This weekend (Sat., Oct. 18, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada for UFC Vancouver. Though it’s an absolute shame that Anthony
Hernandez was forced to withdraw from his potential title eliminator versus Reinier de Ridder, Brendan Allen is an intriguing enough replacement that should still test “RDR.” Fortunately, the support cast is strong, a quality mix of Canadian talent and veteran contenders. There are fun fights top-to-bottom, so I’m expecting an entertaining evening in “Rain City.”
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Bantamweight: Marlon Vera (+110) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (-130)
Best Win for Vera? Sean O’Malley For Zahabi? Jose Aldo
Current Streak: Vera has lost two straight, while Zahabi has won his last six bouts
X-Factor: Vera can be too patient
How these two match up: If you like MMA boxing, this is an amazing match up.
Though boxing is undoubtedly the strongest asset of each man, they go about their work in different ways. Vera is a powerful and extremely composed sniper. His defense is tight, allowing him to work behind the jab and line up heavy counter connections. Zahabi, conversely, is a smart combination punches who builds off his success very well. He’s not an overwhelming athlete, yet Zahabi’s comfort in the pocket and quality head movement nevertheless allow him to beat up his foes in exchanges.
It’s so hard to trust Vera these days. He’s lost three of his last four, and volume was an issue in all of those defeats. Great defense and an iron chin don’t matter if Vera doesn’t throw back. Subsequently, he falls into the Diaz brother problem category of “would be unbeaten if rounds never ended” … but that’s not the game!
Is Zahabi the guy to take advantage? I’m not so sure. Vera has only been flustered by longer, faster, and/or more powerful athletes, and Zahabi doesn’t fit any of those descriptors. He’s more likely to give Vera the fight he wants, and “Chito” does have a good deal more sting on his shots. In addition, Vera seems well-equipped to pull ahead on the strength of his kicks (if he remembers that part of his game).
There can be no trusting Vera, but he’s the better fighter and should win.
Prediction: Vera via decision
Women’s Bantamweight: Manon Fiorot (-225) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicious (+185)
Best Win for Fiorot? Erin Blanchfield For Jasudavicious? Jessica Andrade
Current Streak: Fiorot lost her last bout to champion Valentina Shevchenko, while Jasudavicious has won five in a row
X-Factor: How does Fiorot rebound from his first UFC defeat?
How these two match up: This is a well-deserved step up for Canada’s finest female fighter.
Fiorot is one of her division’s best athletes. Her background in kickboxing and karate shows up in every fights, as she’s a serviceable boxer but really shines at distance when able to break her opponents down with kicks. Jasudavicious, conversely, is a mauler on the canvas. At 36 years of age, she’s only recently started blending her kickboxing and wrestling together, which has really improved her success rate in dragging foes down to the canvas.
I like Jasudavicious and her recent improvements, but this is a brutal match up for her. Fiorot is one of the best sprawl-and-brawl fighters in the division — ask Erin Blanchfield! She’s incredibly strong in the clinch and will be the much more fluid striker here. Unless Jasudavicious can somehow knock down Fiorot, she’s going to seriously struggle to take or hold down the French contender.
Most likely, Jasudavicious ends up on the end of the side kick for long periods of time.
Prediction: Fiorot via decision
Bantamweight: Cody Gibson (-166) vs. Aoriqileng (+140)
Best Win for Gibson? John Dodson For Aoriqileng? Johnny Munoz Jr.
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Both men are kill-or-be-kill fighters
How these two match up: This is going to be chaos for however long it lasts!
Gibson is all about offense. He’s a strong wrestler with a heavy top game, but Gibson is more than willing to throw punches-in-bunches until able to find his way to the takedown. Aoriqileng, conversely, is a more single-minded slugger. He’s down for a brawl though, happy to take a punch to land one if needed, and his takedown defense has improved quite a bit in the four years he’s been on the UFC roster.
I’m torn here. On one hand, Gibson is definitely the better wrestler and ground fighter, and he also throws in combination more than “The Mongolian Murderer.” However, Aoriqileng has fewer miles on the tires, and he’s definitely sniping with more raw power.
I enjoy watching “The Renegade” fight, but he often sets a pace he cannot maintain. Against a younger and likely better athlete in Aoriqileng, it feels likely that the effort of grounding Aoriqileng will take a lot out of Gibson’s tank. Then, he’ll be dealing with a faster, heavier puncher who will be catching him coming in.
Barring a quick finish, that’s not a recipe for success.
Prediction: Aoriqileng via decision
Lightweight: Kyle Nelson (-102) vs. Matt Frevola (-118)
Best Win for Nelson? Bill Algeo For Frevola? Drew Dober
Current Streak: Nelson lost his last bout, while Frevola has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Nelson is back up at Lightweight after years at 145 pounds
How these two match up: I declare this match up to be a certified Lightweight banger.
Nelson is something of an overachiever. After a 1-4 (1) start to his UFC career, “The Monster” fought his way back to a three-fight win streak over solid competition. He’s a crafty kickboxer who lands with enough power to slow opponents down and convince them to play his game. Frevola, conversely, is a very aggressive slugger with a scholastic wrestling background. Nelson is an explosive athlete with good power, but he also has issues with running into counters and setting too intense of a pace.
I agree with the pick ’em odds here, as there are obvious advantages for both. Frevola is the better athlete and stronger wrestler, but Nelson is the more technical kickboxer and has picked apart fatigued foes in the past. For me, the deciding factor is that Nelson is coming up from Featherweight. Frevola should be able to find better success with his takedowns as a result of the size advantage, which could be the deciding factor in a competitive striking battle.
