We don’t know for sure how much payroll space the Rockies will have available this offseason. We don’t know for sure how high ownership is willing to allow the budget to go, and and we don’t know how much their handful of arbitration-eligible players will end up making.
We can, however, use historic precedent and some back-of-the-napkin math to estimate a range.
I did part of that work back in August:
Kris Bryant is the only player the Rockies have slated to make more than $8.5 million next year. They
only have four guaranteed major-league deals for players who are beyond their arbitration years. Their total estimated payroll in 2027, other than arbitration-eligible players, is just $71 million. This is a club that has run a payroll between $119 and $170 million dollars every season this decade.
Using that recent track record of player payrolls and estimating somewhere between $15-$25 million dollars in arbitration salaries (both Hunter Goodman and Jake McCarthy are eligible), we could infer that the Rockies would have somewhere between $25 and $65 million dollars in payroll space available next season. However, it seems unlikely the Rockies will match their previous high in payroll this decade ($172 million in 2023), so it’s probably safe to shrink the top end of that range down a bit.
Given all of this, it’s pretty safe to assume that in 2027, the Rockies will have somewhere between $25 and $50 million of payroll space available for signing free agents this offseason.
For context, last offseason the Rockies spent just under $25 million dollars in 2026 payroll for free agents. That money was divided between three starting pitchers (Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano) and a super utility player (Willi Castro).
This offseason, the Rockies should have more money to play with. The question is, which parts of their roster should they be looking to spend it on?
The infield
If nothing changed right now, the Rockies would go into 2027 with an infield that looked something like this:
- C: Hunter Goodman
- 1B: TJ Rumfield
- 2B: One of Adael Amador or Connor Norby
- SS: One of Ezequial Tovar or Cole Carrigg
- 3B: One of Kyle Karros or Connor Norby
- Utility: Willi Castro
That’s a couple of positions (catcher and first base) with locked-in standouts, and two others (second and third base) with a couple of young players that have showed signs of big-league potential this season. That’s without even considering Roc Riggio (No. 13 PuRP), who may be close to big-league ready. You wouldn’t want to block playing time by bringing in a free agent at any of those spots, especially with Willi Castro’s versatility providing a baseline of competency anywhere should those young players falter.
Shortstop is a more interesting conversation.
As things stand, Tovar would be the second highest paid active player on the 2027 Rockies roster, but he is coming off of back-to-back disappointing seasons. He ended the final two months of 2026 hitting well, but that doesn’t guarantee future success. As the season rolled on, the Rockies started giving Carrigg starts at shortstop, and he handled the position competently.
Given that the Rockies have a young backup plan waiting in the wings at short, should Tovar’s struggles return, finding a replacement wouldn’t be at the top of my priority list for how the Rockies should use their payroll space.
The outfield
The Rockies outfield picture is large and murky as things stand today.
- Starter Locks: Jake McCarthy and Cole Carrigg
- Other Options: Mickey Moniak, Troy Johnston, Jordan Beck, Zac Veen (No. 6 PuRP), Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP), and Sterlin Thompson (No. 16 PuRP)
That collection of players contains a decent mixture of upside and floor, but many of these names come with a lot to prove at the major-league level. There are enough interesting names here that simply filling the lineup shouldn’t be a concern. The greater need is clarity on which of the younger players are going to be able to take the next step and become long-term solutions for the franchise.
Given the need for playing time among that large collection of players, there isn’t really obvious space for a free agent outfield starter. There are two potential smaller roles I could see spending to address:
- Currently, Carrigg looks to be the starter in center with McCarthy as the backup and Moniak as the emergency option. If Carrigg were to actually end up moving into the infield full time, there would be a need to find a defensive-minded backup option.
- After hot starts, both Moniak and Johnston put up decent overall numbers this season but failed to reach the level of production ideal for a full-time starter. Both, however, have had significant platoon splits. The Rockies could potentially look to free agency for a right-handed platoon bat if they don’t think an in-house option like Jordan Beck fits the bill.
Overall, spending to supplement this group through modest additions could make some sense. It isn’t, however, an urgent need given the depth of serviceable options.
The starting rotation
The Rockies starting rotation heading into the offseason is entirely up in the air. The rotation options available currently look something like this:
- Pitchers with starts in the Majors: Ryan Feltner, Mason Adams (No. 17 PuRP), Tanner Gordon, Gabriel Hughes (No. 7 PuRP), and Sean Sullivan (No. 21 PuRP)
- Pitchers with starts in Triple-A: Eiberson Castellano, Jack Mahoney (No. 15 PuRP), and Jake Brooks
- Pitchers that missed most of 2026: Chase Dollander, McCade Brown (No. 18 PuRP), and Mason Albright
There’s no way around it: While there are some potentially quality individual names here, this group as a whole does not constitute even a mediocre Major League starting rotation next season. The most likely scenario for next year’s rotation, if the Rockies aren’t able to improve over the offseason, is that it would be far worse than the 2026 version which was already bottom five in the league in fWAR.
The eventual return of Dollander sometime towards mid-season should provide some much-needed upside. The timeline for that return, however, shouldn’t be rushed, and the team should not assume his production will pick up exactly where it left off prior to his injury.
The rotation, as it stands, is in desperate need of at least two additional arms simply to ensure that they have enough innings to get through the season. This is clearly the greatest area of need on the roster that free agent signings could address.
The bullpen
While closer Jordan Romano is set to be a free agent this offseason, the remainder of the Rockies bullpen from the end of 2026 is under contract through at least next season.
- Right-Handed Relievers: Juan Mejia, Jimmy Herget, Jaden Hill, Nick Frasso, Zach Agnos, and Blas Castaño
- Left-Handed Relievers: Brennan Bernardino and Mark Manfredi
While many of these players have at times looked like solid big-league relievers, most have lacked consistency. Given the volatility of relief pitchers season-to-season, it’s difficult to project confidently how effective this group will be next season.
The bullpen as a whole has shown enough in short stints that spending significantly to overhaul it probably isn’t warranted. One or two more buy-low types (like Romano from last season) would probably be a wise use of payroll space. The combined performances of Bernardino and Manfredi in 2026 indicate that the right-handed side of the bullpen is the more pressing need if the Rockies do spend on relievers.
Conclusions
Having looked through the roster as currently constructed, the Rockies 2027 shopping list should look something like this:
- For Sure: Two starting pitchers
- Probably: A third starting pitcher and a righty reliever
- Maybe: A right-handed platoon outfielder, a defensive-minded center field backup, a second reliever, and/or a fourth starting pitcher
It feels strange to say but realistically the only area of the Major League roster that warrants spending a lot on is the starting rotation. Every other area either has an entrenched player or an intriguing young one that should be given a chance to prove themselves in the majors.
As the shopping list implies, however, some smaller additions around the margins wouldn’t be astray. Depth and buy-low options that could be acquired relatively cheaply should not be avoided.
The vast majority of money the Rockies spend on free agents this offseason, however, should go to starting pitchers. The exciting thing is that, if they have as much payroll space available as it looks like they will on paper, the tier of starting pitching names that they could realistically afford to pursue could be higher than Rockies fans have grown accustomed to in recent years.
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