If you’ve followed any of the media coverage hyping up the latest matchup along Tobacco Road tonight, you might be convinced it will simply be a game of one-on-one between Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson.
Certainly, those freshman stars will surely play a major part in deciding the victor. However, games between Duke and UNC are just as often determined by a surprise performance as they are a dominating star effort.
Where might that surprise performance come from tonight? Perhaps from answering one of these key questions:
Who does Dame Sarr guard? Sarr is not only Duke’s best perimeter defender, but one of the best defenders in the nation according to most analytic measures. But it’s unlikely he matches up against North Carolina’s best offensive player, Wilson, considering Wilson plays as a power forward alongside three smaller guards (more on that below). That means Sarr is most likely to be deployed against UNC’s best perimeter scorer, senior Seth Trimble. But while Trimble has improved tremendously during his time in Chapel Hill, he is by no means an offensive dynamo: last year against the Blue Devils he never took more than eight field goals over the three matchups. If Caleb Foster—no slouch defensively himself—can guard Trimble, Sarr could be more impactful by pressuring Tar Heel freshman point guard Derek Dixon, who has only recently ascended into the starting lineup and could be prone to mistakes in his first taste of the rivalry.
Can UNC go big? Early in the season, North Carolina deployed a starting lineup that could only be rivaled by Michigan in pure height, with 6-foot-10 Jarin Stevenson playing the nominal small forward. But Stevenson has seen his usage drop precipitously over the last few weeks as he fell out of the starting lineup. Most interestingly, he’s played primarily as a backup to Wilson and center Henri Veesaar: a grouping with all three on the floor is just the seventh most played lineup over the Tar Heels’ last five games, according to KenPom. If UNC deploys that three big lineup extensively, it could give Duke more defensive flexibility with Dame Sarr. But not doing so makes UNC effectively a much less deep and versatile team than they were earlier this season.
How do the Tar Heels match up on the perimeter? While the main event is down low, the game may be decided on the perimeter. The Tar Heels’ starting lineup of late has been Trimble, Dixon, and 6-foot-4 Jaydon Young. Young was rarely used by the Tar Heels (he’s played just 17% of minutes on the season) before ascending to the starting lineup four games ago against Notre Dame, but even in a starting role he’s played limited minutes and made an even more limited impact on the boxscore. Still, he’s a bigger option than Kyan Evans, who has gone from UNC’s hand-picked replacement for Elliot Cadeau to someone struggling to see the court. Even with that added size, there will inevitably be a mismatch along the perimeter against Duke’s bigger guards. Trimble is a plus defender, but Young and Dixon are question marks given their limited run this season. The Blue Devils will inevitably have a mismatch on the perimeter, likely with Foster guarded by a weaker defender or Sarr having a major size advantage, that they could exploit.
