If the Phillies are going to have a chance against the Braves, there will have to have been several things that go their way. We can talk all day about the offense and their need to hit and that is a great place to start. In baseball, it’s pretty simple: if a team doesn’t score runs, they aren’t going to win. Going up against Chris Sale to begin the series is a tall task, so just as important as scoring runs against him will be making sure that runs are also kept off the board. Keeping the Braves offense at bay
will be up to a pitching staff that will rely on the starter to get them as close as they can to Jhoan Duran without giving up too much.
If it comes down to it, using the bullpen in big spots will create pressure points in a game. We know that Alex McFarlane and Duran are going to be the arms they want at the end of the game, but in the middle innings, there could be moments where a different reliever is called upon. Should those hitters be right handed, Jonathan Bowlan could be the one the team goes to.
Why he’s an X-factor: The Braves struggle with velocity
This year, against fastballs that are 96 miles per hour or higher, the Braves have not really done that well. As a team, they have a .283 wOBA against those pitches. Right handed hitters in particular have struggled, posting a .267 wOBA against those fastballs. If one wanted to narrow it further, look at where Bowlan has lived with his fastball during the season.
We can get even more granular and focus on how the Braves do against fastballs thrown at that velocity in those spots. If we call them zones 1-6 as defined by the gameday zones one can find in a Baseball Savant search, the Braves have a .248 wOBA against those pitches.
That’s somewhere that a pitcher like Bowlan can attack. His ability to pound the zone with a fastball that skirts with triple digits could be something that helps thwart right handed power bats like Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley. Of course, there are two issues that could always go backwards for the Phillies. The first being Bowlan’s injury where he may not be able to reach that kind of velocity that he has used this season. The second, more daunting, is that he has not been that good in the appearances he has had lately. Prior to his getting hurt, the last five times Bowlan toed the rubber, he allowed a run in each one, including giving up three home runs. That doesn’t inspire confidence.
The bullpen needs to be near perfect for the Phillies to have a shot. They are going to be called upon a few times during this series and they need to answer the bell each time. Having a healthy and effective Jonathan Bowlan would go a long way in doing so.
