Trying to make preseason predictions for where the Golden State Warriors would finish in the standings was an impossible task, because there were three deeply unknowable variables. How good the team would be was the obvious
variable — the one that exists for predicting and projecting any team. But the Warriors also had the unknowable question of how their health would fare. And, like 14 other teams, they had the extremely unknowable variable: the state of the Western Conference.
The West is good. It is oh so good. A year ago, the team with the eighth-best record in the West had a 48-34 record; in the East? 37-45. And there was reason to think that the West would only get stronger this year, with the top two picks in the draft — Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper — coming to the conference, and Victor Wembanyama (hopefully) having a healthy season.
As such, even if you were very high on the Warriors entering the season, you might have looked at the conference and the potential for injuries and thought the Dubs would be outside of the top four, and the home court advantage that comes with it. You might have even thought they’d be outside of the top six, and forced to compete in the Play-In Tournament. And if you weren’t very high on Golden State? Well, you might have them in a dogfight just to make the Play-In Tournament at all.
So let’s do a quick temperature check of the conference, because some teams have exceeded expectations and others have failed to live up to them. It’s time to recalibrate our expectations a little bit.
Entering Tuesday’s games, the Warriors are seventh in the conference, occupying the first Play-In spot. They have a 9-6 record, and a +1.6 net rating that ranks 16th in the league. Here’s how everyone else is doing.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (14-1)
Net rating: +17.7 (1st in NBA)
As Warriors fans are well aware of, the label “dynasty” has to be prescribed in hindsight, not ahead of time. Claims that the Thunder are starting a dynasty should be mostly ignored but … gee … they sure look the part, don’t they?
The defending champs took another step forward this year … and that’s with arguably their second-best player, Jalen Williams, not having played yet, and their third-best player, Chet Holmgren, having missed four games. OKC is, without a shadow of a doubt, the best team in the NBA. But again, as Warriors fans are well aware of, being the best team doesn’t guarantee you anything when the playoffs come around.
2. Denver Nuggets (10-3)
Net rating: +12.5 (3rd in NBA)
How’s this for a dominant start to the year: the Nuggets have won 10 games, and nine of them have come by double-figures. They’ve lost three games: an overtime contest on the road against the Warriors, a two-point road loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, and a three-point defeat against the Chicago Bulls. What’s there to say about Denver? Nikola Jokić looks headed for his fourth MVP award, and the Nuggets look as good as we all feared they’d be.
3. Houston Rockets (9-3)
Net rating: +13.0 (2nd in NBA)
We knew the Rockets would be good, but there were still questions as to how well their all-big lineup would function, after trading Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, signing nearly every big on the market, and losing Fred VanVleet to a season-ending injury before the year began. So far, so good in Houston. The Rockets are 9-3, and their three losses have come against the Thunder (in double overtime), the Detroit Pistons (by one point), and the San Antonio Spurs … teams with a combined record of 35-7. The West is incredibly strong, but for now it looks like there’s a clear top three with the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets.
4. Los Angeles Lakers (10-4)
Net rating: +1.9 (15th in NBA)
The Lakers have been a bit of a funny team this year. Their record is fantastic, but all four of their losses have been by double-digits, and a combined 73 points. They’ve had a fairly light schedule this year, but that doesn’t. mean we should expect them to come crashing down towards .500 … after all, LeBron James hasn’t played yet this year, and that’s about to change.
5. San Antonio Spurs (9-4)
Net rating: +5.3 (9th in NBA)
The Warriors have seen firsthand how good the Spurs can be. The Warriors have also seen how good their own team can be, as they swept San Antonio in a road baseball series last week. Still, we can expect some regression from San Antonio in coming weeks: Wembanyama is going to be sidelined for a while, and they’ve jumped out to a hot start behind a fairly week schedule: their nine wins came against teams with a combined record of 46-77. This is a team the Warriors should have sights on surpassing, but should certainly be very worried about.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-5)
Net rating: +7.1 (5th in NBA)
The Wolves are likely to be very good this year. The Warriors have seen how good they can be, such as when they lost to them in the Western Conference Semifinals earlier this year. But, despite the nice record and the shiny net rating, Minnesota has been the league’s most extreme case of beating up on bad teams and losing to good ones. All nine of their victories have come against teams with losing records, and all five of their defeats have come against teams with winning records. Their wins have come against not just mediocre teams, but bad ones: the combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 33-90. For the most part, they haven’t been close against the good teams, either. Their games against teams with winning records: an 18-point road loss to the Lakers, a 13-point home loss to the Nuggets, a one-point home loss to the Lakers, a 23-point road loss to the New York Knicks, and an 11-point home loss to the Nuggets. At this point they’re ahead of the Warriors in the standings (by half a game), with a dramatically better net rating, but I’m not confident they’ve been a better team.
