On Saturday, the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee revealed the 16 host sites for the 2026 Big Dance in alphabetical order:
- Duke
- Iowa
- Louisville
- LSU
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- North Carolina
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
- TCU
- Texas
- UCLA
- UConn
- Vanderbilt
- West Virginia
ESPN Bracketologist Charlie Creme has the 16 teams seeded like this:
- UConn, UCLA, South Carolina, Texas
- Vanderbilt, LSU, Iowa, Duke
- Michigan, Louisville, TCU, Ohio State
- UNC, West Virginia, Minnesota, Oklahoma
Here are some more thoughts on how the seeds might actually shake out, but first, a dive into the No. 1 overall seed debate.
Sorry UConn, UCLA has earned the No. 1 overall seed
I think UCLA should be the No. 1 overall seed.
Picking up major resume win after major resume win—while UConn is picking up mediocre
wins over Big East teams—and not moving up to the No. 1 spot doesn’t make sense to me. Yes, UConn has a lot of quality wins, and, yes, UCLA has a loss, but at some point a while back, the Bruins’ resume surpassed that of the Huskies—and now it’s just overwhelming.
I do think UConn is the slightly better team though, as they’re able to go nine deep with high-impact or capable-of-being-high-impact players, while UCLA really only goes seven deep with their starters, plus Angela Dugalić and Sienna Betts. UConn has Sarah Strong, Azzi Fudd, Blanca Quiñonez, Allie Ziebell, Ashlynn Shade, KK Arnold, Serah Williams, Kayleigh Heckel and Jana El Alfy. It’s hard to contend with that.
It’s clear that the other two No. 1-seeds will be Texas and South Carolina. So let’s move on to the 12 remaining host teams, as well as four that just missed out, and talk about where they deserve to be seeded.
Prognosticating how the seeding should shake out in the final March Madness bracket
Here’s a look at the rest of the top 16 teams broken down by conference. The teams from the SEC and Big Ten played in a stronger conference and therefore have more quality wins than the teams from the ACC and Big 12. With that in mind, I’ve listed the losses that each team has suffered, along with ESPN’s Bracketology projection for their final seed.
SEC
- No. 2 seed Vanderbilt: losses to No. 1-seed South Carolina, No. 5-seed Ole Miss (x2), No. 7-seed Georgia
- No. 2-seed LSU: losses to No. 1-seed South Carolina (x2), No. 1-seed Texas, No. 2-seed Vandy, No. 5-seed Kentucky
- No. 4-seed Oklahoma: losses to No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 1-seed Texas, No. 2-seed Vandy, No. 2-seed LSU (x2), No. 5-seed Ole Miss, No. 5-seed Kentucky
- No. 5-seed Kentucky: losses to No. 1-seed South Carolina (x2). No. 1-seed Texas, No. 2-seed Vandy (x2), No. 5-seed Maryland, No. 6-seed Alabama, No. 7-seed Georgia, No. 8-seed Tennessee, “First Four Out” Mississippi State
- No. 5-seed Ole Miss: losses to No. 1-seed South Carolina, No. 1-seed Texas (x2), No. 2-seed LSU, No. 5-seed Michigan State, No. 5-seed Kentucky, No. 6-seed Alabama, No. 7-seed Georgia, “First Four Out” Texas A&M, Kansas State, Florida
Big Ten
- No. 2-seed Iowa: losses to No. 1-seed UConn, No. 1-seed UCLA (x2), No. 4-seed Minnesota, No. 9-seed Iowa State, No. 9-seed USC
- No. 3-seed Michigan: losses to No. 1-seed UConn, No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 2-seed Vandy, No. 2-seed Iowa (x2), 7-Washington
- No. 3-seed Ohio State: losses to No. 1-seed UConn, No. 1-seed UCLA (x2), No. 2-seed Iowa, No. 3-Michigan, No. 4-seed Minnesota, No. 5-seed Maryland
- No. 4-seed Minnesota: losses to No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 3-seed Michigan, No. 5-seed Maryland, No. 5-seed Michigan State, No. 6-seed Alabama, No. 7-seed Washington, “Next Four Out” Kansas
- No. 5-seed Maryland: losses to No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 2-seed Iowa, No. 3-seed Michigan, No. 3-seed Ohio State, No. 7-seed Washington, No. 7-seed Oregon (x2), No. 7-seed Illinois
- No. 5-seed Michigan State: losses to No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 2-seed Iowa, No. 3-seed Michigan (x2), No. 3-seed Ohio State, No. 5-seed Maryland, No. 7-seed Illinois, Wisconsin
ACC
- No. 2-seed Duke: losses to No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 1-seed South Carolina, No. 2-seed LSU, No. 4-seed UNC, No. 4–seed WVU, No. 6-seed Baylor, No. 10-seed Clemson, USF
- No. 3-seed Louisville: losses to No. 1-seed UConn, No. 1-seed South Carolina, No. 2-seed Duke (x2), No. 5-seed Kentucky, No. 6-seed Notre Dame, No. 12-seed UVA
- No. 4-seed UNC: losses to No. 1-seed UCLA, No. 1-seed Texas, No. 2-seed Duke, No. 3-seed Louisville (x2), No. 6-seed Notre Dame, “Next Four Out” Stanford
Big 12
- No. 3-seed TCU: losses to No. 3-seed Ohio State, No. 4-seed West Virginia, No. 6-seed Texas Tech, No. 10-seed Colorado, “First Four Out” Utah
- No. 4-seed West Virginia: losses to No. 3-seed TCU (x2), No. 3-seed Ohio State, No. 6-seed Texas Tech, No. 8-seed Villanova, “First Four Out” Utah
The only teams on this list that never lost to a team that is projected to be lower than a No. 5 seed are LSU, Oklahoma and Ohio State. I think that should be taken into consideration when determining the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. Oklahoma has a case to be higher than a No. 4 seed. The problem is that, though none of the Sooners’ losses came to bad teams, they missed out on most of their chances at quality wins. The one huge exception is their win over South Carolina.
The projected No. 3-seed Buckeyes, on the other hand, have five wins over teams on this list. However, it’s hard to move them up to a No. 2 seed when fellow No. 3-seed Michigan has just five losses to OSU’s seven, and when No. 2-seed Iowa convincingly beat Michigan twice despite their two losses to projected No. 9 seeds.
I think Duke is a team you can move off the No. 2-seed line, as I’m not big on rewarding teams that got hot late. They have just three wins over teams on this list, plus eight losses, including to projected No. 10-seed Clemson and a team not even on the bubble in South Florida. I also think that UNC got too much love for a team out of the weak ACC, and perhaps doesn’t deserve to host.
Kentucky has quality wins over LSU, Louisville, Oklahoma and Ole Miss, but also 10 losses, including a bad one to a Mississippi State squad that is on the wrong side of the bubble. Ole Miss beat Vandy twice and Oklahoma once, but has 11 losses, including two to teams not even on the bubble. Michigan State (eight losses) has an alarming loss to Wisconsin and only two wins over teams on this list (Minnesota and Ole Miss). I think Maryland is the projected No. 5-seed that best combines enough quality wins (four over teams on this list) with not too many losses (eight) and no ridiculously bad losses (no one below a projected No. 7 seed).
The Tar Heels, in comparison to the Terps, have one win over a team on this list, as well as a loss to a team in Stanford that is part of ESPN’s “Next Four Out.” Also, it was believed by many that Maryland’s head-to-head advantage over Minnesota would give them the edge if the final hosting slot came down to the two of them. Instead, the Gophers got the nod and the Terps did not.
