The San Francisco 49ers head to the Big Easy to face off with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, but the 49ers’ offense will look significantly different with Mac Jones starting at quarterback. George Kittle is on injured reserve for at least four games, also. The test for the 49ers will be generating offense with Jones starting and missing the best tight end in the NFL. The Saints played the Arizona Cardinals down to the wire in Week 1 and will be looking for their first win under new head coach
Kellen Moore.
Here is what to look for on Sunday.
The Saints’ blitz rate
Brandon Staley is the defensive coordinator in New Orleans, and if Week 1 is any indication, he will push the 49ers’ offensive line with different pressure looks. The Saints blitzed 35.1% (tenth-highest in Week 1) and finished with a defensive EPA of -0.11 (11th-best in Week 1). Conversely, the 49ers had the highest offensive EPA when not blitzed in Week 1 at 0.51.
When gaining pressure, the Saints’ defense was tenth in EPA at -0.56. In Seattle, the 49ers’ offense, when pressured, finished with an EPA of -0.50, which was 20th in Week 1. Jones and the 49ers offense will have to prepare for pressure with hot reads and better protection.
49ers rushing attack
Arizona’s rushing attack is potent with Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Trey Benson. However, the styles in the rushing offense are completely different between Arizona and San Francisco. Primarily as a gap scheme rushing attack, Arizona utilized the gap scheme 44% against New Orleans. That number was good for the third-highest in Week 1. The Saints handled it well with a -0.17 EPA against gap scheme running.
Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers had a zero percent gap scheme usage last Sunday, while New Orleans faced outside zone 8% of the time only. The Cardinals had the lowest percentage of outside zone runs in Week 1. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers offense will need the rushing attack to stabilize the game on Sunday. The Saints were a bottom-three defense in Week 1 against outside zone.
Robert Saleh’s philosophy
At 66.7%, the 49ers were in a single high safety look at the ninth-highest in Seattle. The defense finished with the highest EPA from that look at -0.84. On the flip side, the Saints were most successful against single-high looks last Sunday. Arizona showed a single safety at the lowest percentage (40.4%), but the Saints had the 11th highest EPA against those looks at 0.17.
Saleh’s defense may face a top ten team out of 11 personnel in New Orleans. The seventh-highest 11 personnel usage belonged to the Saints at 72.6%. The 49ers faced 11 personnel only 49% of the time, but posted the fourth-highest EPA at -0.16 against Seattle. The Saints will attack on the ground with gap scheme (36.4%, fifth-highest), and the 49ers had the sixth-highest EPA against gap on Sunday at -0,45.
Pre-Snap Motion
Only one team utilized more pre-snap motion than San Francisco last Sunday. New Orleans didn’t face motion much against Arizona, but when they did, they struggled. Allowing an EPA of 0.13 when defending motion was closer to the bottom of the league at number 19. New Orleans allowed an explosive play 4.5% of the time on Sunday, which was the fifth-highest number.
Motion is a staple of Shanahan’s offense, so the chess match is on between Shanahan and Staley. After working on the same staff in 2024, this matchup will be very interesting. Staley’s philosophy of employing two-high safety looks with his defense continued on Sunday. The highest percentage of safety looks against Arizona was two-high at 37.8%. Staley tries to limit explosive passing plays with two high safeties, but running successfully against those looks will open up play action and passing opportunities.
