There are two major themes heading into this afternoon’s game:
- The Cowboys represent ‘the best of times and the worst of times’
- The Cowboys are getting healthier while the Commanders are losing bodies at the WR position
“Best of times/worst of times”
It’s been talked about on the broadcast of every Dallas game in recent weeks and mentioned in dozens of articles about the team; Dallas has the best offense in the NFL by many metrics and the worst defense in the league by those same metrics. Without getting fancy, let’s just compare the relative rankings of Washington and Dallas offensively and defensively on two basic metrics: yards per game and points per game.
When it comes to offense,
the Dallas offense ranks 1st & 3rd in yards gained and points scored, respectively, while on defense, the Cowboys are ranked 32nd & 31st for yards and points given up to opponents.
Washington, on both offense and defense, is better at scoring points than gaining yards. With respect to points — the most important statistic of all – the commanders are ranked 7th on offense and 13th on defense. By contrast, they rank only 13th in yards gained on offense and a rather dismal-looking 25th in yards given up to opponents on defense. Offensively, this looks like good efficiency while defensively it sounds a little like ‘bend don’t break’, or just being good in the red zone (discussed below).
Dallas at home
When playing in their own stadium, which they’ve done twice in 2025 (Giants, Packers – both overtime games) the Dallas offense has produced more and the defense has given up more — which is not surprising with the two overtime periods, which both lasted the full 10 minutes.
Washington on the road
Washington has played 3 home games and 3 road games this season. Overall, Washington’s offense is earning fewer yards and scoring fewer points on the road than at home. The defense is giving up more yards and points on the road than at home. The Commanders are 2-1 at home and 1-2 on the road.
Looks like a shootout
The two games that Dallas has played at home this season — both ending in overtime — ended with scores of 40-40 and 40-37. It’s very much the nature of the Cowboys’ offensive and defensive performances, and Washington seems equipped to be able to score a lot of points and give up a lot of points. Fan Duel has the over/under on this game at 53.5. I’d probably take the over if the mark was 73.5.
A note on Red Zone scoring
Washington’s defense, which is ranked 25th in yards and 13th in points, must be doing something to impact those two inconsistent rankings.
They are.
The Commanders defense is ranked 10th in red zone scoring percentage (TDs only) at 55%. Only 4 defenses in the league are below 50%. The bad news is that the Washington defense has allowed 67% red zone scoring rate on the road, but these are pretty small sample sizes. Overall, the Commanders have allowed opposing offenses into the red zone 20 times; 12 times on the road and 8 times at home.
Significant roster changes this week
Cowboys
For Dallas, cornerback Trevon Diggs has been ruled out of this week’s game with a concussion. Diggs sustained an accident at home on Thursday night, and after he was evaluated by the team’s staff, the Cowboys declared Diggs unable to suit up on Sunday. On the other hand, CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Booker were full participants on Friday and are set to play Sunday after missing multiple weeks with their respective ankle injuries. KaVontae Turpin (foot) had been targeting this week for his return, and he was right. He was a full participant Friday and will play today. Tyler Smith (knee) was also upgraded to full participation and carries no injury designation heading into Sunday.
Commanders
For the Commanders, the wide receiver position has been hit hard by injury. After being inactive for 4 games, Noah Brown was moved to IR this week, meaning he’s out for at least another 4 weeks. Neither Terry McLaurin nor Deebo Samuel traveled to Dallas; both are ruled out this week. With none of Washington’s top 3 receivers healthy, recently signed receiver Robbie Chosen was elevated from the practice squad for today’s game. Chosen joins Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey, and rookie Jaylin Lane as the only wide receivers on Washington’s active roster. Tay Martin, who had been elevated from the practice squad three times this season (the maximum allowed), was released earlier in the week, presumably to give him the opportunity to sign with a team that could give him the opportunity for more game appearances this season.
RG Sam Cosmi, who had knee surgery following a knee injury against the Lions in the playoffs, will be active for the first time this season. It’s unclear whether he will start or if he will play full time today; he could be on a pitch-count, a rotation with another player, or he could simply be on the bench as a backup.
CB Jonathan Jones returns from IR to add CB depth.
The defensive line will look a little different, with Eddie Goldman returning after missing the Bears game with an illness. He will be joined by Sheldon Day, who was elevated from the practice squad for the game. DE Jalyn Holmes, who played well vs the Bears on Monday night, was released on Saturday, presumably in the expectation that he will be re-signed to the practice squad on Monday.
Turnovers
Heading into Monday night’s game against the Bears, turnovers looked like they could be a significant factor in the game since Chicago’s defense was (and still is) leading the league in takeaways.
This week, Dallas and Washington are more even in this category, though, thanks to Washington’s 3-turnover night vs the Bears, the Cowboys hold a slight statistical edge.
Both Washington and Dallas have negative turnover margin or the season. Washington is -3 and Dallas is -2. Dallas is +1 at home and the Commanders are +1 on the road.
Standings
Only 1.5 games separate 1st & 3rd place, and even the Giants are only 2 games out of the division lead at the moment.
Washington
With a win, the Commanders would open up a significant lead over the Cowboys (4-3 vs 2-4-1). Washington would either remain in 2nd place (if the Eagles win) or take over the division lead (if the Eagles lose).
Importantly, a win today would move the Commanders to 2-0 in the division — an important tie-breaker if they should end up with the same overall record as the Eagles or Giants at the end of the regular season.
The Commanders also need to add some wins to their record vs NFC opponents — another important tie breaker when it comes to playoff qualification and seeding — which currently stands at 1-3.
A loss, while not catastrophic, would be a tough pill so swallow as it would drop the Commanders below .500 and into 3rd place in the division. It would also add a loss to Washington’s division and conference records, potentially making it harder to win the division or qualify for the playoffs as a wild card entrant.
Dallas
A win for the Cowboys would be huge, moving them back to .500 on the season and into 2nd place in the NFC East.
With a loss, Cowboys fans would likely start talking about whether the team should be ‘selling’ at the trade deadline. At 2-4-1 overall, 1-2 in the division and 1-4-1 vs the NFC, Dallas would be in a deep hole when it comes to any path to the playoffs over the final 10 games of the season.
Of course, coaches, players and Jerry Jones wouldn’t be ready to quit, but the team would need to win 7 of its remaining games just to finish 9-7-1, a record unlikely to get them into the postseason.
It’s probably fair to say that the game is very important to both teams, but that the stakes are slightly higher for Dallas in terms of the negative impacts of a loss.
The point spread
Washington opened the week as 2.5-point road favorites, but the news on Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel (along with the health reports out of Dallas) has squeezed the line, per Fan Duel to -1.5 for the Commanders.
With Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and Noah Brown all missing from today’s lineup, the Commanders will need to find ways to threaten the Dallas defense, which is pretty bad and missing its top cornerback.
It should be an interesting game to watch!
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