Welcome to Inside the Suns, your weekly deep down analysis of the current Phoenix Suns team. Each week the Fantable — a round table of Bright Siders — give their takes on the Suns’ latest issues and news.
Fantable Questions of the Week
Q1: This offseason, the Suns will have the option to go forward in either of two directions. They can shed some salary to stay under the luxury tax level or keep the team largely intact, which probably pushes them over the 1st tax apron. Which option do you think is likely the best one for the team?
GuarGuar: I think we will probably try to go under the first apron, but I really don’t want to split this group up. They are a really good team when healthy and can compete with anyone. I’d love to see what another year of continuity could accomplish. Ishbia is an owner willing to spend, so I can see us
keeping almost everyone this offseason.
Diamondhacks: I let Mat Ishbia navigate NBA aprons. Perhaps more central to how the Suns best position themselves for sustained excellence may be Ott and Gregory’s demonstrated ability to identify and assimilate surprisingly useful contributors, at least so far, at reasonable cost.
This ability dovetails with my generic belief that standing pat, primarily to “hold onto” older players deemed mission critical, is most often a suboptimal long-term strategy.
Ashton: What a great team. Right, Suns fans?
You really do not want to mess with the gears that turn into what almost every national pundit describes as a “surprising Suns team”. I know I am surprised. That should be enough to support going into the luxury tax. Our very own Rod Argent had a comment that nothing really prohibits the Suns from going into this area.
But, in Brian Gregory we trust, and if he can continue to find talent in a pool of scrubs, then let’s avoid the luxury repeater tax and the first apron. This season has been defined, on an almost weekly basis, of the next upcoming players by commentators and writers alike. You pick a player favorite on recent bias. And then another favorite emerges.
I hate to say it all, but to accomplish these goals, some bait must be cut for the betterment of the Sun’s organization. So, my contrarian view is to stay under the luxury tax and first round and try to find the next NBA potential player hungry enough to stay and play the position.
OldAz: I probably have some of my facts wrong on this one, and Rod will mock me terribly as this is in his wheelhouse, but here goes. As I understand it, the 1st Apron should be about $210 million next season, and the Suns currently have 12 players under contract for about $161.5 million and another $23.2 million in dead cap money.
The three players from this year’s team NOT already signed for next season are Gillespie, Williams, and Goodwin. My best guess on those contracts would be about $14 million for Gillespie, $12-15 million for Williams, and $4-5 million for Goodwin, which would put them about $5-10 million over the 1st tax to keep it all together. However, as Fleming develops, Brooks gets healthy, and Dunn finds his footing, I think there is a path to basically doing both by trading Royce O’Neale (and his $10M salary) and taking back as little in salary as possible.
Getting under the tax for a second year would be huge, as it would completely reset any potential repeater penalties for the next few seasons. Unless my numbers are off (likely) and until we see more of how Green fits in with this current group, this would be my strategy going into the off-season.
Rod: Staying under the 1st tax apron won’t be a big problem next year, but staying under the luxury tax line could be. Contrary to what some may believe, the luxury tax line and the 1st tax apron are not the same thing. The luxury tax line is at $201.7 million, the 1st TA starts at $210.3 million. The combined salary for 11 players under contract next year, plus the dead money on the cap sheet, leaves the Suns only about $16.7 million under the luxury tax line. That would cover re-signing Collin Gillespie to the max amount he can be paid, but there wouldn’t be enough left after that to sign a single player to a vet minimum contract without going over the luxury tax line.
Basically, the Suns can’t avoid paying luxury taxes next year without moving some contracts to clear some room on their cap sheet. They can certainly do that, but the question is whether they can do that without the team taking a step (or two) backwards quality-wise. While that might be possible, taking a step forward while cutting salaries would likely be difficult without some of the younger guys on the roster taking big leaps in their level of play.
I could see the Suns dipping their toes into the 1st tax apron waters to start next season, but not diving in headfirst. If they decide that they could lose too much by staying below it, they could cross that line to begin the season and then make some moves to drop back below it before the trade deadline if things don’t pan out. Where teams start the season regarding the tax line and the TAs doesn’t matter nearly as much as where they finish. If they finish it below the tax line, it still counts as a season under it and the repeater tax penalties are wiped from their slate. To me, this would seem to be the best option for them this offseason.
Q2: How much of a factor do you think Mark Williams’ injury will play in his possible return to the Suns after this season and the size of his future contract offer(s)?
GuarGuar: Mark’s got a long injury history. I mean, we spent the whole summer just trying to get his body ready to play basketball. He didn’t practice most of training camp. He looked pretty durable so far, but this recent injury, hopefully, is just a little speed bump and doesn’t linger. I can’t see us giving him a contract with many years on it; that would be pretty risky. I can see a short amount of years, but a high annual salary average for those years.
