Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, August 28 at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Network: Big Ten Network
- Location: Camp Randall Stadium — Madison, WI
- Spread: Wisconsin (-17.5)
- Over/under: 39.5
- All-time series: Wisconsin leads, 1-0
- Last meeting: Wisconsin 58, Miami (OH) 0 — September 12, 2015
- Current streak: Wisconsin, 1 (2015)
Setting the scene
Pack it up, pack it in. Let the season begin.
The first Jump Around of every fall is a highly anticipated moment in Madison, WI. While Wisconsin fans are eager to jump in unison after the third quarter Thursday night in Camp Randall, Luke Fickell and the Badgers are looking to take a different kind of leap.
After rattling off consistent double-digit win seasons and New Year’s Six appearances throughout the 2010s, Wisconsin has lost its luster lately. After consecutive 7-6 campaigns in 2022 and 2023,
the Badgers snapped their 22-season streak of winning records last fall with an end result of 5-7.
Wisconsin hopes brighter days are ahead, but Miami (OH) has other plans in the Week 1 opener. The always-consistent RedHawks are typically at their best in November, qualifying for two-straight MAC Championship Games due to late-season success. But this year, Miami hopes for a stronger launch out of the gate, aiming to improve upon its 1-18 record against Big Ten opponents since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted.
Miami RedHawks outlook
Miami is rising into one of the juggernauts of the MAC. The RedHawks won the league title in 2023 and qualified for the conference championship stage once again in 2024. And for the first time in 20 years, the program has 20 wins in a two-year span, driven by a 14-2 record against MAC competition since 2023.
The RedHawks typically improve as the season progresses, usually playing their best ball in November. Starting seasons is a different story. Miami has only won its first FBS matchup of the year once since 2008, doing so in the 2020 pandemic-abbreviated season. The last time the RedHawks defeated their first FBS non-conference opponent was 2002 when they edged North Carolina on the road. Miami isn’t used to seeing a 1-0 associated with its name, but Thursday night provides an opportunity to rewrite that narrative.
This year’s RedHawks team has incredible coaching staff retention, as Chuck Martin and both coordinators enter year 12 with the program, but the on-field personnel featured massive turnover. All 11 offensive starters and gone and only three defensive starters return, giving Miami a drastically different roster than the recent ones that punched tickets to the MAC Championship Game.
Fortunately, a former MAC champion will be the veteran leader of an offense that must replace six-year starter Brett Gabbert. Dequan Finn headlined successful Toledo offenses from 2021-23, leading the Rockets to the conference crown in 2022 and winning the Vern Smith Leadership Award (the MAC equivalent for MVP) in 2023. A former opponent of the RedHawks in a conference championship, Finn arrives directly from Baylor, where he started the early portion of the season before suffering a shoulder injury. The seventh-year senior provides Miami’s offense with dual-threat capabilities, throwing for 2,000+ and rushing for 500+ yards in three-straight seasons, while exhibiting a career touchdown to interception ratio of 66-to-25.
Besides quarterback, the most experienced position group on the offensive is tailback. Jordan Brunson returns as the likely No. 1 option, a bruiser fresh off a 299-yard campaign with a 5.6 average. Then there’s Kenny Tracy, a well-versed third down back. The sixth-year senior has 40 receptions as a RedHawk and returns after missing the entirety of 2024 due to injury.
The toughest tasks the RedHawks have on offense will involve replacing their receivers and offensive line. Miami featured one of the best receiver trios in the MAC in Cade McDonald, Reggie Virgil, and Javon Tracy, but a new crop of talent must step up in their absence. Transfers Deion Colzie (Notre Dame), Darion Williamson (Florida State), and Keith Reynolds (Washington) all look to bolster their production in their new home, and they can be comforted knowing Miami has accelerated the careers of several transfers receivers lately, like McDonald and Mac Hippenhammer.
As for the offensive line, the RedHawks don’t trot out much experience but they do offer plenty of size. Three 6’8” and four 6’6” linemen inhabit the roster. Wisconsin won’t be an easy matchup in the trenches, but it gives the RedHawks a legitimate test to find out if their new starting five is game-ready.
Defense is a similar story to offense, as the RedHawks lost a severe amount of All-MAC talent, from former MAC Defensive Player of the Year Matt Salopek to Brian Ugwu, Ty Wise, and Raion Strader. The group that boasts the most continuity and quality experience is the safety room, led by the tandem of Silas Walters and Eli Blakey. The two produced 95 and 89 tackles in 2024, respectively, while Walters deflected 12 passes and Blakey secured All-MAC honors.
The other starter back in the mix is defensive tackle Nasir Washington, but there are several seasoned reserves expected to take massive leaps this year. Among them are outside linebackers Corban Hondru and Oscar McWood, who both have thrived as coverage specialists. There’s also Adam Trick who accumulated 4.5 sacks last season and aims to become the team’s new No. 1 pass rusher. He’ll be joined in the defensive end room by a pair of transfers — Kam Wilson (Cincinnati) and Bai Jobe (Kansas) — who aim to keep the RedHawks’ front stout in 2025.
Miami’s recent success can primarily be attributed to the defense (and incredible kicking success, which should sustain under the incumbent Dom Dzioban). The RedHawks ranked 15th and 8th in scoring defense the last two years, while finishing below the FBS median offensively. While there are sizable leaps the offense can take from the previous campaign, maintaining defensive prowess is the key to sustaining success and the key to stunning Wisconsin at Camp Randall.
