For the second night in a row, the D-Backs turned to a starting pitcher looking to return to form. Last night, that strategy worked out poorly and introduced more questions than answers. Tonight, it went substantially better as Ryne Nelson worked seven strong innings of three-run ball on just four hits. Nelson was inarguably the team’s ace last season, compiling 3.4 bWAR in 23 starts with a 3.39 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. There was probably a little regression/good luck hidden inside those top line numbers
as evidenced by a 3.71 FIP and 3.93 expected ERA, but I’d defy anyone to prove to me that they expected the kind of nightmarish start Nelson has turned in so far. Entering play tonight, he had compiled -0.7 bWAR in 8 starts with an unsightly 5.68 ERA and 1.263 WHIP. There’s a worthwhile deep dive to be done on what’s causing his struggles, but that can be saved for another time. Tonight, he looked like the pitcher from last year, managing not to walk a single batter in his outing – a major issue for him so far this year. His other bugaboo emerged though – allowing home runs – as all three of his runs came on one swing from Jake Burger who just snuck a ball on the right side of the right field foul pole to open the game’s scoring in the fifth.
The bigger struggle continues to be the sputtering Arizona offense. They had absolutely no trouble in creating traffic on the basepaths with 10 hits and 8 walks. There were just two innings when the D-Backs’ offense was retired in order in the entire game. The trouble came when they tried to convert those baserunners into runs as the offense was a woeful 3-for-16 with runners in scoring position and stranded an astounding 13 baserunners for the game. That dynamic was the dominant storyline heading into the top of the ninth inning as Arizona was 1-for-11 entering the inning while trailing by a single run. But the offense finally found their swing at the end of the game with Carroll immediately putting himself into scoring position with a leadoff double and then taking third on a passed ball by Danny Jansen. Geraldo Perdomo earned a walk and Nolan Arenado worked one of the at-bats of the year by seeing eight pitche before punching the ninth into the left-center gap to score Carroll and put both Perdomo and himself into scoring position. Ildemaro Vargas then broke up his 0-for-4 day by dunking a ball into shallow left field to plate both runners and give the D-Backs their first lead of the game.
This whole night felt like it had the makings for a season-altering momentum shift. Nelson had his best outing of the year, the offense finally found some late-inning magic with runners in scoring position, and there were plenty of positive signs for individual players like Marte. And then the bottom of the ninth inning happened. Paul Sewald, who I’m contractually obligated to mention was a perfect 9-for-9 in save opportunities so far this season, entered and quickly retired both Seager and Carter, sandwiched around a Jung single to put him and the team on the precipice of a series win. Sadly, the game and inning quickly unraveled as Sewald hung a sweeper in the middle of the plate to Duran that plated Jung, walked Osuna on five pitches, and then left a sweeper over the heart of the plate for Burger to deliver the final nail in the blown save by scoring Duran. That was evidently enough torture for Torey Lovullo who opted to bring in Juan Morillo to try and force extra innings, but Jansen, the backup catcher hitting just above his weight rocketed the first ball he saw past the dive of Arenado to walk it off for the Rangers.
So, instead of a much-needed series win that might act as a successful blueprint moving forward, the team is left with even more questions than answers. It seems as if no amount of lineup tinkering or prospect call-ups has been able to shake the Arizona offense out of its malaise and the team’s pitching (both in the bullpen and in the rotation) have significant question marks themselves. It’s difficult not to be disappointed in the team’s record to this point. There have been some imminently winnable games that have escaped them that could really come back to haunt them by the end of the season as we saw last year. There will be plenty of time to think on all of those questions on the long plane ride to Colorado and tomorrow’s off day. Here’s hoping they’re able to find some answers at altitude this weekend.
