It was more of a ferret drowning than an instant massacre, but the Michigan Wolverines looked like a No. 1 seed playing a No. 16 in the win over Howard Thursday evening, setting up an interesting Second Round contest with the Saint Louis Billikens. The Atlantic 10 regular season champions are ranked just outside the top 30 per Kenpom and absolutely throttled Georgia in the First Round.
Dusty May is tasked with making it seven consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances where Michigan has advanced to at
least the Sweet 16, with a chance to do so against good friend Josh Schertz. Despite the 1.28 PPP-demolition by Schertz’s Billikens, they will be big underdogs on Saturday, with the tip-off coming just 36 hours after their opening-round win. This could be pretty uncomfortable, but it also could easily be another double-digit win and trip to the second weekend.
Second Round: No. 1 Michigan (32-3) vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (29-5)
Date & Time: Saturday, March 21, 12:10 p.m. ET
Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
TV/Streaming: CBS
These two teams have not met since December 1970. The last time Michigan faced an A10 opponent in the Tournament was the win over No. 5 VCU in the Second Round during the 2013 title game run. In terms of playing this sort of seed in the first weekend, the Wolverines’ last berth as a No. 1 seed involved a feisty battle against Cam Thomas and No. 8 LSU in the covid-affected 2021 Tournament.
Two Stats to Watch
Saint Louis 3PT Shooting: 40.2% (2nd)
The Billikens have the second-best three-point percentage in the entire country and take a lot of them. Their top-four shooters in terms of volume all have at least 100 attempts on the year and have each hit at least 40% of them which is…terrifying. With the well-known Robbie Avila playing the five spot, the Michigan defense must stay on its toes every single possession, as everyone on the floor can shoot at any time.
Perhaps fortunately, defensively lapses might be less likely after watching Howard drain 14 of its 29 attempts from deep. Though threes have not necessarily been the cause of all of Michigan’s losses, there have certainly been some warning signs over the past few months in this department, with switches on screens leaving deadly shooters open too often. Saint Louis loves the dribble handoffs, and slowness to react can be devastating as well.
Like May, Schertz preaches shot quality, which means a lot of threes, but also a lot of shots near the hoop. Interestingly, it was actually this elite shooting inside the arc (33-of-44) that killed Georgia, with Saint Louis hitting just 32% of its attempts from deep on Thursday. The Wolverines will need to trust that its bigs can handle their own in the paint and keep pressure on the perimeter, as that feels like the more dangerous avenue.
Saint Louis Adj. Tempo: 71.2 (20th)
An old adage is that slower giants are more prone to upsets in March, but that should not be an issue for the Wolverines. Instead, they will see a team in the Second Round that likes to play just as fast as they do, and that could work in favor of the better squad. Yes, Saint Louis is going to get some transition looks off Michigan turnovers, but there are going to be even more opportunities going the other way.
This is because the Billikens turn the ball over as much (or more) than the Wolverines do, and they do not grab many offensive rebounds (and would not be expected to anyway given the size mismatch). Off these misses and turnovers, expect Michigan to run the floor and use its athleticism to attack the rim. While transition threes are tempting, this is a game to really take advantage in the paint and play with authority, as worst case this will lead to plenty of fouls.
Both offenses can be really potent, so limiting the ability to run is a huge key. If this turns into a half-court type of contest, one has to think that the more talented squad is going to win, especially given the strength of the Wolverines’ frontcourt. However, if Michigan is sloppy with the ball and late on rotations, Saint Louis can light up the scoreboard as well. Prepare for tons of action on both ends all game.