8. Phoenix Suns (8-6)
Net rating: +5.4 (8th in NBA)
Through the first month, the Suns have been the biggest positive surprise in the West. They traded away Kevin Durant, and the biggest name in the return has yet to suit up due to injury. They bought out Bradley Beal. They appeared to be hitting the reset button a bit. And then, after squeaking by the Sacramento Kings in their first game, lost four straight. But since then they’ve gone 7-2, with one of their losses coming at the hands of the Warriors. As has been a theme in this article, the Suns have mostly had their success by beating up on bad teams — an impressive 12-point victory over the Spurs stands as their lone W against a team with a winning record. The Warriors saw firsthand how pesky Phoenix can be, but this probably isn’t a team that is going to be seriously contending for the playoffs in a month or two.
9. Portland Trail Blazers (6-7)
Net rating: -1.3 (20th in NBA)
The Blazers have been one of the most shocking teams in the NBA this year. Pegged to finish near the bottom of the West, they’ve floated around .500, and they’ve done so in impressive style: they’ve beaten the Warriors, Lakers, and Nuggets, and are the only team in the league to beat the Thunder. They’ve had an incredibly difficult schedule, too, as most of their losses have come against good teams as well. Still and all, with Damian Lillard not expected to make his return until next season, we can probably count on Portland to be a hard out rather than an actual playoff contender … unless the bottom of the conference keeps underperforming.
10. Utah Jazz (5-8)
Net rating: -3.6 (22nd in NBA)
The Jazz have been far more entertaining than expected, but they’re not good. No one expected them to be in the Play-In standings a month into the season, but that says much more about the teams behind them than about Utah’s performance. We expected them to be bad this year, and they’re bad this year.
11. Memphis Grizzlies (4-10)
Net rating: -9.0 (25th in NBA)
The Grizzlies are an absolute disaster. They traded Desmond Bane in the offseason and, what do you know, look worse after getting rid of one of their best players. The Ja Morant drama has nearly boiled over, and it looks like we’re witnessing the early scenes of an ugly divorce. Six of the team’s losses have been by double figures, and only one win has come against a team with a winning record (and that was the over-performing, barely over .500 Suns). Last year, when the Grizzlies were battling the Warriors in the standings despite some chaos and absences early in the year, I felt like they were a team to be concerned about com 2025-26. Now they’re concerning only to those who care about them. I think it’s already clear that the Warriors don’t really need to worry about Memphis this season.
12. LA Clippers (4-10)
Net rating: -7.1 (24th in NBA)
And here we have, far and away, the biggest disappointing in the NBA this year. The Clippers felt like a team that should be in the discussion with the Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, and Timberwolves for second-best in the West. They shored up their depth by adding Brook Lopez, John Collins, Bradley Beal, and Chris Paul (though they lost Norman Powell), and seemed primed for a big year. And then they lost to the Jazz by 21 points on Opening Night and that’s the way their first month of the year went. I fully expect LAC to make a run at some point this year … they still have James Harden and Ivica Zubac, Kawhi Leonard should be back on the court soon, and Ty Lue is a great coach. But they’ve dug a hole that the Warriors — a team that surely entered the year expecting to fight them in the standings — has to be grateful for.
13. Dallas Mavericks (4-11)
Net rating: -6.4 (23rd in NBA)
Have you ever seen a team that just landed the top pick in a fantastic draft look this depressing, this fast? It’s chaos in Dallas. Nico Harrison has been fired, about nine months too late. Anthony Davis hasn’t played in three weeks, and it’s not out of the question that he’s played his final game with the team. Kyrie Irving might not play again this year, and it’s not out of the question that he’s played his final game with the team, either. Klay Thompson is coming off the bench now. They’ve lost games to the lowly New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards, both at home. Some might have thought that Flagg and Davis could lead the Mavs to the playoffs this year, but it is painfully clear that it won’t be happening.
14. Sacramento Kings (3-11)
Net rating: -12.0 (26th in NBA)
The Kings, like the Mavericks, entered the season as a team that wasn’t a favorite to make the playoffs, but could certainly make some noise if things clicked. And my goodness, things have not clicked. Since beating a Warriors team that was playing without their three best players, the Kings have lost six straight games, all by double figures … and by a combined 132 points. In fairness, their schedule has been extremely difficult, but they’re already at the point in the season where they’ve moved Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup. And with all due respect to that legend, that’s not a good sign. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll get back into the playoff push.
15. New Orleans Pelicans (2-12)
Net rating: -13.5 (27th in NBA)
If the Pelicans can get some health for Zion Williamson (who has only played five games) and Jordan Poole (who has only played seven), they could at least become entertaining, especially when Dejounte Murray (scheduled to return early in 2026) is back. But I think we can close the door on them being any good at all. It ain’t happening. Not this year, at least.
