wants to fight its way there, and I think it will.
