The win streak has come to an end. In all of Northwestern’s losses this season, Preston Stone has failed to throw a touchdown pass. He also had multiple interceptions in each of the losses. The Wildcats
and the Cornhuskers have now split the last 10 matchups at 5-5, with eight of the games being decided by one score. This game was dominated on the ground on both sides, with both Caleb Komolafe and Emmett Johnson rushing for two touchdowns on 125 and 124 yards respectively. Special teams continue to be a bit of a struggle for NU as well, with a kick return touchdown being one of the reasons for Nebraska’s victory. I’m also not here to talk about the refs, but it wasn’t the best officiated game on both sides. Enough chit-chat; here’s a look at the numbers behind the Wildcats’ road loss:
The Numbers
Stone actually graded out better than Dylan Raiola: a 49.3 PFF offensive grade compared to a 49.2 PFF offensive grade. It was still Stone’s third worst PFF offensive grade of the season, ahead of Oregon and Tulane. He was 15-of-29 for 159 passing yards with two interceptions, and his PFF passing grade matched exactly with last week’s 51.5. For the second time this year, Stone didn’t have a PFF “big time throw” (a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window). Of his nine interceptions thrown this year, eight of them have come across the three losses. In every game Northwestern has won, Stone has thrown at least one touchdown pass like I alluded to earlier.
After going down with an upper-body injury against Purdue, Komolafe was able to play in Lincoln. Not only is he 41st in the country and sixth in the Big Ten in rushing yards, but he has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games. He was the third-highest graded player offensively for the ‘Cats, coming in at a 71.4 PFF offensive grade (his second highest of the season). Joseph Himon II had his second-lowest yardage total of the season against Nebraska. While he did have 12 total touches (four receptions, eight carries), he only amounted to 49 yards. While the eye test still looked good with Himon and he did have a big 17-yard run, he still has yet to find the end zone this season. Also of note is that Dashun Reeder didn’t play at all. Griffin Wilde led NU in receiving yards with 54, but only on three grabs. His four-game touchdown streak came to an end in this one, but he still saw eight targets.
Once again, the offensive line did its job. Evan Beerntsen and Ezomo Oratokhai stood out in run blocking as both posted PFF run blocking grades to land them in the top-50 in the FBS and top-10 in the Big Ten among offensive linemen. The pass blocking was even more impressive. Caleb Tiernan posted an 89.9 PFF pass blocking grade. Not only did he lead all Big Ten offensive lineman with that grade, but it was good for second in the country (and would be first among Power 4 teams). In just the Big Ten, Jackson Carsello, Martes Lewis, Deuce McGuire and Oratokhai graded in the top-40 for pass blocking among offensive linemen. Northwestern didn’t give up a single sack. Enough with the numbers, let’s look at the film:
The Good
The run game was crazy impressive once again. Komolafe didn’t look like he got banged up last week whatsoever. Additionally, Stone showed a lot of potential when it came to extending plays; something that stood out more this week than all the others.
Running wild
Komolafe is living up to his nickname of “The Beast” more and more each week. His ball carrier vision is clearly improving each week as the offensive line has been a force to be reckoned with.
The first thing that stands out to me on this play is McGuire. He blocks his defender completely out of the play and massively opens up the B-gap for Komolafe. Beerntsen’s block then allows Komolafe to cut in and go through the A-gap between himself and Carsello before finding some daylight and gaining 20 on the play. Impressive sequence of run blocking.
While this is just a four yard touchdown run, the blocking is as impressive as ever. The pitch play out to the left side of the field is accompanied by Oratokhai pulling across and acting as the lead blocker for Komolafe. He delivers a powerful block on a defender to allow Komolafe to power his way into the end zone through other defenders without being hit from multiple angles.
This is the top-end speed we haven’t seen yet from Komolafe. What this play also does is speak to the attention that this NU offensive line draws. Lined up in a full house pistol set with the tight end on the line and just one receiver, it screams run play. Nebraska crashes in on Komolafe as he first takes it up the middle. The scheme of this play to have Wilde cut inwards and bring the defender with him, causing a scrum in the middle, worked to perfection as the blocking paved a wide open running lane for Komolafe to take off.