Diamondhacks: Both Mark’s performance and financial projections likely hinge on the nature of the injury. Better if it’s a one-off, perceived as something he can put behind him. Worse if it’s deemed chronic or pre-existing.
Ashton: Again, I am so impressed that he lasted this long off the injury list (Lakers, you all need better medical evaluators). This should be enough to justify increased interest and a pay bump by other interested NBA teams. The Suns should let him walk or try to trade him for a late first in 2026) as per Q1 requirement. MW did his job with the Suns organization with the opportunity that he had. Like Sam Darnold in the NFL (Seattle), a player can come to the Valley as a reclamation project in the NBA and prove themselves worthy. Not so sure about the Cards organization, though.
The Suns will have to rely on Oso and KM (please stop with the Man Man references), and they are doing quite well with that duo. Fleming is blowing up to be someone who can man (man) the PF position beside Brooks (unless he blows his career up in smoke).
And with the 47th pick, the Suns need to take a serious look at Tobe Awaka, 100 miles down south. This guy powers through everything in the front court for the offensive rebound and is smart enough to pass the ball out or just go up again to draw the foul.
Enjoy the March Madness, all! Remember, these players are the foundation of what the NBA is built upon.
OldAz: The center position has been marginalized in the modern NBA unless you are someone like Jokic or Wemby. However, the center position is also one that is prone to injury while still being able to draw massive contracts (Anthony Davis? Joel Embiid?). I actually think this season really helps him in this case, because he has played more games and been effective. This is assuming he comes back healthy and contributes in the playoffs, however.
What works against him the most is that he is still young and has yet to establish how dominant he can be at the position. Average starting centers are making $15 million -$20 million in the NBA, and center-needy teams would love to add someone like Williams, who hustles and plays the way Williams can. Heck, every time DA has a bad game in LA, their fans go back to lamenting that they could have had Williams, whose motor runs so much hotter. I suspect that Williams will get a deal somewhere between $12-$15 million per year on this next contract, and if he can replicate the number of games played from this season throughout that contract while also building on his skill set, then he could be in line for a Miles Turner-type deal the next time around. However, I don’t see any team going over that this time around simply because of his injury history.
Rod: As a restricted free agent, it’s definitely going to have other teams leery of giving him an offer sheet…or at least offer him a big one. Depending on how he finishes this season, I could even see him back with the Suns next year playing for the QO ($8.8 mil) before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2027-28. While that would be bad for him, it might be the best thing for the Suns considering how Khaman has progressed. I’d like to keep him on the team but I think Khaman and Oso are the Suns’ long-term tag team at center and wouldn’t risk a high salary contract on Williams with the admittedly limited info I have on his present injury.
Q3: In the long run, who do you believe will develop into the better player overall, Ryan Dunn or Rasheer Fleming?
GuarGuar: Fleming is better right now, and I think he will continue to be the better of the two. Fleming’s a better athlete, scorer, shooter, and rebounder than Dunn. They are neck and neck on defense, and I’ve seen more improvement from Fleming in this single season than Dunn has in his year and a half so far. Dunn’s offensive limitations will hold him back as long as he has them. My bet is on Sheer to be the better player going forward 100%.
Diamondhacks: Ryan Dunn can continue to improve, but after 2500 NBA minutes, he still looks like he’s mostly trying to fit in and not screw up too much. Rasheer Fleming, at 350 mins, is starting to call for the ball. And his mates are looking for him. I believe it’s less a cocky thing than a mutual learned confidence that he can knock down a shot, take his man to the paint, or even rifle a one-handed dime on the run to an open teammate at the arc. Not all the time, certainly, or even most of the time. But my early general impression is that, for such an inexperienced player, his teammates already like sharing the court with him.
Ashton: I stated last week that “Sheer” was my most overlooked player on Inside the Suns. So, I must stand by that statement, even if I was the only one out of the Fantable to make that statement. Look, I make statements that age like milk, but in this case, this is more like fine cheese or wine. Fleming is the easy answer. Dunn is maybe Done.
Again, I am looking forward to hungry NBA players who want to make a name for themselves in a very competitive market. I just do not see Dunn there with recency bias or as a long-term solution.
OldAz: This is still way too early to tell. Fleming is such a physical specimen that it is tempting to just go with him, but in reality, NBA history is littered with freakish talent that only ever showed out in spurts or had some other issue derail an otherwise promising career.
Dunn, on the other hand, is suffering through a rougher sophomore season and is struggling to find his footing on a team that could use a bigger wing at either forward position. Additionally, while the Suns are certainly leaning into better practices when it comes to developing young players, Dunn was not drafted by the current leadership and has not found the same level of success as Oso this year.
