The New York Giants lost 34-27 to the Detroit Lions in an overtime thriller on Sunday.
We could talk about how the Giants never trailed in regulation on the road against a team that was a 13.5-point favorites. We could talk about how a rag-tag offense pulled out all the stops to keep pace with one of the best in the NFL — including an amazing touchdown pass from the Giants’ return specialist to their back-up quarterback.
We could talk about the work Mike Kafka has done to put the Giants in position
to win despite being without his starting quarterback, wide receiver, and running back.
Instead, we have to talk about Kafka’s decision to go for the touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the Detroit 6-yard line with 2:59 remaining in the game. The Giants were up 27-24, and a field goal would have forced the Lions to score a touchdown to win, rather than kick a field goal to tie.
It was a decision that immediately proved controversial, and became more so when the Lions’ kicker just squeaked in a career-long 59-yard kick to tie the game.
Former linebacker and current color commentator Jonathan Vilma wasn’t a fan of Kafka’s decision. He argues in favor of the conventional tactic to take the points and force the Lions to score a touchdown to win, as opposed to kick a field goal to tie.
This was also one of those rare cases in which conventional wisdom and analytics aligned:
The argument in favor of the decision is the Giants’ aggressive play all game long. Kafka has preached aggressiveness since taking over as the Giants’ interim head coach. The Giants’ offense played an excellent game, with timely play calls, great physicality, and sky-high energy. The Giants played great despite missing multiple starters and racked up 517 yards of offense against a tough Lions’ defense. They scored on big plays throughout the game, and they seemingly had the Lions on their heels. Scoring on fourth down would have given the Giants a 10-point lead with less than three minutes to play in the game.
And considering how leaky the Giants’ defense has proven to be in the fourth quarter, there’s no guarantee that they would have prevented the Lions from scoring a touchdown.
That was precisely the argument Big Blue View’s Ed Valentine made in an exchange with long-time NFL writer Gary Myers:
So we put it to you? Did the Giants make the right decision going for it on fourth down, or should Kafka have taken the points?