Improv
Stone really impressed me with his ability to extend plays. The offensive line did a great job to allow him to get outside the pocket and make things happen. It’s an aspect of Stone’s game I haven’t seen to this degree before, and it should be something he continues to do as it definitely helped.
Stone does a fantastic job to evade the defender and roll out to his right. While rolling out, he signals to Hayden Eligon II to come back for the ball. Eligon does just that and Stone connects with him on the run for an eight yard gain. This play would’ve been a sack if it was Stone of a few weeks ago. He’s become more comfortable with his offensive line, but more importantly with using his legs.
This was the first play of Northwestern’s final offensive drive. Like the previous play, Stone rolls out to his right. He did this off instinct rather than because of pressure though, and the offensive line was holding up impeccably here. Great awareness from Wilde to show some improv of his own as he saw his quarterback on the run. Wilde sees the linebacker start making a beeline for Stone, so he cuts upfield to find a hole in the zone as Stone zips it in.
The Bad
It’s about preventing mistakes and focusing on the fundamentals. Turnovers continue to be an achilles heel for Northwestern, especially in its losses. The fundamentals I refer to are related to missing open receivers, both on the throw and before the throw.
Turnovers
I feel like a broken record. For the second straight week, I have a turnovers section in “The Bad.” As I’ve repeatedly said, Northwestern is 0-3 this season when Stone has multiple interceptions in a game.
This play is just unfortunate. Throwing an interception with this field positioning only hurts yourselves as Nebraska capitalized by scoring a touchdown three plays later. Stone does a good job of maneuvering in the pocket and stepping up, but there’s an argument to be made that he should’ve tucked the ball and ran for a few yards. Wilde was open on the cross and the two maintained eye contact, but the throw was just behind him as it was tipped up and capitalized on by the Cornhusker defense. This pick doesn’t go entirely on Stone because the golden rule in football is that you should catch a ball that hits your hands, but still the decision-making behind throwing the ball could’ve been a bit better.
The first interception wasn’t bad when compared to this one. With the game tied at 21-21 and the ball nearing the target range for Jack Olsen, a screen pass or a simple slant across the middle could have sufficed. Going for all the 14 yards in one play didn’t seem to be the best decision. Stone had ages in the pocket thanks to the play of the offensive line, but he threw it directly to a defender. Hunter Welcing has become more reliable each week as a receiving option, and he executed his block and release route perfectly. Stone was already laser-focused on Wilde that he didn’t see Welcing with green grass ahead of him. This interception could have easily been avoided if Stone waited just a tad longer.
Missed throws
While Stone did connect on a few deep shots, some of his throws were just a bit out of reach for his receivers.
This one to Drew Wagner is a throw that Stone has been making pretty consistently with his guys this season. Even though a defender did start to penetrate through the offensive line, the blocking still gave him plenty of time to make this throw. He just put it a bit too far out of reach of the open Wagner. It looked more like a throw-away than a target to his receiver as Wagner couldn’t even get close to it while diving.
This was the final offensive play for Northwestern. While there may or may not have been a defensive hold or defensive pass interference, it’s besides the point. Wilde still had a step on his man at the end and Stone airmailed it. I still don’t fully understand why the deep shot was taken at this stage of the game. I’m not suggesting the ‘Cats run the ball, but with two timeouts and six yards to go before a first down, go for the sticks. The fact that all of the receivers started by going deep baffles me here. Also, even with Wilde being taken down by the defensive back, the ball was still a bit too out of reach.
Final Thoughts
Northwestern could have (and should have) won this game. The blocking was fantastic, especially in pass pro. From here on out though the schedule is a gauntlet and arguably consists of four road games. Even though Wrigley is a home game, Ohio State and Illinois fans tremendously outnumbered Northwestern fans last season. Michigan will almost certainly do the same, and Minnesota might as well. Mistake-free football needs to be an emphasis for the ‘Cats as this game was under their fingertips. If just a few plays change then there could’ve been a whole different conversation. What did happen though is that Northwestern is the reason that Northwestern lost. This team can compete in the Big Ten, it’s just about cleaning up a few things here and there.