Who ends up being the better player long term will entirely depend on their desire and continued effort over the next 5+ years. Growth is not linear, and it takes perseverance and a strong mental makeup to overcome the struggles that will inevitably come. For now, if I had to bet, it would probably be on Fleming, but only because his size puts him at such an advantage to get playing time on the current “7 dwarfs” roster construction the Suns have and because his outside shot has found a whole lot more consistency compared to Dunn’s (so far).
Rod: The sample size for Fleming is still pretty small, but he already just looks more comfortable on an NBA court than Dunn, who is in his second year and has over 6 times the total game time minutes of Rasheer. This isn’t meant to be a knock on Dunn. Dunn is a good player and should have a good NBA career, but he often seems to be playing outside his comfort zone when on offense. I don’t see that in Rasheer. In fact, he seems more and more comfortable on an NBA court the more he plays, and he’s largely effective on both ends of the court. Neither one may ever approach the “star” level of play in the NBA, but at this moment, I believe Rasheer has the higher ceiling.
As always, many thanks to our Fantable members for all their extra effort this week!
Quotes of the Week
“I ain’t gonna lie, I’m just playing right now…staying in the moment.” – Rasheer Fleming
“We went again with no true 5, really opens up the floor for him (Jalen Green), specifically. That’s been the solution the last two nights (vs Bucks and Pacers). Doesn’t mean it will be tomorrow night.” – Jordan Ott
“His energy is on 24/7.” – Jordan Ott on Jordan Goodwin
“That’s two buckets getters doing what they do best.” – Ryan Dunn on Booker and Green combining for 79 points vs the Pacers
“You never can anticipate everything that’s going to happen in the game, but once situations come up that we haven’t covered or come up yet this season, we try to address it right then and there. Talk through it. Those lines of communication are growing. We need to speed it up. Practice time is limited this time of the year.” – Jordan Ott
Suns Trivia/History
Random Suns stats (from Stat Defender/Twitter):
Phoenix Suns — 14.3 Offensive Rebounds Per Game Post All-Star Break – Tied for 2nd best in the NBA
Phoenix Suns — 18.2 Fouls committed Per Game Post All-Star Break – Tied for 5th fewest in the NBA
Phoenix Suns — 19.1 Points Scored Per Game Off Turnovers Post All-Star Break – 9th best in the NBA
Phoenix Suns — 1.08 Points Per Possession Given Up In Transition For The Regular Season – Tied for 2nd fewest in the NBA
5th Best EFG% On ISOs For The 2025-26 NBA Regular Season – Devin Booker (53.8% EFG%)
In Thursday’s game against the Pacers, Devin Booker’s 43 pts and Jaylen Green’s 36 pts marked the first time a Suns duo scored 40+ and 35+ in the same regular season game since Amare Stoudemire (41 pts) and Steve Nash (36 pts) did it on 3/31/08 against Denver in a 132-117 Suns win.
On March 15, 2009, on the second night of a back-to-back, the SSOL Phoenix Suns scored the most fast-break points ever in a game (56) during a 154-130 win on the road against the Golden State Warriors. This game is also tied for the 4th-highest scoring output by the Suns in team history. The game it is tied with was played almost exactly 20 years earlier on March 23, 1989 and was also on the second night of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State. The Suns won that one 154-124.
On March 19, 1969, NBA Commissioner Walter Kennedy flipped a coin, Phoenix called ‘heads,’ and it turned up ‘tails. Thus, Milwaukee chose first in the NBA Draft, eventually selecting Lew Alcindor (now Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) while Phoenix picked Neal Walk with the 2nd pick.
On March 22, 2000, the Suns lost Jason Kidd for the remainder of the regular season after he broke his ankle during a 114-93 win over Sacramento at America West Arena. The following day, the Suns announced that Kevin Johnson was coming out of retirement to help his former team in its time of need. Johnson, 34, whose career average of 9.2 apg ranks fourth in NBA history, had not played since the 1997-98 season.
This Eeek’s Game Schedule
Monday, March 16 – Suns @ Boston Celtics (4:30 pm)
Tuesday, March 17 – Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves (5:00 pm)
Thursday, March 19 – Suns @ San Antonio Spurs (5:00 pm)
This Week’s Valley Suns Game Schedule
Saturday, March 14 – Valley Suns @ Windy City Bulls (5:00 pm)
Tuesday, March 17 – Valley Suns vs Stockton Kings (7:00 pm) ESPN+
Thursday, March 19 – Valley Suns @ San Diego Clippers (4:00 pm)
Important Future Dates
March 28 – NBA G League Regular Season ends
March 31 – 2026 NBA G League Playoffs begin
April 12 – Regular season ends (All 30 teams play)
April 13 – Rosters set for NBA Playoffs 2026 (3 p.m. ET)
April 14-17 – SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament
April 18 – NBA Playoffs begin