Wisconsin Badgers outlook
For the first time in two decades, Wisconsin was subject to a long offseason. It had been 23 years since the Badgers failed to qualify for a bowl game, but that was the end result of Luke Fickell’s second season when his team dropped five-consecutive contests to conclude 2024.
The mission in 2025 is clear: bring Wisconsin back to glory. The Badgers were a consistent force in the prior decade, winning 11+ games five times from 2010-17 as a New Year’s Six staple. The brand was strong — elite running backs, NFL-caliber offensive linemen, and gritty linebackers made Madison, WI one of the powers of the college football world. Now Fickell and Co. hope to revert to that era.
The first order of business is reconstructing the offense. Wisconsin ranked 109th in scoring in 2024 at 22.6 points per game, burdened by an inefficient passing offense which averaged 196.7 yards on a 57.0 completion rate. But the Badgers are out with the “Dairy Raid” offense and in with Jeff Grimes, who was hired from Kansas to inject new life into the unit. Grimes’ offense at Kansas checked in at 13th in the FBS in rushing offense, utilizing a scheme reliant on physicality and zone blocking schemes and physicality — more consistent with the offenses that made Wisconsin a winner in the 2010s.
Grimes’ scheme works best with established offensive line talent in place, and fortunately, the Badgers return three starters from a unit that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the Big Ten — center Jake Renfro, guard Joe Brunner, and tackle Riley Mahlman. While the sixth-year senior Renfro was limited in fall camp due to a knee injury, there is a chance he returns Thursday night, which would be a massive help to the unit.
Who is the unit paving pathways for? Wisconsin must decide on its feature back, but the Badgers have three candidates to step into that role. Darrion Dupree is the returning rushing leader after producing 317 yards on 79 attempts as a true freshman. Dilin Jones also arrived in Dupree’s recruiting class, and while he earned substantial playing time in three blowout wins for the Badgers, he maintained his redshirt by appearing in three contests. Rounding out the trio is Cade Yacamelli who averaged 8.3 yards per rush on 33 attempts, but shockingly disappeared from the offense — frozen out of a single carry during the Badgers’ five-game losing streak to end the year.
Elsewhere on offense, the Badgers start anew at quarterback with Maryland transfer Billy Edwards Jr. Edwards was one of the FBS’s most prolific passers through the first half of 2024, delivering 250+ yards and 2+ touchdowns on completion percentages of 63 and greater through his first five starts. While Wisconsin probably slices its aerial presence in the new scheme, Edwards’ presence could greatly amplify the passing attack’s efficiency for a program that’s ranked 100th or below in passing yards per game in four of the last five years. He’ll work with a receiving corps that returns two of the top three options from 2024 in Vinny Anthony (39 receptions, 672 yards, 4 TD) and Trech Kekahuna (25 receptions, 339 yards, 2 TD).
Perhaps the most perplexing part of Wisconsin’s 5-7 season was the uncharacteristic drop-off in run defense. Typically a strength of the program, the Badgers ranked 91st nationally in stopping the run by surrendering 165 yards per contest. Mike Tressel returns as defensive coordinator with the goal of resurrecting this facet, which could be the difference between Wisconsin extending its season beyond November or replicating its 2024 result.
The defensive line bulked up with a slew of 290+ pound transfers, including Corey Walker (Western Michigan), Parker Petersen (Tulane), Jay’viar Suggs (LSU), and FCS all-conference selection Charles Perkins (UT-Martin). Wisconsin ranked in the bottom 15 of the FBS with 1.42 sacks per game and these additions could be the perfect antidote, especially Walker who ranked first on Western Michigan in sacks last fall.
The remainder of Wisconsin’s defense features more continuity than the defensive line. The linebacking corps in the 3-4 scheme is spearheaded by Christian Alliegro who checked in at second on the team in both tackles (66) and tackles for loss (5). Longtime contributor Darryl Peterson also returns to a senior-heavy unit, hoping to bounce-back to his 2023 numbers which included 4.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
The Badgers’ secondary takes on similar form with a slew of returning starters despite the loss of leading tackler Hunter Wohler. Strong safety Preston Zachman contributed 58 tackles and two interceptions, while cornerback Nyzier Fourqurean added 51 tackles and three pass deflections. While the Badgers’ passing defense ranked top 15 in the FBS by allowing under 178 yards per game, the defensive backs are tasked with producing a substantially greater turnover output in 2025. Only three teams picked off fewer passes than Wisconsin one year ago.
Prediction
Wisconsin opens its season in primetime at Camp Randall for the second consecutive year. The 2024 opener was not smooth-sailing for the Badgers. Despite a 28-14 victory over Western Michigan, Wisconsin found itself trailing in the fourth quarter, but the Badgers staved off an upset thanks to an opportune punt — pouncing on a live ball which made incidental contact with a Western Michigan player. Given memories of last year and Miami’s track record of relentless defenses, the Badgers understand the work that must go in to emerge victorious.
This game should be a low-scoring, gritty, defensive-oriented slugfest. Both teams will likely spend the first half making an effort to establish the run, limiting the number of possessions in this contest. The primary matchup to watch involves Wisconsin’s large, refurbished defensive line against a Miami offensive line featuring five new starters — holding minimal collegiate starting experience.
Miami’s offense has been very susceptible to rough outings in non-conference play, notching just three points on Notre Dame and six on Northwestern in 2024. In fact, the RedHawks haven’t exceed 14 in a non-conference opener since 2018. Having Dequan Finn certainly helps, but there are so many moving parts that must gel together at once. Wisconsin’s experience on defense will prevail, allowing the Badgers to snap their 5-game losing skid.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Miami (OH) 10
