In the span of a week Purdue went from leading the Big Ten and being on the cusp of a No. 1 seed to a three-game losing streak and the season threatening to unravel entirely. The games have been close. Purdue has lost three games by 11 total points. In two of them the Boilers were leading with less than 4 minutes left. If we get even one of those things are much better right now. Instead, the season that once had so much promise is at a crossroads.
First, the good: There are 10 games left to play
in conference play. We have seen how good Purdue can be, and it is 100% possible they could win the remaining 10 games, win the Big Ten, and get said No. 1 seed. In the last 10 games Purdue would pick up six tier 1 wins, knock off three of its nearest competitors in the conference, and probably win the league. Every opportunity is still there to achieve this season’s goals.
Now: The bad. Let’s be straight: Purdue looks like a broken team right now. Its defense cannot defend the three-point line and that is a huge reason Purdue has lost all three games. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been erased on the glass, which has caused incredible damage to everything Purdue tries to do. Fletcher Loyer is in a slump. Braden Smith continues to play well, but it is obvious he is pushing, and that has led to turnovers and runouts.
We have seen how good Purdue can be. It ran Texas Tech off the floor. It easily handled Wisconsin at home. It was dominant in several other wins. That’s what makes this so frustrating. We know this iteration of Purdue basketball is better than this. We have seen it. It is just time for Purdue to act like it.
The next two games are against two of the worst teams in the league. Maryland and Oregon are a combined 2-16 in conference play. Those are golden opportunities to get things right and regain momentum before a huge game February 10 at Nebraska. Assuming Purdue wins the next two, that Nebraska game will basically decide if this team can still take that next step or not.
Personally, I have no doubt whatsoever that Purdue can turn this around, still win the Big Ten, and even the national championship. I would much rather have this be the low point than in March. All the tools are there and this is still a very, very, VERY good team. Will they do it, though?
I trust Matt Painter. We will see how this plays out, but there is work to do.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 17-4, 7-3 Big Ten
NET: 11 (down six from last week)
KenPom: 8 (Down 1 from last week
Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 3
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 18 Alabama (Away), 17 Texas Tech (Neutral), 21 Iowa (Home), 26 Auburn (Neutral), 39 Wisconsin (Away), 50 USC (Away)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 48 Washington (Home), 53 Akron (Home)
Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 17 Texas Tech (Neutral), 21 Alabama (Away), 22 Iowa (Home), 28 Auburn (Neutral), 42 Wisconsin (Away), 51 USC (Away)
Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 54 Akron (Home), 61 Washington (Home)
Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (5-15, 1-8 MVC) – NET 285, KenPom 285 – Evansville’s only game in the past week was postponed, as weather delayed their Sunday game at Southern Illinois.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (12-10, 8-3 Horizon) – NET 133, KenPom 130 – Oakland suffered a devastating conference home loss at home against IU-Indianapolis 103-85 on Saturday, but did bounce back to beat Detroit 95-87. They trail Wright State by half a game in the conference.
Alabama Crimson Tide (14-6, 4-3 SEC) – NET 21, KenPom 17 – The Tide earned a split in the last few weeks. They lost to Tennessee 79-73, but recovered to beat Missouri 90-64. It is still a solid win on the road, but not an Elite win.
Akron Zips (17-4, 8-1 MAC) – NET 54, KenPom 53 – Akron remains behind undefeated Miami-Hydroxide after beating Ohio 86-65 and Toledo 91-81. This Friday they have a huge home game against Kent State, where the winner will be the main competitor to the Redhawks and most likely to be the second team in a two-bid MAC.
Memphis Tigers (9-10, 4-3 American) – NET 125, KenPom 105 – Memphis lost both games in the past week, 83-66 to Tulsa and 74-59 to Will Berg and Wichita State. The lack of consistency means this is an average win at best.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (16-4, 6-1 Big 12) – NET 17, KenPom 17 – This remains Purdue’s best game of the season, and the showcase of what we know this team can be. Tech has now won five in a row after beating Baylor 92-73 and fellow former No. 1 Houston 90-86. If you’re down on the Boilers right now, just remember this game.
Eastern Illinois Panthers (9-12, 5-5 Ohio Valley) – NET 307, KenPom 311 – Eastern Illinois got an ugly 59-51 overtime win over Southern Indiana, but then lost 73-68 at Morehead State.
Iowa State Cyclones (18-2, 5-2 Big 12) – NET 7, KenPom 5 – The Cyclones have two straight wins over UCF 87-57 and Oklahoma State 84-71 to bounce back from their own two-game losing streak.
Marquette Golden Eagles (8-14, 3-8 Big East) – NET 130, KenPom 111 – The Golden Eagles lost at Butler 87-76, but got a nice 86-62 win over Creighton last night. This is probably the most disappointing team Purdue has played.
Auburn Tigers (13-7, 4-3 SEC) – NET 28, KenPom 26 – Auburn has now won three in a row after winning at Florida on Saturday 76-67. This is still a solid tournament team that makes us look good.
Kent State Golden Flashes (16-5, 7-2 MAC) – NET 139, KenPom 140 – The Flashes got a 76-75 doubler overtime win at Eastern Michigan and a 72-57 win over Ohio to stay on pace in the MAC. They won’t be an at large team, but they are a threat for the autobid.
Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Auburn
Possible NCAA teams (Could win Autobids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland
Could play to the Bubble: Akron
