The Miami Dolphins return to the playing field this week to face one of their biggest rivals: the New Yorks Jets. For the first time this season, the Dolphins will face a team that doesn’t have a winning record or even a .500 record. The Jets are a scrappy but bad team, just like the Dolphins. They will have their own set of challenges for the boys in aqua and orange, so let’s get to it.
3 REASONS FOR HOPE
REINFORCEMENTS MAY BE ON THE WAY
The Dolphins got one of their key contributors back against the Bengals in week 5 in defensive tackle Kenneth Grant,
though he only played 18 snaps. He will likely be ramped up in this contest. But the Dolphins may also be getting back their top receiver in Caleb Douglas as well as rookie safety Kyle Louis. Both players are practicing and may return to face the Jets. Douglas began the season as the go-to WR for Malik Willis but left in week 2 with an ankle injury. Even if he doesn’t get a ton of stats, his presence will force the Jets’ defense to play differently to account for him. He may be on a pitch count, but it will help the offense regardless. Louis is a bit of a different evaluation as he only played 3 snaps on the season before going on IR. He is also switching from being a college LB to an NFL safety. The Dolphins safety group is playing decent right now with fellow rookie Michael Taaffe and sophomore Dante Trader Jr. being the primary safety duo. But Louis will fill the role as a big nickel and has the athleticism and coverage skills to perhaps limit damage from the tight end position that seems to plague the Dolphins.
THE RUN GAME SHOULD CONTINUE DRIVING THE ENGINE
Ollie Gordon II is now leading the charge for the Dolphins run game. With NFL’s NextGenStats, OG2 is tied with the league’s leading rusher Kenneth Walker III for 2nd in efficiency. The efficiency stat measures how north/south a runner gets. OG2 barrels downhill quickly and runs with power. Right now, he is averaging 5 YPC, which is tied for 6th best. The Dolphins as a team are averaging 4.9 YPC, which is 5th best. The Dolphins also added rookie Kaytron Allen from Washington via the waiver wire. He is listed at 5’11”, 217 lbs. and profiles as another downhill, north/south, power rusher. He was acquired just before the Cincinnati game but has had 2 full weeks to get into the system. He will likely get some game action when also considering Jaylen Wright aggravated an injury against the Bengals. Even if he’s active, Wright may have limited touches. The Dolphins can lean on the two bruisers to power the run game and keep the chains moving regardless. The Jets are towards the bottom end of the league in rushing yards allowed, ranking 25th with 738 yards allowed. They are also middle of the pack in YPC allowed, ranking 19th with 4.4 YPC allowed. The Jets also haven’t faced a running threat at QB like Malik Willis. I’ve mentioned in other posts and comments several ways for the passing game to help Willis get into a rhythm and build confidence. But another way for the offense to stay in rhythm is for the QB to pick up some yards with his legs. This is a matchup that favors the Dolphins.
THE DEFENSE CAN MAKE A STAND
It often takes some time for a new defense to gel and start playing up to the expectation. It could take even longer with a defense with so much inexperience. Statistically, the Dolphins aren’t as bad as their record suggests. They are 21st in yards per play allowed. They are 16th in passing yards per game allowed. They are 16th in rushing yards per game allowed. They are 8th in YPC allowed. Of course, they have that pesky completion percentage allowed issue. But as we’ve seen in the 2 most recent games, the offenses are content to throw short for completions rather than try to push the ball downfield. Given the Jets’ personnel – TE heavy – they will probably stick to the same gameplan. Standout WR Garrett Wilson leads the team in targets, but his yards per reception is 11.9, which is indicative of heavier slot usage. However, they don’t have a combination of elite offensive talent and/or an elite QB. Geno Smith is playing better than expected and could present a problem. However, the Dolphins secondary is playing better than expected also. The 2 outside CBs are doing well in press coverage and Chris Johnson is improving in the slot. Miami’s edge group is heating up. Both Robinson and Uche are excelling in generating pressure when going 1-on-1. Despite not having the sack numbers, Chop is one of the best in the league at generating pressure and generating it fast. The Jets are not a dominant offense. They are lower than Miami in yards per play. Their passing game, while better than Miami’s (everyone’s passing game is better except Tennessee), they still do not average more than 200 yards per game, ranked 23rd at 196.2. They aren’t a dominant rushing team either, ranking 23rd in total yards (567) and 26th in YPC (3.6). This plays right into Miami’s top ranked YPC allowed (3.7) so I would not expect the Jets to have a great day rushing. Altogether, the Dolphins defense has a chance to get some stops and give the offense a chance to get the ball back.
