I have been of the belief that the 2025 season was over, with respect to postseason possibilities, since July 22nd. After that loss to the Astros, we fell to 2 games below .500 and were 6ish games (I don’t have a screenshot of the standings on that day so I’m trying to ballpark math) back of the Padres for the final wild card spot. A few days after that loss, Josh Naylor was traded and then a week after that the Great Deadline Selloff occurred. To add insult to injury, #MarteGate dropped a couple
weeks after the Deadline and questions began to swirl about this organization bottoming out and who may be fired/traded once Game 162 finished.
All that seems like a long time ago now. Since August 1st when the Snakes hit their low point of the season record-wise, they have pushed to a 21-12 record with the bulk of their schedule being filled with teams fighting for their playoff lives or their seeding. This younger team, stripped of postseason expectations, has answered the bell and played hard every single night and put themselves in a spot where, with 3 weeks left in the season, they are within striking distance of a postseason slot.
So, for those of you joining ChefAZ on the playoff hype train, or just cautiously observing the train’s schedule and adding a ticket or two to your cart, I wanted to throw together an article on what these final few weeks look like if we’re going to make the dance in October.
The Competition
First, let’s look at the competition because no matter how well we play going down the stretch, we’re going to need some help. There are 2 wild card slots within reach of the Snakes at time of publishing. The Padres are 6.5 games ahead of us and sit in the second Wild Card slot, but, as Jim mentioned in a thread recently, we only need to pick up 3.5 games on them over the last couple weeks of the year in order to put us in a win-and-in scenario that final weekend series at Petco. The Padres have scuffled significantly over the last couple weeks, allowing us to be in the position we’re currently in, but I’m not going to expect that to necessarily continue. They have 7 games left against the Rockies and White Sox, but they also have 3 series against playoff contenders – home series against the Reds and Brewers (who may have the 1 seed locked up by the time they play, and a road series against the Mets. That series in New York from September 16-18 may be critical in determining our postseason chances. A sweep by either team puts us in a really good spot, as long as we do our job.
The Mets hold the final Wild Card slot and sit 4.5 games in front of us at time of publishing. The Mets went through a prolonged stretch of futility which, just like the Padres stretch, has allowed the Snakes to remain alive, but they may have come out of the worst of it, going 8-7 in their last 15 games including a home sweep of the Phillies. Over the final 3 weeks, their schedule includes 2 easier series – against the Nats and a season-ending series against the Marlins – and 4 series against playoff caliber opponents – 4 games on the road against the Phightins, vs. Texas, at Wrigley, and that aforementioned pivotal series at home against the Padres. The Phillies series begins tomorrow, September 8th, and will give us an immediate barometer for our playoff chances. A 3-1 or 4-0 series win for the Phillies will go a long way toward our playoff chances, again, as long as we do our job.
There are a few other teams in our general vicinity in the standings that we also need to be mindful of. Currently, there are 2 teams not in a playoff spot ahead of us in the standings: the Giants and Reds. At time of publishing, the Giants are 0.5 games in front. We have 6 games remaining against them, a series at home and on the road with our trip to the Bay starting tomorrow, coinciding the Mets series with Philly. The Diamondbacks currently are winning the season series against the Giants 4-3, so it will be critical that we go at least 3-3 in these games to ensure we retain the tiebreaker over them (more on that below), but obviously a winning record in those games would be greatly desired. Beyond the games with us, the Giants also have 7 games against the Dodgers and 3 games each against the Cardinals and Rockies. Normally, I’d say 7 games against the Dodgers is a huge swing in our favor, but the Guggenheims have been playing very poor ball lately, punctuated by that incredible defeat snatched from the jaws of victory on Saturday night. Which Dodgers team will the Giants face? The billion-dollar juggernaut? Or the paper tiger? I don’t like to root for the Dodgers under any circumstances, but they would help us out tremendously if they could at least take 4 or 5 of those 7 games. The Rockies series is their final one of the season, so it will be imperative for us to have the upper hand on the Giants going into that last weekend. Relying on the Rockies to get even one win is a fool’s errand. We need to take care of that business ahead of time.
A pair of NL Central teams round out the last of our postseason competition. The Reds and Cardinals are separated by a half game in the standings and sitting at 4 and 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot, respectively. Cincy plays in St. Louis the same time that the Mets are hosting San Diego. While I’m rooting for a sweep in the SD-NYM series, a 2-1 split in either direction of the CIN-STL series would be best for our chances. The Reds have a generally easier schedule to close out with 6 games against the A’s and Pirates and also getting the Brewers in the final weekend, by which time Milwaukee will probably have nothing to play for. The Reds’ series against the Padres starting tomorrow will be a big one, of course, but I don’t think I have a real rooting interest in that one yet. A sweep by the Padres likely kills the Reds postseason chances and puts them firmly in the spoiler role down the stretch, but a 2-1/1-2 split or Reds sweep keeps the Friars in striking range.
