Let’s think about the horizon for the St. Louis Cardinals. Is it too early in the rebuild to do this? Yes, of course. Are there more ups and downs coming than a prairie dog in the summer? No doubt. But, isn’t this what it is to be a fan? I love a numbers deep dive that reveals something about a player’s approach that has changed in some way. That’ll always be the bulk of my writing for Viva El Birdos. There will be numbers here, too. But, I’d like to think philosophically about the larger forces
that will shape the franchise over the next few years.
Let’s consider the future of Rainiel Rodriguez. The readers of this site are legendarily plugged in to this team, so it’s not like you need an introduction. He’s the all-world 19 year old catching prospect in single-A that’s rocketing up national prospect lists all over the place. How’s he doing so far this season? Well, I’m glad I can set up a straw man question to answer whenever I want. In short, he’s lighting the world on fire.
It’s early (Can we just all caveat this until June? We all know it is, so let’s just all know it inherently together!), but Rodriguez (R-Rod? Rainman? Something else?) is torching the Peoria environs to the tune of a .307/.440/.557 slash line, good for a 157 wRC+. He’s walking nearly as much as he’s striking out and hammering balls all over the yard for a .249 ISO. He’s also adjusting, at least according to the inimitable coverage of Kyle Reis.
Did I mention he’s 19 years old and will be the entire season? He’s the youngest player in single-A as of this writing. MLB.com has him ranked 31st in their pipeline and if he continues this type of offensive pace, he’s surely going to rise on that list. He’s a precocious hitter. So much so that I compared his 18 year old season to Juan Soto’s for a site that you’re not going to like (before I joined VEB!) and found his batting line to be comparable, but Rodriguez hit for more power at age 18. Is this exciting? Um, was Ozzie Smith good at defense? (I’m not going to answer that – you’ve got this!)
To me, this is where things get interesting. There are several issues that present themselves here about the future of Rodriguez, and those questions overlap to a stunning degree with the questions about the future of the franchise. Alas, Rainiel Rodriguez is a catcher. That’s an interesting position for a top prospect to have to begin with, but especially in a franchise that has two (flawed) catching prospects older than him and an awkward middle school dance with Ivan Herrera and his future at the position. Obviously, we have no idea if Jimmy Crooks or Leo Bernal will work out at the position, but my concerns run deeper than the stockpile of catchers the franchise has.
A study published at fangraphs compared the top position players at each position in their careers and found catchers to be noticeably lagging.
Granted, these are the ten highest WAR players of all time at each position, but it’s not a massive logical leap to tell you that trend would continue down the player value spectrum. So, let’s assume for this argument that Rainiel Rodriguez’s career will be shorter and his offensive production will be lower if he stays at catcher. It’s not like his production will crater at the position, but there’s a clear indication that catching is going to cost some offensive value.
Here’s where R-Rod’s (I’m just going to start trying out nicknames casually until one feels right) ascent through the minors crashes headlong into the Cardinals trajectory. In case you weren’t aware, the Cardinals are in a rebuild (ok, don’t call it a rebuild – but it’s a rebuild!). However, ss of this writing, they are winning at a pace that no one really expected. What if that…keeps up? I have doubts about the ability of the pitching staff to continue to support wins at this rate, but let’s consider a path where the Cardinals contend quicker than anyone expects.
Do the Cardinals consider moving Rodriguez off of catcher? Decoupling the bat from the onerous position would certainly speed his movement through the minors. What if you could add a solidly above average bat as soon as late next season? What if it’s a monster bat? Where do you play him? You already have Herrera soaking up lots of DH appearances. Burly is a solidly above average major league hitter at first base. Can the Rainman even play anywhere else? He’s listed at 5’10”, not a traditional first baseman by any stretch. Is it even worth changing his position? What if you just have Samuel Basallo on your hands? That’s an incredibly valuable commodity!
It’s really only an odd situation if the Cardinals decide to hit the gas pedal. I do not believe that’s the plan from Chaim Bloom and Co, but I’ve been thinking lately about the scenario in which the team makes Bloom hit the gas a little and contend. I’m not talking about selling the farm for vets – I don’t think that will ever happen. But I do wonder if, because of the unique position the Cardinals franchise is in with the catchers they have, and due to the nuclear nature of Rodriguez’s bat, the Cardinals would consider moving him off of catcher for his long term offensive benefit and a potential accelerator pedal on the rebuild.
This is all premature. No doubt. But, I just let my mind wander down this path. I’ve also had some compelling conversations about this IRL and wanted to write this into the universe. The Cardinals will likely do a smarter version of Mo’s path of least resistance (sorry for the unexpected Mo drop). As for me, due to the unique nature of the current franchise and R-Rod’s skills, I’d be looking for a secondary position for him (he’s played some 1B already this year) at a minimum. Flexibility is always good when it comes to a roster.
It’s worth watching how they handle this 19 year old wunderkind if he continues to produce at such high levels. There are lots of legitimate positions to stake out on this issue – let me know what path you see in the comments. And, as always, thanks for reading!
