This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns (5-2) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2). Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
It’s Been 23 Years
If I could put the meme from the Titanic here, I would, with respect to it having been 23 years (which is a 22-game losing streak) since the Cleveland Browns have won a road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular season. We’ll always have that playoff victory over them,
but we’re trying to keep focused on the unfathomable statistic of losing 22 in a row somewhere.
Of course, the reason for that has largely been that the Browns have been a bad football team, while Pittsburgh has generally been good. But, it’s not like Cleveland hasn’t been able to beat Pittsburgh during that stretch at all. In fact, at home since 2003, the Browns are 10-13-1, including winning 7 of their last 8 games there. On the road, they are 1-22, with 22 straight losses.
That 2003 match-up was one featuring Tim Couch as the Browns’ starting quarterback, as he went 20-of-25 for 208 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, and 1 rushing TD in a 33-13 victory. Cleveland still have the classic quartet of Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan, Andre’ Davis, and Dennis Northcutt as their receivers, with Steve Heiden as their primary tight end. William Green ran 33 times for 115 yards. Pittsburgh was led by Tommy Maddox at quarterback, with Amos Zereoue and Jerome Bettis running and Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, and Antwaan Randle El as their receivers. Phil Dawson was putting kicks through the uprights for the Browns. I was 14 years old back then, just starting high school. I’m 37 now, having been through college, had a full-time job for awhile, and started a family. It’s time we turned the corner for the Browns, isn’t it?
Home-away records sometimes seem less valuable these days. I could go into context and say that Cleveland’s 2-2 road record this year was the team just not being prepared in Week 1, and also because of sloppy rain conditions against the Jets, and not because ‘they weren’t at home.’ But when you just look at the records straight up, the Browns are 3-0 at home. Also 3-0 at home this year? The Pittsburgh Steelers, with wins over the Falcons, Bengals, and Colts. They, like Cleveland, have had a relatively soft schedule this year, but it’s let them build some confidence and work out some things too. This game won’t be easy, but I’m excited for it.
Those Darn Slow Starts
Last week, I harped on the Browns needing to get their offense rocking, especially with KC Concepcion, and also needed the defense to stop allowing opening-drive scores. Cleveland accomplished half of that with the offense taking off, but the defense found themselves in a 14-0 hole before getting things back on track. Thinking back to the first Steelers game, Pittsburgh began the game with a 17-play, 73-yard drive that took up 9:48 of game clock. Then, until the fourth quarter, their drives were: interception, punt, missed field goal, field goal, punt, punt, and punt.
It’s always been a known factor in the NFL that some teams can have greater success on their first drive with well-scripted sequences. But it’s a bit mind-blowing that this defense can play so well the rest of the game — which I’ve attributed to Mike Rutenburg’s ability to make adjustments — but they can’t get that stop, even out of dumb luck, on the first drive.
I know Rutenburg would say that it doesn’t matter if that touchdown drive comes on the opening drive, or the fifth drive, they want to stop it. But setting the tone early will be a factor as some of these games get more serious. The last time these teams played, Cleveland erupted for 21 straight points in the second quarter. That isn’t going to happen every week (even though they erupted for 17 points in a row just last week, after being in a hole…)
Here are some other notes:
- The running game was encouraging last week. I like some of the little things we’re seeing improve with team blocking, and I also like the adjustment to go under center more. I think Cleveland, in their efforts to make Deshaun Watson comfortable, have often gone from Shotgun, which can hurt the running game at times. Watson has been much more unphased this year, and I think we’re seeing how being under center can add some things to the ground game, quick passing game, and even springing someone like KC Concepcion open off of playaction.
- Speaking of Concepcion, the usage of him last week was picture perfect. Keep doing it — he is the one guy who can really propel this offense to the next level, and help open things up for other guys too. The number of crossing routes that Cleveland has started taking advantage of is perfect too.
- Jaylen Warren is the guy who the Browns need to stop. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season, and with the return of Rico Dowdle last week, the duo has been very effective on the ground.
- I still fear Darnell Washington to a degree. The big tight end had a touchdown catch against the Browns, and has a touchdown catch in each of the past two games. I’d be tempted to put Emmanuel McNeil-Warren on him at times to see what happens.
- The big X-Factor this week that could throw a wrench in Cleveland’s chances is the fact that Tytus Howard might be out with a concussion. That would put Dawand Jones in as the starting right tackle. We all remember back in 2023, when Jones — in limited action — ‘shut down’ T.J. Watt, which got everyone excited about Jones’ future. It’s been a bit rough since then, and with injuries and lesser playing time, Jones hasn’t looked very sharp during fill-in duty.
- And then what happens if Jones goes down with an injury? I’m assuming that KT Leveston will be a gameday elevation from the practice squad, but remember, he was outright cut after being a contender for the starting right guard job in camp. Cleveland drafted Austin Barber to be a reserve offensive tackle, but he’s flourished at right guard. I suppose the they could shift Barber to right tackle, Elgton Jenkins to right guard, and then put Luke Wypler at center. On paper, that works for me. However, with the continuity these guys have built up, would they want to switch three linemen as opposed to just one? Fingers crossed that Jones not only stays healthy, but plays has a solid outing.
- According to FanDuel, the Browns are 3.5 point underdogs against the Steelers. The over/under is 39.5.
