This seems like one of those times when a picture is worth 1,000 opening words:
That’s Billy Edwards Jr in the upper right hand corner, with the best QB performance of the week. It’s hands-down Edwards’ best game of his college career. Coming after somehow
dirting a wide-open touchdown against Syracuse, Edwards was precise in his reads, timing, and ball location. It’s one of the best offensive performances we’ve seen in a UNC uniform this century, right up there with anything Drake, Sam, Omarion, Josh, Javonte, or the other luminary offensive Tar Heels have produced. It was a performance for the ages.
Bobby Petrino owned the Miami defense
Billy and his offense executed it. Petrino designed it. Here’s a Hurricanes film analyst breaking down two plays the epitomized the night for UNC and the value of Petrino as an offensive coordinator:
The only reason UNC lost that game was the UNC defense allowed Miami to score on six of its seven possessions. Miami punted five times each against Wake Forest and Florida State. Miami punted just once against UNC. Two punts probably wins that game. Miami has a ferocious offense, but it’s not been unstoppable, just relentless.
How the Metrics see the Tar Heels: 46th nationally
The three composites combined now rate UNC the 46th best team in the country, moving up six spots after the loss to Miami. Eight games into the season, that’s dramatic improvement over last season. This team now ranks in the same tier as the two Drake Maye seasons, which feels about right — moments where the play makes you feel good with some losses that feel like wasted opportunities.
Observations: The average rating for the offense has jumped over 70 spots from the end of last season, which is a remarkable turn-around. The defense has moved up almost 25 spots from the end of last season.
Overall: 46th
FEI: 46 SP+: 53 FPI: 33
Offense: 37th
FEI: 31 SP+: 55 FPI: 27
Defense: 54th
FEI: 57 SP+: 51 FPI: 53
ACC Rank: 8th
FEI: 7th SP+: 11th FPI: 5th
Where UNC’s offense and defense rank in the ACC according to SP+
SP+ wasn’t as impressed by the offense or disturbed by the defense against Miami, continuing to rate the offense in the bottom half of the conference and the defense in the top half.
How past and future opponents fared last weekend
Note: Blend is the team’s current ranking average in the three major CFB metrics (SP+, FEI, and FPI) out of 138 teams.
TCU (4-4). Blend 41 (+1): UNC won
TCU trailed Kansas 13-0 at the half but pulled out a 22-16 win over the Jawhawks for their second P4 win of the season. Sonny Dykes might not last the season.
ETSU (6-3). Blend N/A: UNC won.
The Bucs lost to Tennessee Tech 24-17, a result that likely dooms their distant FCS playoff hopes.
Clemson (5-3). Blend 48 (+5): UNC lost.
Clemson‘s offense — for only the second time this season — looked good against an FBS opponent, downing FSU 36-24. The Seminoles defense showed a lot of quit in that game, and FSU finally pulled the plug on Mike Norvell afterwards.
Notre Dame (6-1). Blend 21 (+1): UNC lost.
Notre Dame got caught looking ahead to Miami and trailed Navy at the half 14-13. The Irish pulled away 35-14 in the second.
Pittsburgh: (6-3). Blend 40 (+1): UNC won.
Pitt beat Georgia Tech 34-11 to snap a three-game losing streak. Pitt’s QB Holden Geriner recorded a QBR of 23.8 against the Yellow Jackets, which might end up being the worst QBR rating to win a game in the ACC this season. Brent Key’s in trouble.
Duke (6-2). Blend 36 (+11): UNC won.
Duke thumped Boston College 47-2. Diaz’s name is being circulated as a candidate for the job at Florida State.
Syracuse (4-4). Blend 74 (+2): UNC lost.
The Orange destroyed SMU’s playoff hopes, downing the Mustangs 30-27. Angeli continued to look like the QB everyone expected him to be at the beginning of the year, not the disaster against Cal and Pitt that forced his benching.
Miami (8-0). Blend 4 (-): UNC lost.
Having to beat a team as good as Miami plus the officials usually doesn’t work out.
Connecticut (4-4). Blend 84 (-): Lost to Air Force 35-26. This one’s a must-win for UNC’s bowl hopes this season and Belichick’s potential contract extension. Better be a W.
Louisville (5-3). Blend 22 (+3): Stomped Stanford 52-24 while being the team they’ve been all season: incredibly explosive on offense, even more so than Miami, and leaky as heck on defense. Still an L.
Virginia (4-5). Blend 61 (-7): Wake Forest boat-raced the ‘Hoos 51-7. The Cavaliers struck gold in the portal last season, but this round they struck out. The season feels like it’s beginning to circle the drain for head coach Tony Elliott and his Cavaliers. The bottom feels like it’s about to give out for this team, so the rating moves to a W.
NC State (4-4). Blend 68 (+6): The Wolfpack fired Dave Doeren, and the team rallied to beat Cal convincingly 31-10. How long will this team continue to rally around interim coach Todd Goebbel? Still a toss up.
At the moment, that projects to six wins, five losses, and one toss-up. The season ends somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5, with 6-6 remaining the most likely result. The 2027 recruiting class currently ranks 10th in the ACC and 42nd nationally, while the 2026 class — heralded as the “foundation” for the program moving forward — appears to be hemorrhaging some of its standouts. The next round of portal season will be crucial to UNC’s prospects in 2027, and the program could use a winning streak down the stretch to build momentum towards it.
