Sunday will mark a first for the New England Patriots or Carolina Panthers, one way or the other. For the New England, the game will be an opportunity to earn its first home victory under head coach Mike
Vrabel. For Carolina, meanwhile, it will be a chance to get to .500 for the first time in the two-year tenure of its own HC, Dave Canales.
If the bookmakers are to be believed, the first outcome is the most likely: the Patriots are isted as 5.5-point home favorites heading into the battle of 1-2 teams. As a look at our head-to-head comparison shows, they might just live up to that billing.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Panthers pass defense: This might just be the most pivotal battle of the afternoon on Sunday because both units have been among the most efficient in the NFL through three weeks. The key matchup between them will be in the trenches: if Carolina’s multi-look defense can find success against an offensive line still building chemistry and by extension disrupt Drake Maye, the team’s chances of victory will improve dramatically. Based on Maye’s performance so far and the general potential displayed by the group, however, we are still giving a slight edge to the home team in this one. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Panthers pass offense: The Bryce Young-led Panthers passing offense has been up and down so far this season, and it will now go up against a unit that played arguably its best football of the year in Week 3 against Pittsburgh. Between a disruptive pass rush going against an offensive line missing two of its starters and a secondary that might have star cornerback Christian Gonzalez available for the first time all year, New England’s pass defense should, on paper, have the upper hand. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Panthers run defense: The Patriots’ running game definitely has some pieces between a mobile quarterback, a versatile trio of backs and a physical offensive line. So far this year, however, the group has yet to find its footing. Last week’s three-fumble outing was a major step back, but New England has had a hard time establishing a steady presence on the ground the previous two games as well. Carolina has not been particularly stout against the run either — meaning that this could be a bounce-back opportunity — but the lack of consistency from Rhamondre Stevenson and company is a concern. | Edge: Panthers
Patriots run defense vs. Panthers rushing offense: Run against the Patriots at your own risk. A top five run defense in the NFL, the unit led by stalwart defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams has allowed only 2.8 yards (2nd) and -0.194 expected points (5th) per run. Carolina, for comparison, has been quite average on the ground. That does not mean Chuba Hubbard and company can’t make some noise and find success, but New England losing that battle would be a surprise given both units’ performances up to this point. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
New England’s kicking game units have been uneven through three games; the positives have been impressive, while the negatives have been head-shakingly bad. Now, the group led by coordinator Jeremy Springer will go up against a Panthers kicking game operation that looks like a well-oiled machine three weeks in. If the Patriots bring their A-game, this will be a competitive affair. So far, however, their A-game has only appeared irregularly. | Edge: Panthers
Coaching
It is looking increasingly likely that the Patriots will be without their nominal defensive coordinator, Terrell Williams, for a third straight week. Nonetheless, Zak Kuhr looks like a capable replacement which in turn answers one big question about the Patriots’ staff — a staff that collectively offers more experience than Carolina’s. In a game oftentimes won in the margins that difference might come into play in the end. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
The Patriots and Panthers are entering Week 4 in similar situations and fairly even matched across the board. Whether the qualitative differences will indeed end up tilting the game one way or another will be seen, but there is a path to victory for both teams. In the end, the supposed strength-versus-strength battle between New England’s passing offense and Carolina’s pass defense might just end up as the critical battle. It is one the home team very well can win.
