Despite all the disappointment years ago when the Toronto faithful were so convinced the Raptors got it wrong at number 4, Scottie Barnes has done nothing but exceed expectations and lead the Toronto Raptors through an, at times, awkward rebuilding stage. Now, after a disappointing game seven exit, Toronto has swung for the fences in an effort to construct a team that will prove lightning can strike twice.
In order for that to happen, Scottie will have to continue improving again this year. First,
let’s dish out expectations of Scottie. Then, talk about how he will meet them.
The Ceiling
Regardless of who he’s sharing the floor with, Scottie will need to spend at least part of the season as “the guy”. At his best, Kawhi might play 65 games and at his worst that could be closer to 50. When it comes to the playoffs, matchups and homecourt advantage are everything. This past year proved that. Making sure that easily winnable games are in the bag and they’re able to compete with teams above 0.500 when Kawhi is resting will be imperative. Scottie will have to be the key to that. Expecting numbers closer to 20-8-8 would be an adequate ceiling.
The Floor
We would need a Pascal Siakam version of Scottie. Now that might sound like an insult to PSkills, but the year the Raptors won the chip, he was only averaging 17-7-3 shooting 55% from the field and 37% from three. Compare that to Scottie last year, 18-8-6 shooting career highs of 51% and 30% from three. Fairly similar, with Siakam having the edge in efficiency but Scottie in overall numbers. Scottie also boasts better defence, so this feels like an easily manageable statline for him, especially when sharing the floor with Kawhi who will pull defenders aware from Barnes.
Of course, that range doesn’t allow much wiggle room for a rough start or dips statistically. Make no mistake, the expectations are extremely high. He has a habit of doing the expected though.
Scottie the scorer
Two seasons ago, approximately 58% of the points Scottie scored were on two-point makes. The following year that ballooned to 67% and in the most recent season was 80%. This drastic increase shows how Scottie is developing his game. His size and physicality make him a dominant force in and around the paint, something we have undoubtedly enjoyed watching.
Plays like that one prove his ability to overpower opponents, something that he wasn’t this confident doing at the beginning of his career, but now make him someone defenses have to be extremely worried about.
Becoming a human highlight reel with poster dunks like this is one thing, but Scottie has also consistently been developing a midrange over the last couple seasons. Two years ago 7% of his scoring came from the midrange, this past season that figure is now 12%. Now, when defences collapse on him in an effort to block paths to the basket, he has another option.
His long range shooting is still a work in progress. The percentage of his points that come from beyond the three-point line is steadily decreasing from 25% two years ago to a mere 14%. In some ways, that’s not a bad thing as he’s taking more of the shots that he is more efficient at, but does hurt in the way of spacing.
His next stage as a scorer will hopefully be to continue to improve that shot. This past season was his career best at 30.4%, but if he could eventually improve that number closer to 33 or 35 that would be far more impactful, especially in minutes shared with Poeltl who has no long range either.
Having the gravity he does on the floor also opens up his teammates. Scottie has proven time and again to have a high basketball IQ and find the open man when he has drawn a second defender. This fits perfectly into the brand of basketball that Toronto has been playing the last two seasons under Darko.
Scottie the Facilitator
Last season, Scottie had a 2.26 assist to turnover ratio on almost 6 assists per game. Solid numbers for someone who isn’t even playing the point, but showing his skill and smart decision making as a facilitator nonetheless.
Some of them are plays almost no one would be able to see, like Ja’Kobe Walter sprinting the floor for a wide-open dunk:
He can do it through traffic and without looking:
And even behind his back:
With the face-paced ball-movement oriented system that is developing in Toronto, Scottie is the perfect prototype of what the Raptors need. Unselfish, smart basketball. If he can score, he does. If there’s a better shot available, he’ll pass. He makes things easier for everyone who shares the floor with him.
All of that before even mentioning his impact on the other end of the floor.
Scottie the defender
Last season, a lot of people (including me) felt like he was being snubbed from DPOY conversations. Not to say that Wemby didn’t deserve it, but to be left out of discussion entirely felt a little bit insulting. Then to be delegated to the Defensive Second Team was adding insult to injury.
He ranks 15th in the League for defensive win shares, but is one of only five on that list that played more than 60 games. He ranked ninth in the league for total steals, sixth for total blocks, and helped Toronto become the fifth-best defence in the League.
He leads the team in defensive rebounding, steals, and blocks per game. It’s unsurprising that you can find mixtapes just of his defense all over the internet proving his prowess at that end of the floor.
His timing, fearlessness, and effort make him able to guard virtually anyone. Including guys taller and longer than him:
Even if they beat him initially, his ability to recover for a block has also repeatedly been on display:
This was enough of a case for First-Team last year, but hopefully if he’s able to put together another year like this he will finally get that nod.
Despite additions and changes to the roster, Toronto will undeniably have to rely on Scottie to continue to do what he is capable of. His role as a defender, facilitator, and scorer means that he is a critical piece of this roster as they seek their second title. If he is “the guy” or if he is the “Pascal” to Kawhi, either way Toronto won’t have another title this year without him.
