Teams across the league had to make Rule 5 Draft related 40-man roster decisions the other day. Now that has happened and we know who is available to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft. As a bad team, the Nats
are likely to pick a player because they can afford to roster that player for a full season and are in need of talent.
As always, there are interesting names available. Most of the time teams take pitchers because they are easier to hide on a roster, but I found three arms and two bats that excite me. If you want to look at all of the high profile names available, MLB Pipeline is a great resource for that.
There are a lot of intriguing names and we will get to some honorable mentions at the end. However, there are five names I want to talk about today. All of these guys are older prospects, most of whom have spent significant time in AAA. That means they are ready to go and relatively big league ready.
The first name we will talk about is the player I have heard about the most from Nationals fans. That player is Daniel Susac of the A’s. It makes sense why Nats fans are intrigued by him. Susac is a former first round pick and is a catcher. He also has a .280 career average and .785 OPS in the minors, so it is not like the performance is bad either.
On paper, Susac is a great fit. He posted an .832 OPS in AAA and is known as a solid defender. His arm is absolutely elite and he is great at controlling the running game. Susac posts top of the scale pop time numbers.
However, the devil is in the details. Don’t get me wrong, he would be a good selection, but there are reasons he was left unprotected. There are some serious holes in his offensive game. While the numbers look good, he chases over 35% of the time against AAA pitching. As we have seen with guys like Brady House, swing happy guys can get exposed in the MLB.
That .832 OPS is also deceiving. The Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter friendly and an .832 OPS is about average for that league. With mediocre exit velocities and chase problems, the offense is going to be a struggle at first. His framing and blocking are also behind his throwing defensively. While Susac would be a solid pick, it would be a risk for the Nats, who need stability behind the plate.
The next two players I will discuss fall into the same category, so I will talk about them together. Both Harrison Cohen and Zach McCambley are older, MLB ready bullpen arms. If the Nats want a ready made contributor, these are names Paul Toboni will look at.
Starting with Cohen, the 26 year old Yankees relief prospect is all about deception. None of his pitches stick out when looking at stuff models, but he is tough for hitters to pick up. He has a funky leg kick that messes with the hitter’s timing. You can see that with the very low average exit velocity against of 84.4 MPH.
Cohen also has a deep mix. He throws a cutter, a changeup, a 4-seamer and a slider. Very occasionally he will mix in a sinker as well. The heater is only around 93, but his stuff played in AAA. He posted a 1.57 ERA in 29 AAA outings last year. With that funky delivery, walks were an issue for Cohen, but he was so unhittable it did not matter. A cherry on top is that Cohen went to school and played at George Washington University.
Zach McCambley has a lot of similarities to Cohen. He is an older prospect and will turn 27 in May. However, he has big league stuff. McCambley has an elite feel to spin the ball. His cutter, slider and curveball all grade out very well. The cutter and slider are actually his two most used pitches.
McCambley put up monster strikeout numbers in AAA, with a K rate over 30%. While he does not generate soft contact to the level of Cohen, he has better control. McCambley walked less than 8% of hitters in AAA. The high strikeout and low walk numbers are very good indicators of success.
One drawback for McCambley besides his age is his fastball quality. His heater is only 94 MPH and does not have great shape. He does not throw it much, instead relying on his breaking stuff. That lack of a plus heater caps his ceiling, but he is a safe bet to be a quality relief arm, which the Nats need.
Back to the offensive side of the ball, T.J. Rumfield is a name to look at if the Nats want to select a bat. The Yankees prospect has the look of a prototypical slugger at 6’5 225 pounds. However, his contact skills and feel for hitting stand out more than his raw power.
The exit velocity data is actually Rumfield’s biggest flaw. However, if he can somehow find more juice, he could be a legitimate starting first baseman. Rumfield is a master at pulling the ball in the air, so he can tap into the power he has. That is a big reason why he has hit at least 15 homers in each of the last three Minor League seasons despite mediocre EV numbers.
Rumfield strikes out less than 20% of the time and walks nearly 12% of his AB’s. That gives him a high floor as a big league bat. He is already 25 years old, so I am not sure how much impact will come. With all the first baseman in free agency, would carrying Rumfield for a full season be worth it? It would be interesting to see how much playing time he would get if he were taken. Would he be a bench bat or would he start more regularly? Rumfield has some real talent, but there are also plenty of question marks.
The last guy I want to talk about comes from the Red Sox system, Paul Toboni’s old stomping grounds. That would be left handed pitcher Hayden Mullins. Despite being 25 years old, Mullins has not pitched above AA. However, he was dominant last season and has exciting stuff. He even struck out Giancarlo Stanton while the big slugger was on a rehab assignment.
There is a lot to like with this player. While he does not have premium velocity, Mullins’ fastball plays up due to its explosive life and deception. He also has two above average breaking balls with a slider and a cutter. Mullins just carved up High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.21 ERA with 123 strikeouts in 101.2 innings. The walks were an issue, with Mullins issuing 51 last season. However, batters only hit .177 against him.
Mullins is a starter right now, but he would likely work as a multi-inning reliever in the big leagues, at least to start. He is a riskier bet than the two relief arms, but he has a chance to be a quality starter in the future. Paul Toboni also knows a lot about this player, having played a big part in drafting and developing him. He would know if Mullins is worth a shot.
These are the five players I am looking at the hardest, but there are more to consider. Another Red Sox prospect to watch is Yordanny Monegro. He will miss all of next season due to Tommy John Surgery, but he is only 23. If he misses the whole season, the Nats only have to roster Monergro for 90 days in 2027. It is a very interesting upside bet because Monegro was dominant before getting hurt.
The Nats are very likely to take someone in the Rule 5 Draft. In the past few years, the Nats have had mixed results. Nasim Nunez looks like a good pickup, but Thad Ward and Evan Reifert did not work out. Hopefully Paul Toboni can find us a hidden gem on December 10th.