Quick Hitters
Offensive coordinator Travis Switzer was asked about if the running game so a breakthrough this past week, but he just appreciated the collective effort and improvements on first and second down:
“Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of the things, we have been seeing improvement over the last couple weeks, so it was great to see the production that we had on Sunday. As far as breakthrough, I don’t know. I don’t know that any of our guys really look at it that way. I think that the things that we’ve been emphasizing to improve, we’ve been. We were a lot better on first and second down, which allowed us to get more runs called. You know, the more you’re on schedule, the more you’ll be able to run the ball. So, as far as breakthrough, I don’t know. I mean, we were certainly really happy to see the production that we did, and we’ll continue to try to improve.”
Defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg wouldn’t really give an answer to the slow start of the defense each week, other than they treat every drive the same as far as diagnosing what went wrong behind closed doors:
In everything we do, when it is to our collective standard, we are constantly trying to get it better. So, whether it’s the first drive, something else, something we’re doing really well, it’s a constant under construction through the week of why, tell the truth, try and figure it out together and fight our a—- off really to fix it. And it’s a really cool process, collectively, as a staff and players.”
Special teams coordinator Bryon Storer was asked about a couple strategic elements, and I’m going to post two quotes from him this week, because I appreciate the insight. The first was what happened on the 12-men penalty on the punt that led to a Titans first down, and then later, he talked about the two touchbacks by Andre Szmyt to start the game:
“Absolutely. [Monken] got every right to be angry about that situation, and that ultimately falls on my shoulders, 100%. So, I take full responsibility for the 12 men on the field. I’ve got to catch that. So, the situation was, it was fourth-and-one. And in a fourth-and-one situation, we don’t usually go with our normal punt return team. It’s our safe team, as they like to say it, and it’s majority of defensive players, all defensive players on the field. So, in that situation, you’re thinking about fake the whole time. And going into the game, we are very ‘fake’ aware that there could potentially be a fake run against us. So, in all honesty, we had the safe team out there, and one of our punt return players stayed on the field. We were so fake aware in that moment, we failed to notice that there was 12 men on the field. And so, it just cannot happen. It’s a big-time learning lesson for me as a coach. And then we addressed it with the guys, we instituted a few different fail-safes to make sure that never happens again, because that absolutely cannot happen again moving forward.”
…
“So, we’re going to kick it to him. And so, but I did tell Dre (Andre Szmyt) he could be a little bit more aggressive, because we’d rather have it more towards the goal line versus being caught on the five-to-10-yard line and have him have a full head of steam with basically one cut. So, I told him, ‘hey, you can be more aggressive toward the goal line.’ After the first one, I said, hey, Dre, no big deal. You know, we’ll get him the next one. And then the second time I was a little bit more disappointed. Said, Dre, we can’t do that twice now. So, our whole philosophy going into that game was to cover kicks, and so we would rather not kick touchbacks in those situations.”
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Predictions
Chris Pokorny: “Cleveland has lived and died with close games for much of the season, so why should this one be any different? The Browns’ defense was effective against Rodgers and company for much of that game, even though he came one yard away from the 300-yard mark. The Browns need to play a clean game, but I think the positive momentum continues, as this unit has shown that they are unphased by the big moments.” Browns 23, Steelers 20
Jared Mueller: “There are only two ways I see this game going, and I’m going to pick the one I don’t want to see.
The Browns are either going to blow the Steelers out by 10 or more points, or lose a close one to a veteran-laden team on the road. It feels like a game Cleveland can control, if they can get out of the blocks early and avoid penalties, with Pittsburgh coming off last week’s game in Paris. A couple of mistakes, and Aaron Rodgers taking advantage of the Browns aggressive defense could change the game for the Steelers.
Let’s hope I’m wrong.” Steelers 20, Browns 18
Thomas Moore: “It has been 23 years of blowouts, close calls, and general nonsense whenever the Browns travel to Pittsburgh. HC Todd Monken is not concerned about any of that and the message should filter down to the players.
There is no logic applied here – which makes sense since a 23-year losing streak is completely illogical – so the Browns are going to continue to embrace their “do whatever you have to do and pull it out at the end” style of play.” Browns 17, Steelers 10
Barry Shuck: “Just not seeing it. The Browns are 0-10 in the last decade in Pittsburgh. But they did win that playoff tilt in 2020. I believe the Browns will split with everyone in their division, just not on the road. Steelers have a very good run defense, which means Deshaun will need to fling it all day. Stats show when QBs throw for the average of 28 times a game, there is a chance of winning. But those contests when the QB has to air it out 40-50 times, it means the run game is crappy, and a lose is inevitable.” Steelers 27, Browns 13
Ezweav: “Literally everything points to another disappointing day over there at Ketchup Field. The history in particular is just so daunting, our worst game every year is over there, and we’ve all been through this time and time again.
But these players and coaches aren’t the same guys. They have not bought in AT ALL to the sad-sack ‘woah is me’ attitude so many previous teams (and a lot of current fans) bring into this contest. To them, this is a team they kinda pushed around a month ago, winning narrowly a game they really should have won comfortably. There’s nothing actually all that special about the Steelers at this point. They’re old, we’re not.
So against all better judgement (specious though that may be in my case) we’re going all in.” Browns 25, Steelers 13
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
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