Three weeks down, and so far our rooting interests have been pretty easy to figure out.
The Buffalo Bills should win. The rest of the AFC East should lose. Teams Buffalo has beaten should win, because strength of victory is our friend. Teams still waiting on the Bills’ schedule can win, too, because strength of schedule may eventually matter.
And, when none of that applies, we can always fall back on one of my favorite rules: Bad AFC teams should win enough games to stay away from the really good draft
picks, while bad NFC teams are welcome to lose as often as they would like and collect them instead.
But we’re getting close to the point where things change.
After this weekend, four games will be in the books. That’s still early, but it’s also roughly a quarter of the regular season. Beginning next week, we’re going to have to start paying a little more attention to the top of the AFC standings. Strength of schedule is nice. Making the road to the No. 1 seed a little less crowded is nicer.
For one more week, though, we’ll mostly stick with the rules that got us here.
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AFC East
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Root for: Buffalo Bills
This one needs no explanation. But the win will mean more than a much more pleasant Monday for Bills Mafia. It’s Buffalo’s first AFC East game of the season. New England is 1-2. Not going to lie – watching the Patriots return to reality has been fun. Let’s remind them who the real “Beast of the East” is. Go Bills!
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Root for: Chicago Bears
This one checks two boxes. The Jets are the Jets, which means we want them to lose. The Bears are also on Buffalo’s schedule later this season, which means a Chicago win helps the strength-of-schedule side of things. No overthinking required.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Root for: Minnesota Vikings
Miami loses? Good. A future Buffalo opponent wins? Also good.
The Vikings are 3-0, but they’re safely tucked away in the NFC, so their undefeated record isn’t standing between Buffalo and anything we want. Let Minnesota keep winning while Miami keeps doing the opposite.
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Rest of the AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Root for: Cleveland Browns
This is a weird place to start because the entire AFC North is 2-1. There isn’t a bottom-feeder available for us to adopt, and there isn’t a clear division leader for us to knock down.
So, we’ll take Cleveland. If the Browns eventually turn into a legitimate AFC threat, we’ll adjust. For now, putting another loss on Pittsburgh works just fine, and we don’t have a strength-of-schedule reason to prefer either one.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Root for: Washington Commanders
Here’s an easy one. Neither team is on Buffalo’s schedule, and Indianapolis is in the AFC. Give the AFC team another loss and let Washington take the win. It doesn’t do much for Buffalo, but not every game has to.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Root for: Houston Texans
Houston is 0-3, which isn’t exactly helping Buffalo’s strength of victory after the Bills beat the Texans in Week 1. A Texans win gives Buffalo’s strength of victory a boost and gets Houston away from the bottom of the standings and, eventually, the very top of the draft. That’s two reasons to temporarily become Texans fans.
So, come on, Houston. Do something useful.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Root for: Baltimore Ravens
Enjoy this one, because I suspect this answer might be different pretty soon.Baltimore is on Buffalo’s schedule and Tennessee isn’t, so under our early-season rules, we’re rooting for the Ravens and the strength-of-schedule bump.
But Baltimore is already 2-1 and very much part of the AFC conversation. Once we get through this week, teams hanging around the top of the conference aren’t going to keep getting our support just because Buffalo plays them eventually.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Root for: Cincinnati Bengals
There isn’t much direct Buffalo benefit available here. Both teams are 2-1, neither is on Buffalo’s schedule, and they’re both in the AFC.
So, this is mostly a pick-your-poison game. Jacksonville currently leads the AFC South, while Cincinnati is stuck in that ridiculous four-way 2-1 tie in the AFC North. We’ll take Cincinnati and put a loss on a division leader. We’re getting close enough to the point where that starts mattering.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Root for: Las Vegas Raiders
And here is where our rules collide headfirst.
Kansas City is 3-0. Las Vegas is 3-0. Both are sitting right beside Buffalo at the top of the AFC, and the Raiders are also on Buffalo’s schedule in Week 6 – a full six weeks before the Bills can handle their own business with the Chiefs.
So we’re taking Las Vegas and handing Kansas City its first loss.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Root for: Los Angeles Chargers
Please win a football game, Chargers.
Buffalo just beat Los Angeles, but that put the Chargers at 0-3. That’s not particularly helpful for the strength-of-victory column. A Chargers win gives that number a boost and, as a bonus, moves an AFC team away from the premium draft picks. Seattle can take the loss and move a little closer to them instead.
This is exactly what our weird little rule system was built for.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Root for: Denver Broncos
This one is mostly about strength of schedule.
Denver is a future Buffalo opponent, so every Broncos win makes the Bills’ schedule a little stronger. They’re 2-1, which is worth keeping an eye on in the AFC, but we’re not quite ready to start rooting against every AFC team with a winning record.
Plus, a Denver win coupled with our hopeful Kansas City loss keeps the AFC West crowded at the top. Let them spend all their time and energy fighting with each other. Maybe by the time they remember Buffalo is over here, they won’t have much fight left for us.
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NFC
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Root for: Arizona Cardinals
Neither team is on Buffalo’s schedule, so we’re heading to the draft-pick portion of the program. The Giants are 2-1. Arizona is 1-2. Let the Cardinals get back toward the middle while the Giants take the loss. We’re not trying to hand premium draft capital to NFC teams that don’t need our help getting better.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Root for: Los Angeles Rams
Meet next week’s opponent.
Buffalo heads to Los Angeles in Week 5, so we’d like the Rams to look a little better before the Bills get there. A Rams win improves Buffalo’s strength of schedule now and could become a strength-of-victory boost later if Buffalo handles its own business.
Besides, at 1-2, Los Angeles could use the help.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Root for: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are on Buffalo’s schedule. The Buccaneers aren’t. That’s enough for now. Green Bay doesn’t show up until December but wins count the same whether we collect them for the strength-of-schedule pile before or after we meet.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Root for: Detroit Lions
Buffalo already beat Detroit, so we know the drill. Every Lions win from here makes that Week 2 victory look a little better. Carolina doesn’t appear on Buffalo’s schedule and can happily absorb the loss. Strength of victory wins this one.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Root for: Whoever you want
We’ve found it. The game where I can’t come up with a particularly convincing reason to care. Neither team is on Buffalo’s schedule. Both are in the NFC. Both are 1-2.
If we’re going strictly by the draft-capital rule, somebody has to win, so flip a coin and hope the other one gets closer to stealing a good draft pick from an AFC team. Or use this game to make dinner. That’s probably the better option.
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We’re still early enough that most of this is tiebreaker housekeeping. Buffalo’s wins over Houston, Detroit, and Los Angeles get more valuable when those teams win, and future opponents piling up victories can help the Bills down the road.
But the grace period is almost over.
Once Week 4 is finished, we’ll have enough of a season to start looking harder at the AFC standings. If Kansas City, Baltimore, Las Vegas, or somebody else starts separating from the pack, we’re not going to keep cheering for them just because they happen to appear somewhere on Buffalo’s schedule.
At some point, the simplest rooting interest becomes the most important one: Everybody between Buffalo and the No. 1 seed needs to lose.
We’re just about there. Go Bills!
