In his first season as a collegiate starter, one could hardly ask for more from Julian Sayin.
Ohio State’s first-year-starting quarterback completed an incredible 77% of his 391 attempts for 3,610 yards
and 32 touchdowns with just eight interceptions, leading his team into the Big Ten championship game undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country.
He finished as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, and some of his numbers were better than the winner’s.
Sayin was barely edged out for the Big Ten’s top quarterback award by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, but he won the Big Ten Freshman of the Year Award in 2025 as well as the national Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Trophy, earning second-team All-Big Ten honors.
It’s the kind of season that makes it awfully difficult for the Alabama transfer to build on, and although I hardly think he’ll suffer through the dreaded “sophomore slump” in 2026, circumstances may cause his numbers to not look quite as good by the end of the upcoming season, even if he plays just as well or even better overall.
Less Favorable Schedule
It’s fair to say Ohio State dodged a few bullets on the 2025 schedule.
The Buckeyes did not play Indiana, Oregon, or USC during the regular season in 2025. Ohio State’s most difficult games were Texas at home and away at Washington, Illinois, and Michigan. Penn State, a team that looked formidable until its home loss to Oregon in overtime, proved to be a paper tiger Nittany Lion for the meeting in Columbus.
The 2026 OSU schedule is less kind. The Buckeyes will travel to Texas in the second week, visit Iowa on Oct. 3 — Kinnick Stadium trips are always a rock fight — and visit Indiana and USC in consecutive games (with a bye week in between) in mid-to-late October.
After those consecutive trips, Ohio State hosts Oregon, which should contend for the national championship yet again in 2026. The Buckeyes finish the year with a trip to Lincoln to play Nebraska before returning home for the annual rivalry matchup with Michigan.
Although the Nittany Lions fall off the schedule in 2026, this is one of the more difficult slates the league could offer Ryan Day’s team, and although another unbeaten regular season is possible, it shouldn’t be expected.
Another Rebuild to Survive
I don’t think Day and his staff get enough credit for how well Ohio State performed in 2025 with all the losses the Buckeyes sustained to the starting lineup. The Buckeyes had to replace an NFL Draft’s worth of talent in the starting lineup from the 2024 national championship squad.
Sayin, Arvell Reese, Kayden McDonald, Phillip Daniels, Caden Curry, Kenyatta Jackson, and others stepped up in a big way to ensure continuity of quality across the starting lineup. The defensive players also had to adjust to a new defensive coordinator, and they did so in magnificent fashion, elevating a championship-caliber defense to new heights in 2025.
Can Ohio State do it again?
Talent is never lacking in Columbus, but it’s ludicrous to think the team won’t suffer some setbacks after yet another round of heavy attrition to the NFL, with some critical backups opting to hit the transfer portal. While Day landed a solid collection of players in the portal, that talent must assimilate quickly.
The defense could be as good as it was last year, but how can one reasonably expect that to be the case? It will likely not be as good, meaning the offense may be put under more pressure to perform in 2026 against that more difficult schedule.
On the offensive side of the ball, I expect another standout year from Jeremiah Smith — possibly his best yet — and he’ll need to have one, because he won’t have Carnell Tate on the other side in 2026. Brandon Inniss will return to his slot receiver role, but the Buckeyes may use more formations with multiple tight ends (more on that below).
Who will take the heat off Smith down the field? Freshman Chris Henry Jr. may see the field early, but whether as a starter or a key backup remains to be seen. Transfers Kyle Parker from LSU and Devin McCuin from Texas-San Antonio will battle for snaps.
Sayin’s numbers could drop a bit without Tate. Even though there is still plenty of talent in the receiver room, it’s unclear if that talent will provide the kind of safety blanket Tate did during his final year in Columbus on those occasions that the opponent sold out to stop Smith.
New Offensive Scheme
Ohio State looks like it will commit more to the running game in 2026 under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, using more multiple-tight-end formations. With Bo Jackson returning and probably filling out a bit and adding muscle to his frame, he’ll likely take a step forward as a running back in 2026, as will key backup Isaiah West, with Florida transfer Ja’Kobi Jackson battling for touches.
Under new offensive coordinator Smith, the Buckeyes will also likely feature the tight ends more in the passing game, and there is a good collection of players in that position group. The approach may be a more ball-control-centric one, which could affect Sayin’s yardage and touchdown numbers in 2026.
Day will still want to take his shots downfield, but I expect the slow, methodical approach to drives that we saw in 2025 to continue.
Sayin will need to adjust to Smith’s offensive schemes and play calling, although it should fit within the framework of what Day has done throughout his tenure. While the offense could look more efficient in 2026, it may also be less explosive and rely more on one player for big plays in the passing game.
While I see another potential Heisman Trophy finalist (or even winner) season as a possibility for Sayin, Ohio State may be looking for more of a Will Howard-type performance out of the sophomore in 2026, minus the designed runs (though there will almost certainly be some of that as well, with the expectation that Sayin will protect himself and get out of bounds or to the ground before contact).
Sayin’s numbers could drop for all of the above reasons without sacrificing a successful season.
The regular season is a gauntlet in 2026, so I’m not expecting an undefeated year ahead, but if the team can reach the College Football Playoff, few teams will be as battle tested. If Sayin can manage the offense efficiently, he could take the team to another title, even if his numbers aren’t quite what they were in 2025.
I’ll stop short of a prediction, but I could see 70% completion, 3,300 yards and 28 touchdowns from Sayin. Those are still extremely good numbers, but a slight dip from his freshman campaign. If Ohio State’s running game improves under Arthur Smith, those numbers would be plenty good enough.
