The Giants have played 81 games, marking the official halfway point of their 2026 schedule. Before I highlight some of the truly lowlights of this what’s-shaping-up-to-be historically awful season, let’s first contextualize their 33-48 record and then do that fun thing where we double all the current stats to “project” end of season results.
To start, this is a top 10 worst first half of a season in the history of the Giants. Not just the San Francisco era, but New York, too.
That’s very impressive.
Buster Posey is on his way to the Hall of Fame and is one of the most famous Giants in living memory, and yet he will go down as having grounded the franchise into one of the most destructive shoals ever encountered. So, let’s give Buster credit for doing something that most would’ve assumed only a total amateur with zero experience could’ve done. That he’s done it a whole year into the job, too, shouldn’t be dismissed. Whatever he learned last year led him to the decisions that have begat a total disaster this year.
That the Giants are still off the pace of the franchise’s sole 100-loss team doesn’t appear to be a fluke of luck (double their wins and they might go 66-96!). This is (probably) where senior advisor Bobby Evans comes in. He was running the team during their 98-loss season, so we can be sure he’s providing the input that keeps the team clear of triple digit losses. Hold on to him, Buster!
But it’s not all mockingly great news. The Giants do, as anticipated, have one of their best lineups in the 21st century.
Kinda.
Sorta.
The team’s 102 wRC+ through the first half of the season (.255/.309/.418) is ranked 8th just looking at Giants offenses since 2000. This is a fun list, too:
I don’t know what it means that the 8th worst record aligns with the 8th-best offense of the century, so I have to assume it’s just a coincidence. Remarkably, it looks as though that Buster has managed to recreate the lineup of the Giants team that is of a kind with at least two teams from his era:
2026: .255/.309/.418, 6.5 BB%, 20.7 K%, 321 runs scored (642 “projected”)
2009: .257/.309/.389, 6.5 BB%, 19.1 K%, 657 runs scored
2014: .255/.311/.388, 7.0 BB%, 20.5 K%, 665 runs scored
There are obviously some notable differences between these teams (way better defense in 2009 & 2014) and the hitting and pitching environments have changed quite a lot (for example, the 2014 team’s 3.50 ERA was 10th-best but with all the advanced metrics just 9.4 fWAR in value — 26th!) but it seems pretty clear that the objective is to literally take the franchise back to the championship era. Most nostalgia lovers can be criticized for falling in love with a misremembered past, but credit to Buster Posey for sticking to actual facts.
If you just double some of the counting stats, though, these Giants, while projected to have one of the higher team home run totals of the century (172 — 11th out of 27). Their projected runs scored (642) would be 21st, though. But 1,422 hits? Humm baby, that’d be good enough for 12th! Then again, they’re also on pace for 396 walks (25th) and just 52 stolen bases (24th). Hmm, but their on-pace-for 316 doubles? That’d be the most by a Giants team this century.
Actually, that’d be the most doubles by a Giants team in the history of the franchise. I’m serious! I can’t believe it, either. The 314 doubles hit by the 2004 team is currently #1 in the entire history of the Giants. The 2026 Giants have already hit 158, so they’re on pace to set a new mark. And if that feels a little off to you, that’s because the Giants used to hit way more triples back in the 1800s and early 1900s. That franchise leaderboard is replete with teams from that pre-war era. The 1911 team leads the franchise with 103 triples (just 41 home runs). The 1893 team is second (101 triples — 61 home runs).
If we round up Jung Hoo Lee’s 297 plate appearances a bit, then the team is also on pace to have six hitters with at least 600 plate appearances. That’s NEVER happened in the entire history of the Giants franchise. And even if Luis Arraez were to be traded, let’s say, they’ve never had five players hit that mark in a single season either (multiple times it has happened four times). Some other positives and curios.
Casey Schmitt
He’s on pace for 30 doubles and 32 home runs in 618 plate appearances. Just 167 Giants have hit that mark in the history of the franchise and, yeah, there’s a lot of Bonds (Bobby & Barry), Willie Mays, Will Clark, etc. on there, but if you limit it to the 21st century (the Oracle Park era), just 45 Giants make the cut.
Schmitt is on pace to match 2003 Marquis Grissom in plate appearances, but with those “projected” power numbers, he ascends to some rarified air (for the Giants, anyway). He’d eclipse Willy Adames’s 30 home run mark from last season to rank 8th on the season home run total list in the Oracle Park era.
