Training camp for the New York Giants is roughly three weeks away. Players report on Tuesday, July 28, with the first practice at The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia set for Wednesday, July 29.
Each day between now and the beginning of training camp, Big Blue View will feature some form of training camp preview content. That will include posts on positional analysis, storylines, roster battles, and more. We start today with a look at fair expectations for the 2026 season.
The odds
FanDuel lists the 2026
over/under for the Giants at 7.5 wins in John Harbaugh’s first season as head coach. The over is +100, with the under -120.
Giants fans are optimistic. In a poll here at Big Blue View, 63% of voters said the team would win seven to nine games. Another 19% said the team would win 10 or more games. That is a lot of faith in a team that won just seven games total the past two seasons.
BBV’s Chris Pflum came up with a 10-7 prediction in the immediate aftermath of the schedule release.
My prediction, admittedly the most optimistic prediction I could make, was 9-8.
Harbaugh raises the floor
In 18 seasons as head coach of the Baltimore Ravens, Harbaugh’s teams reached the playoffs 12 times. There were only three losing seasons. Only one of those seasons, a 5-11 2015 season, produced fewer than eight wins. There was a Super Bowl title in 2012.
Granted, Harbaugh stepped into a situation in 2008 with an established general manager in Ozzie Newsome and a team thought to be among the league’s best-run organizations. The Ravens, though, experienced more consistent success after hiring Harbaugh than they had before.
The Giants have gone 7-27 (.206 winning percentage) the past two seasons and 13-38 (.255) the past three seasons. In the last nine seasons, the Giants have had eight losing years. In six of those nine seasons, the Giants have won fewer than six games.
It is hard to imagine a team coached by Harbaugh regularly being that abysmal.
“The plan is to win every game,” Harbaugh said at his introductory press conference. “You go into every game planning to win that game. That’s our expectation. That’s what we will be expecting to do. But we’ve got to earn the right to expect that by how we go to work and prepare and what kind of a team that we make ourselves into.”
Don’t expect the 2025 Patriots
The New England Patriots went 4-13 in 2023, Bill Belichick’s final season. They again went 4-13 in 2024, Jerod Mayo’s only season as head coach.
In 2025, New England hired Mike Vrabel, a veteran head coach with a winning pedigree. They featured a highly drafted second-year quarterback. They re-made their roster and restored a winning culture. The Patriots went a stunning 14-3 and represented the AFC in the Super Bowl.
There are Giants-Patriots parallels, obviously. Multiple horrible seasons in a row. The hiring of Harbaugh, a no-nonsense veteran head coach with a winning pedigree like Vrabel. Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart. Like the Patriots, the Giants this offseason re-made their roster.
Don’t, though, expect the Giants to reprise the Patriots’ success.
Yes, the Chicago Bears also had a quick, one-year turnaround. They went from 5-12 in 2024 to 11-6 and the playoffs in 2025.
Still, those types of overnight turnarounds are the exception rather than the rule. Sometimes, when they do happen, like the Washington Commanders going from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 and the playoffs in 2024, they are a mirage. Washington crashed back to 5-12 last season.
Harbaugh got fired after an 8-9 2025 season in Baltimore. An 8-9 2026 season with the Giants would be viewed far differently. So might a 7-10 year.
The Giants now have an accomplished leader in Harbaugh. Add Dawn Aponte, and there are veteran sounding boards that GM Joe Schoen has not had before. The roster is deeper, though the Giants did not do anything splashy in free agency. Things are trending up for the Giants, but they are not yet close to what they hope to become. There remain holes to fill and young players to develop before they can get there.
Maybe the Giants shock the NFL world and have a Patriot-esque 2026. Maybe they go worst to first in the NFC East, though obviously good Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys teams and a potentially resurgent Washington team might have something to say about that.
A .500-ish season in which quarterback Jaxson Dart takes a step forward, and young players like Abdul Carter, Arvell Reese, Sisi Mauigoa, Malachi Fields, Cam Skattebo, and Colton Hood look like part of a brighter future could also be considered a positive year for the Giants.
If it were me, I would set my expectations there. If the Giants give us more than that, then it becomes even more special.
