The Atlanta Braves are looking for lucky number seven tonight as they face the Miami Marlins. They are currently on a six-game win streak with Bryce Elder taking the mound to face current Marlins’ staff ace Eury Pérez.
Eury Pérez has been a bright spot for the Miami Marlins this season who recently ended a twelve-game losing streak on July 26th. Since then, they have won six of eight to include a sweep of the Phillies and taking three of four from the Mets. Pérez has already pitched the most innings
in a season of his career with 104.2 and is looking to be a building block for the Marlins. He has a 3.44 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, and is striking out 9.6 per nine innings.
His expected ERA (xERA) shows he has been a bit lucky with a 3.83, and this is largely due to a BABIP of .248 which is unsustainable over a long period of time. Still, he has been a legitimately solid pitcher with an expected batting average against him of .211 that ranks him in the top 17.0 percent of qualified pitchers with great chase and miss stuff.
One area of concern for the Braves is that Pérez has a solid 4-seam fastball having a Run Value of five. The Braves struggle against 4-seam fastballs this year outside of Baldwin, Harris, and Olson. Five qualified hitters have a negative run value on the pitch and Smith and Albies have two, and one respectively. The good news is that when the Braves faced Pérez back in April, they tagged him for three earned runs in 4.0 innings. However, a lot can change in that amount of time. No player on the Braves active roster has faced him more than eight at-bats, but most have done well in that timeframe. Baldwin has a 2.125 OPS with two HRs in six ABs, Acuña has a 1.738 OPS with one HR in six ABs, Albies has a 1.000 OPS with a HR in seven ABs, Harris has a .333 average in six ABs, Olson has a .819 OPS in eight ABs, and Riley has a .400 average in five ABs.
On paper, it looks like the offense may do well tonight, but small sample sizes can be deceiving, and Pérez has settled down quite a bit as the season has come along. In fact, his last five starts he has a 1.69 ERA with thirty-one strikeouts to only eight walks.
Bryce Elder will be taking the mound and is continuing to have a season that has likely surprised many. He has had his ups and downs but has maintained an ERA of 3.84 while leading the Braves in innings pitched with 119.2. Fun side note, the Braves have already used thirty-one different pitchers this season and that does not include the trade deadline acquisitions.
When Elder faced the Marlins in April, he had one of the best starts of the season. He gave up zero earned runs on four hits in 5.2 innings while striking out seven to only two walks. Since the start of July, Elder has an ERA of exactly 3.00, but has been extremely lucky with a FIP of 7.14 with a K/BB ratio of only 1.8. If you look at his Statcast you will see a sea of blue, which indicates he has been below average in almost every area that matters when looking at his peripherals. He has been aided heavily by a season BABIP of .263 that is well below his career average of .289. On field results are what matter though in terms of outcomes, so if he can maintain this ERA, which seems highly unlikely, you likely won’t find many Braves fans complaining.
This game will likely come down to how the offenses do. Looking at the ERAs of the pitchers, one may assume it will be a pitcher’s duel, but upon digging into the weeds a bit more it does not appear that will be the case.
Since the start of July, the Braves are tied with the Cubs for the most runs scored in MLB. The Marlins are twentieth. If we narrow the timeframe down to since the All-Star break, the Braves are seventh in runs scored while the Marlins are way down to twenty-eighth.
If the Braves can get to Eury Pérez like they have in the past, they should have no problem winning this game, but nothing is ever guaranteed in baseball.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
Game Info
Game Time: Wednesday, August 5th, 7:15 pm EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Watch: BravesVision
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