3 REASONS FOR CONCERN
THE JETS PASS DEFENSE
Even without the passing game issues for the Dolphins, the Jets present a problem for opposing passing attacks. The Jets overall allow only 4.8 yards per play, which is tied for 5th best. They allow 4.2 YPC on run defense, so it is shaky. But the passing defense is stout, allowing 185 yards per game, 4th best in the league. They have faced 3 teams in the top 10 in passing yards per game. Each was held well below their season averages. They are especially good at that in their building. In 2 homes games thus far, they’ve held Green Bay, who averages 269.3 passing yards per game to a measly 136 passing yards. They held the Browns, who average 173.5 passing yards per game to 102 passing yards. Green Bay pulled out a win in OT, but the Jets got a win over the Browns. The Jets are 9th in CP allowed at 61.5%. Not only that, but the Jets can dial up the pressure also. The Jets are 7th in sack percentage at 8.1%. They are 10th in pressure percentage at 24.3%. They are also 5th in blitz percentage at 36.0%. Former Packer Kingsley Enagbare is tied for 7th in pass rush win rate at 27% and rookie David Bailey is tied for 6th in the league with 5.0 sacks. A stout pass defense with a high blitz rate is bad news for Miami’s struggling passing game. The good news for the Dolphins’ offense is the Jets have allowed 130+ yards rushing in 3 of the last 4 games and none of those teams average more per carry than Miami. The Dolphins can likely do damage on the ground, but I would not expect this to be the “breakthrough” game for Malik Willis. In fact, the passing game may be uglier than ever this game.
CURSE OF METLIFE STADIUM
MetLife Stadium has seemingly been cursed for players to be injured. It’s a tough road environment, despite the MetLife Takeover. But the field surface is always a major concern. Just because the Dolphins aren’t contending this season doesn’t mean potential injuries aren’t bad. Just like with any team, the Dolphins can ill afford major injuries. Maybe not for the win column aspect, but with the developmental arc of most of this team. Maybe I’m overly concerned about this, but that stadium and field scare me in this regard. Praying for good health for the players over anything else.
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
The Dolphins will have their 4th road game in 6 contests. That in and of itself is tough. Add in the struggling offense, hit-or-miss defense, and the divisional aspect, and this will be a rough go for the Dolphins. The Jets are 2-4 and just lost a division game against the Pats. The Pats will go on the road to face a tough Chicago team at night. The Jets are going to want to stay in this divisional race for as long as they can. Even at 2-4, they are dangerous. They have only lost one game by more than 1 score and that was by only 11 points. They are not a pushover team. And then there’s the win-loss aspect. The Dolphins have enjoyed a decade of success against the Jets in Joe Robbie Hard Rock Stadium. But at Met Life, the teams have nearly alternated wins every season for the last 12 contests beginning in 2014. The bad news to go along with that is if that trend continues, it will be Miami’s turn to lose. Given the circumstances…
I SAID WHAT I SAID
Divisional matchups mean chaos. During the Tom Brady era of the New England Patriots, the Dolphins went into New England and won a total of 3 times. The most notable is the 2008 Wildcat Game. Miami had its fair share of notable wins over the Pats in Miami (Michael Thomas game, Miami Miracle). But 2008 was the last time the Dolphins would see victory in New England. Until 2019, when the “tanking” Dolphins went into Gillette Stadium in week 17 and stole a win from a Brady led team that finished 12-4 and was still fighting for playoff positioning. Had the Pats won that game against a 4-win Dolphins team, they finish 13-3, get a first-round bye, don’t immediately face a feisty Derrick Henry led Titans team and if they make it, would host the Chiefs, who went on to win the championship, at home. So don’t think the Pats didn’t care about that game! Yet, the Dolphins got that win. The Jets are arguably the better team right now. They have a QB that is playing better right now. But that doesn’t mean the Dolphins are automatically out. They played well against a better Vikings team on the road and hung tight against a good Bengals team. Miami has a clear advantage in both rushing offense and defense. This could easily be a loss, but it just as easily be the first win for the Dolphins. In this division, you just never know.