He has 85 hits through 81 games and if that pace holds (no reason to believe it will — but just in case…) a 170-hit season would tie Buster Posey’s 2014 total. Now, here’s the kicker. Buster Posey was 27 in 2014. Schmitt would be just the fourth Giant under 30 to record that many hits. Just for fun:
5. Casey Schmitt (27), 2026 — 170 (projected)
4. Buster Posey (27), 2014 — 170
3. Buster Posey (28), 2015 — 177
2. Buster Posey (25), 2012 — 178
1. Pablo Sandoval (22), 2009 — 189
Matt Duffy just missed the cut with 169 hits in 2015 at the age of 24, but that’s it. There have been 95 seasons of Giants Baseball where a player under 30 had at least 170 hits and most of them occurred before 1930. But even since 1930, the Giants’ offensive strengths coming from young players is confined to the pre-Will Clark era, with just 11 players under 30 to record at least that many hits since 1989.
So, if it happens, it will be very cool, and historically significant. But no matter the final result, 2026 being Schmitt’s breakout season is already the story.
Jung Hoo Lee
He’s on pace for 182 hits which would put him into the same company as the group I mentioned for Casey Schmitt. The story of his 2026 is also that it’s his breakout season. If his 38-doubles pace holds, he’d match 1993 Barry Bonds, 1989 Willy Clark, 1958 Orlando Cepeda, and 1941 Johnny Rucker
He’s also on pace for just 54 strikeouts, which only 90 Giants who were under 30 with 600 plate appearances have done in franchise history. Drop the age filter and we’re still talking just 144 Giants, none of whom played in the 1980s and 1990s. In the Oracle Park era, it’s happened just four times:
4. Buster Posey, 2015 — 52 K
3. Omar Vizquel, 2006 — 51 K
2. Barry Bonds, 2002 — 47 K
1. Barry Bonds, 2004 — 41 K
I deem this absurd! And hope it happens.
Luis Arraez
It’s a shame he’s likely to be traded, because he’s on pace to have a lot of hits in his age-29 season which puts him in the same group I placed JHL and Schmitt in, but with just 13 strikeouts through the first half, his “on pace for” total of 26 would put him on a list of Giants that hasn’t welcomed anyone new in over 70 years: have fewer than 30 strikeouts in a season. The last time was 1955 when Don Mueller struck out just 12 times in 640 plate appearances. Again, a shame he won’t end the season on the Giants.
Let’s talk pitching
- Their “on pace for” mark of 700 earned runs allowed would land the 2026 team into the top 10 most runs allowed in franchise history, pushing the 1995 squad (699 runs) down one notch. They’d slot in just behind 2008 (701). If they wind up with a team ERA of 4.40 ERA (where it stands now), that’d be 12th-worst in franchise history, ahead of teams like 1997, 1984, 2018, 2008, and 2005, but behind 1947, 2017, 1970, 1895, 1896, 1930, 2006, 2020, 1999, 1996, and 1995.
- The Giants are on pace for 870 innings from their starting rotation. Now, not to be misleading, they got just 837 innings from the starting staff last season.
- They’re on pace for just 30 saves, which hasn’t happened since 1992.
- On pace for 1,274 strikeouts, though, which would be the 11th-best in franchise history.
- On the other hand, 616 walks, which would be the 8th-worst in franchise history. They walked 652 in 2007 and 623 in 2000, so it would be the 3rd-worst result of the Oracle Park era.
This was a simple doubling exercise just to see if there was much fun in taking the team as is and imagining the future. If you want to be more scientific, you can always go to players’ FanGraphs pages and see the rest of the season projections to get perhaps a more realistic look at where they’ll land. For example, just doubling Logan Webb’s numbers gives him 26 starts, 166.2 IP, and a 3.36 ERA with a 3.8 fWAR, but if you look at, say, ZiPS, he’s projected to make 15 more starts (28), wind up with 178.1 IP, a 3.14 ERA, and 4.3 fWAR. Half a win better, and something proved by the eye test as he’s looked simply dominant and like his old self since coming off the IL.
So, the Giants could do better overall the rest of the way. They’ve been slightly better here in June, after all… then again, with the trade deadline looming and the dog days of summer on the horizon, is it reasonable to expect improvement on what has been a bad team for three months? Eh, why not? If you’ve read this far, it means you’re a fan who never stops hoping.