The Cardinals close out the season with their easiest series likely to be their final one of the season where they play in Wrigley against a Cubs team who has probably sewn up their playoff spot. A pair of series against the Brewers – likely while they are still trying to lock up the #1 seed – and road series against the Mariners and Giants on top of the home series against the Reds gives them one of the tougher, if not toughest, slate remaining.
The Good Guys
Currently, our beloved Snakes are sitting within 6.5 and 4.5 games of the final two Wild Card spots. The Diamondbacks have a tough road home, but that hasn’t stopped them yet. Nine total games against the Giants and Padres have already been covered above, but we also have 6 games against the Dodgers and Phillies at home and a single easier series where we head out to Minnesota this coming weekend. No games left against the Rockies hurts, but we control our destiny against the Giants and could very well be in the same position against the Padres when that series comes. The Phillies will likely have the NL East wrapped by the time we play them unless the Mets take 3 or 4 from them this week, so fingers crossed that one goes the way we want. As mentioned above, we have no idea which Dodgers team is going to be visiting us in the last week of the season, but regardless, we’ve shown that we can go toe-to-toe with them so I’m confident we can get 2 wins in that series if we need to.
Analytically, I don’t know if we have the juice to do what needs to be done, but we’ve been doing it already, so why not expect it to keep going? The biggest wild card for us coming down the stretch will be pitching. Our starters have turned in many competent starts, including T-4th most Quality Starts since August 1st. The bullpen has also been largely – what’s the word? – reliable. I didn’t know that was possible! As I pointed out in a Roundtable not too long ago, we could be due some regression on the pitching front as we’ve been the best staff in baseball at limiting the long ball since August 1st. If our luck in that area holds, though, and our pitching keeps making the opposition put the ball in play, our defense has proven more than capable of picking up their pitchers and making the 50/50 plays that win ballgames.
Tiebreakers
Definitely needed to include a section on tiebreakers in any playoff primer we write up considering how last year ended. As a refresher the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Of the teams mentioned above, we only lead the season series against the Giants. We are tied against the Mets, Cardinals, and Padres. We lost the season series to the Reds. The Reds are one of the longer odds teams to make the playoffs, but considering they own the tiebreaker over us, we should probably hope they are the first team to fall out of the race. The Giants and Padres season series are still TBD, of course. A minimum 3-3 finish against the Giants and 2-1 record against the Padres will secure those tiebreakers in our favor.
The second tiebreaker to determine Wild Card positioning falls on intradivision records. So that would be our record vs. NL West stacked against the records of the Mets vs. NL East and Cardinals vs. NL Central (since we tied them in the season series). As it currently stands, the D-backs have a very respectable 22-18 record against the West. Still a lot of work to do these last few weeks of the season on that front, but we are starting from a decent position. The Mets are 23-19 vs. the East, effectively tied with our record. Again, those games against the Phillies will be critical, but the Nats and Marlins will also play a role in that final number. The Cardinals record vs. the Central is the worst of this trio at 20-20. Series against the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds won’t make this an easy record to improve on.
In the event of ties in that area, or three-way ties, there are several other iterations of tiebreakers that will take place, but I don’t have the wherewithal to give each of those possibilities at the moment. Focusing on just the initial likely tiebreakers, the Diamondbacks are sitting in a good spot. The NL West games will be our most pivotal, and we’ll have to keep an eye on the Mets and Cardinals in their divisional games, as well.
Conclusion
FanGraphs had the Diamondbacks sitting with a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs on Sunday morning. That seems like truly long odds, but when you think that the Padres are effectively within 3.5 games of giving us the keys to holding our destiny in our own hands, it’s not as far-fetched a proposition as you would initially think. The Diamondbacks sit at 72 wins. Michael McDermott has put the target win total at around 87 wins, translating to needing to finish at 15-3 in order to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. 87 wins would be a great final total, but that final W tally needed ultimately relies on the teams in front of us. The Padres need to go 9-10 to reach 87 wins and the Mets need to go 11-8. Both of those are eminently possible, if not probable, but we only need one to stumble. Yes, we’re going to need some help to reach the postseason. We’re also going to have to play outstanding baseball. It’s not probable, but I’m just happy that our boys have played well enough that we’re even in a position to write this article up.
Go D-Backs! Good luck!
