Heading into Week 5’s matchup against the #3-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish, there is one player who Coaches Belichick and Petrino need to call upon to be better and step up as the team’s leader and X-factor.
It’s not an overly complex observation.
Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has to be better if North Carolina is to stand a chance.
Edwards in Weeks 1 and 2
In the first two games of the 2026 season, Billy Edwards was good and at times almost great. His reputation coming into the season was that of an experienced quarterback
who doesn’t blow you away with his athleticism, but can stand in the pocket, make good decisions, and lead an offense down the field. He generally avoids turnovers and the kind of mistakes that can flip a game on its head, but he’s also unlikely to blow the top off the stadium.
He’s a lot less Michael Vick and a lot more Joe Flacco.
And through the first two games of the season, he looked the part. Against TCU in Ireland, he only posted a 57.1% completion rate, but he avoided any crucial turnovers that could have altered the 15-10 final score in TCU’s favor.
Against ETSU, he comfortably completed 15/20 passes for 244 yards and 2 TDs and led a balanced attack up and down Chris Smith Field that allowed his running backs to feast for 161 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
After the first two games, it was apparent the 2026 version of Billy Edwards was still not flashy. Those behind him on the depth chart likely possess greater talent and higher upside. But he is a quarterback you can trust to win ballgames the boring way.
Traveling Down to Clemson
The road trip down to Clemson, South Carolina, brought new challenges for Edwards.
The game started off well enough. Touchdown drive followed by touchdown drive followed by back-to-back field goal attempts. With 8:36 left in the 2nd quarter, Edwards had the Tar Heel offense up 17-3, the Clemson fans were booing their own team, and Edwards looked comfortable navigating whatever packages Clemson’s defense threw at him.
And then, it all just flipped.
- 3-and-out to end the 2nd quarter.
- 3-and-out to start the 3rd quarter
- Fumble by the running back on the first play from scrimmage
- 6 plays, 22 yards gained, Punt
- 3-and-out
- 12 plays, 60 yards gained, Field Goal
- Turnover on downs
- Interception
In the first half, Edwards completed 7/15 passing for 83 yards and 1 TD (5.5 yards/attempt). In the second half, Edwards completed 6/15 passes for 52 yards and 0 TDs (3.5 yards/attempt). The drop-off in yards per attempt is noticeable, but does not explain the difference in outcome on its own.
The rushing game was comparable in both halves: 19 attempts for 112 yards (5.9 yards/carry) in the first half and 20 attempts for 102 yards (5.1 yards/carry) in the second half. North Carolina didn’t move away from the run game, and the run game didn’t stop being effective.
So what changed?
The boring, not-so-flashy quarterback helming the offense stopped converting on third down.
In both halves, North Carolina attempted 7 third-down conversions. In the first half, the offense converted 4 of 7. In the second half, they only converted one third down, which did not come until the final drive of the game.
First half third downs: 4 of 7, 57%
UNC converted:
- 3rd-and-6: Edwards to Shipp, 23 yards
- 3rd-and-2: Demon June, 4-yard run
- 3rd-and-6: Edwards to Hall, 15-yard TD
- 3rd-and-6: Edwards scramble/run, 17 yards
Three of those four conversions came on drives that produced points.
Second-half third downs: 1 of 7, 14%
UNC failed on:
- 3rd-and-4: incomplete
- 3rd-and-9: incomplete
- 3rd-and-5: sack
- 3rd-and-8: 7-yard completion, one yard short
- 3rd-and-4: zero-yard June run
- 3rd-and-2: one-yard Hall run
Sprinkle in no passing plays of 15+ yards in the second half (three 15+ yard passing plays in the first half), and you end up with an offense that can’t stay on the field.
Edwards did not turn the ball over until the final drive. But he could not find ways to move the chains or create big plays in the second half.
Turning Towards Notre Dame
So why is Billy Edwards the X-Factor against Notre Dame?
Because he was the single point of failure against Clemson.
The running game remained strong in both halves. The defense softened in the second half, but not excessively. It was Edwards’ inability to create and sustain momentum that doomed the Tar Heels.
Edwards needs to not panic against Notre Dame and be the boring quarterback. He needs to protect the football and avoid turnovers against a defense that will be tougher and meaner than anything he’s faced this season.
But he also needs to be a downfield threat. He needs to convert on third down. He needs to find ways to keep his offense on the field.
If he can do that, the Notre Dame game could look a lot more like the first half of the Clemson game.
Touchdown.
Touchdown.
Field Goal Attempt.
Field Goal Attempt.
17-3 Tar Heels with 8:36 left in the half.
