With the 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 draft classes already reviewed, the next stop in the Chris Ballard draft review series is 2021. This is another class that looks fine on the surface because the Colts did get some useful production, but the longer you sit with it, the more underwhelming it becomes.
The Colts got five serviceable years from Kwity Paye, some flashes from Dayo Odeyingbo, a lot of snaps from Kylen Granson, emergency quarterback depth from Sam Ehlinger, and a very good starting guard
in Will Fries. That sounds decent, but the issue is that nobody from this class is still with the team, and this draft is only five years old.
Round 1, Pick 21: Kwity Paye, EDGE
Paye gave the Colts five serviceable years and was a quality player, but he never became the type of edge rusher you hope to land in the first round.
He was a solid run defender and had stretches where he got hot as a pass rusher, but the overall impact was inconsistent. He felt more like a quality rotational player than a true every-down difference-maker off the edge. That is not a bad player to have on your roster, but it is disappointing from a first-round pick.
The Colts drafted Paye to become one of the key pieces of their pass rush. Instead, he became a dependable but limited player who never fully changed games. He had useful moments, but he was not the kind of rusher offenses had to build their entire protection plan around.
The other issue is that he did not make it beyond five years with the team. For a first-round pick, especially at a premium position like edge rusher, the hope is that the player becomes a long-term building block. Paye never reached that level.
Grade: C+
Round 2, Pick 54: Dayo Odeyingbo, EDGE/DL
Odeyingbo is another player who gave the Colts some production, but not quite enough to feel great about the pick.
He had a mini breakout in 2023 and was still pretty good in 2024. There were flashes of the talent and versatility that made him intriguing as a second-round pick. He could move around the line, rush from different spots, and give the defense some flexibility.
The problem is that the Colts never got the full payoff. The talent was there, and the potential was obvious at times, but he never fully became a consistent impact player in Indianapolis. Then the Bears paid him big money (his first season with them was very underwhelming though), and the Colts were left with a few years of decent production rather than a true long-term piece.
For a second-round pick, that is not a disaster as Dayo was useful. He played meaningful snaps and had stretches where he looked like he was turning a corner. Nevertheless, the overall Colts impact was still fairly limited.
Grade: C+
Round 4, Pick 127: Kylen Granson, TE
Granson is a tough one because he was not completely useless, but he also did very little with a lot of opportunity.
He was drafted to be a receiving tight end and was given plenty of chances to become that player. He started a lot of games, played a lot of snaps, and spent time as one of the Colts’ primary receiving options at the position. The problem is that the production never matched the role.
For the amount of opportunity he received, his numbers were underwhelming. He never became a true weapon, never consistently threatened defenses, and never separated himself as a reliable passing-game piece.
That said, he was a fourth-round pick and the expectations are different there. Even if he was a below-average starter, he still started games and contributed for multiple seasons. There are plenty of fourth-round picks who do far less than that.
So the grade is probably generous, but the draft slot helps him.
Grade: C
Round 5, Pick 165: Shawn Davis, S
Davis did not play a single game for the Colts.
He was cut before the regular season, later moved on to Green Bay, and eventually retired from the league. There is nothing to analyze here from a Colts perspective. A fifth-round pick is not a premium asset, but you still hope the player at least makes the roster or contributes on special teams. Davis gave the Colts nothing.
Grade: F
Round 6, Pick 218: Sam Ehlinger, QB
Ehlinger was drafted to be a backup quarterback, and in that sense, the expectations were never that high.
He ended up starting three games in 2022, and the results were poor. He never looked like he belonged as a legitimate NFL quarterback. He was always a step behind as a passer, and while his mobility gave him some value, it was not enough to make him anything more than an emergency option.
Still, for a late Day 3 pick, you can do worse.
Ehlinger stuck around, knew the offense, and served as a third-string quarterback. You never wanted him playing meaningful snaps, but for where he was drafted, the outcome was not completely awful.
Grade: C-
Round 7, Pick 229: Mike Strachan, WR
Strachan was the classic Colts fan training camp hype player.
He was big, athletic, and moved well enough to get people excited. Fans always love that type of receiver because the traits are obvious. The problem was that Strachan never really learned how to consistently play the position at an NFL level. It also didn’t help that many hyped him up to be the second coming of Jesus Christ.
His routes were poor, he struggled to get open, and he never became a reliable offensive player. He gave the Colts a couple of seasons and played a little bit, so it was not the worst outcome for a seventh-round pick, but there was very little real impact.
The hype was always bigger than the player…
Grade: C-
Round 7, Pick 248: Will Fries, G
Fries was easily the best pick of the class.
Not only was he the best value pick by a mile, he also became the best player from this Colts draft class. For a seventh-round pick to become a starting offensive lineman is already a major win. For that player to become a very good above-average guard for two and a half seasons is outstanding value.
Fries developed into a quality starter and gave the Colts great performances before being signed away by the Vikings for pretty big money. That is exactly what you want from a late-round pick; he was not just a roster filler or special teams player.
This pick saved the class.
This was one of the better value picks of Ballard’s career.
Grade: A
Overall Grade: C+
The 2021 draft class was useful, but not especially impressive.
Paye and Dayo gave the Colts good production for a few seasons, but neither became the high-end defensive line piece the team needed. Granson played a lot and started games, but his production never matched his opportunity. Ehlinger and Strachan stuck around in limited roles, while Davis gave the team nothing.
Fries was the clear bright spot. Getting a quality starting guard in the seventh round is a major win, and he was easily the best player in the class.
Still, the broader picture is disappointing. Nobody from this draft is still on the roster, and the class is only five years old. That says a lot.
C+ might be a little generous, but Paye, Dayo, Granson and Fries gave enough production to keep it from falling lower.
