Last week ATS: 8-6 (3-4 National, 5-2 B1G)
Season ATS: 62-63 (17-28 National, 35-25 B1G)
I could complain about a few close spreads that didn’t fall my way last week. Instead, I’ll take the 8-6 record and move on to this week. Sure, the national record could be better, but at least we are
doing work when it comes to Big Ten games.
Hopefully the positive start to October is a sign of things to come during the rest of the month.
National Games
No. 8 Alabama (-3.5) v. No. 14 Missouri – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Alabama has rebounded nicely from their ugly season opener against Florida State. The Crimson Tide not only beat Georgia, they gained some revenge on Vanderbilt last week. Ty Simpson has looked great since the loss to the Seminoles. About the only concern for the Alabama offense is the amount of drops Ryan Williams has so far this season.
Missouri has a chance to inject some chaos into the SEC. Beau Pribula is the quarterback Penn State should have kept since he is playing better than Drew Allar. The running game of the Tigers behind Ahmad Hardy has been great, while the defense isn’t giving up much.
I think Missouri has what it takes to beat Alabama, who could be in for a letdown after two big wins.
Missouri 28, Alabama 24
No. 6 Oklahoma v. Texas (-1.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Details are still murky on whether John Mateer will be cleared to play in the Red River Rivalry (don’t call it a shootout). If Mateer is able to play, Texas is cooked. In the four games he has played this year, Mateer has thrown for at least 270 yards in every game, along with adding five rushing touchdowns in those contests.
The Sooner defense has also been tough to crack, only allowing 36 points so far this season.
Did Ohio State break Arch Manning? The Texas quarterback has been a huge disappointment. If his last name wasn’t Manning he probably would have already been sitting on the Texas bench. I just don’t like the feeling I’m getting from Texas right now. The loss to the Buckeyes is understandable. The loss at Florida was just stupefying because the Gators haven’t been good this season.
The return of Mateer will be what pushes Oklahoma over the edge and likely eliminates the Longhorns from College Football Playoff contention.
Oklahoma 23, Texas 20
No. 10 Georgia (-3.5) v. Auburn – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Georgia is great at handling their business against teams they should beat, like they did against Kentucky last week. Gunner Stockton is an ok quarterback, he’s just not good enough to lead the Bulldogs to a title. Saying that sounds especially ridiculous considering something called Stetson Bennett IV led Georgia to two national titles.
What will help Georgia this week is their defense should be able to get after Jackson Arnold, who Auburn has had a tough time protecting. I know the Tigers lost to two teams ranked in the top-10 right now, but I don’t think Auburn is all that good. I’m probably playing with fire backing a ranked road favorite against an unranked team that is retiring Cam Newton’s jersey on Saturday night.
The Bulldogs have won eight straight against Auburn, with all of those victories coming by at least seven points. I’ll side with Georgia to continue their dominance against a Hugh Freeze team that still hasn’t found itself.
Georgia 27, Auburn 17
B1G Games
No. 1 Ohio State (-14.5) v. No. 17 Illinois – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Ohio State’s defense will have a test on their hands on Saturday when they travel to Champaign. Luke Altmyer doesn’t make many mistakes, tossing 12 touchdowns and no interceptions so far this season. Wide receiver Hank Beatty is coming off the best game of his career, while the Fighting Illini have two running backs with over 300 yards.
Julian Sayin was surgical against Minnesota, missing on only four passing attempts. Carnell Tate had a statement game, Jeremiah Smith continued to show why he is the best receiver in the country, and the running game saw some signs of life out of James Peoples. The Illinois defense isn’t anything special, as they gave up 32 points to USC and 63 to Indiana.
If this game was in November it could be a lot trickier. The Fighting Illini play sound football, they just don’t have nearly as much talent as the Buckeyes do. Unfortunately the Illinois offense is likely to be the first team to reach double figures against Ohio State this year, but they shouldn’t get much more than that.
The Buckeyes pull away in the second half, much like they did a few weeks ago against Washington.
Ohio State 34, Illinois 14
No. 7 Indiana v. No. 3 Oregon (-7.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Indiana certainly put the rest of the country on notice with their demolition of Illinois in primetime. The Hoosiers followed the win up by gritting out a 20-15 victory at Iowa. Now with a week off to prepare for the trip to Eugene. Fernando Mendoza has experience playing at Autzen from his time at Cal, but things didn’t go so well as the Golden Bears lost 63-19 in 2023.
I’m guessing Dan Lanning still hasn’t slept after the thrilling double overtime win at Penn State a couple weeks ago. Indiana is successful when they are causing havoc in the backfield. It’s hard to see Oregon’s offensive line letting the Hoosiers get to Dante Moore on a consistent basis.
The Ducks hand Indiana their first loss of the season, although Curt Cignetti’s team doesn’t get blown out in Eugene.
Oregon 33, Indiana 21
No. 15 Michigan v. USC (-2.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
There’s no question that Michigan is better than they were last year. Bryce Underwood has given the Wolverines stability at the quarterback position despite being a true freshman. The issue with Underwood is consistency, which is understandable considering he isn’t even six games into his college career.
I’m not sure why USC isn’t ranked. The only loss the Trojans suffered was a 34-32 setback on the road against a good Illinois team. Even though there are still questions about the defense, I’m not convinced Michigan can exploit those issues on the road.
The Trojans will have too much offensive firepower for the Wolverines to keep pace with.
USC 31, Michigan 20
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 24 South Florida v. North Texas (-1.5) – Friday 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN2
North Texas 38, South Florida 31
No. 22 Iowa State (-3.5) v. Colorado – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Iowa State 30, Colorado 20
Florida v. No. 5 Texas A&M (-7.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Texas A&M 28, Florida 17
Kansas v. No. 9 Texas Tech (-14.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Texas Tech 45, Kansas 27
South Carolina v. No. 8 LSU (-8.5) – 7:45 p.m. ET – SEC Network
LSU 31, South Carolina 17
No. 18 BYU (-1.5) v. Arizona – 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
BYU 24, Arizona 20
No. 21 Arizona State v. Utah (-5.5) – 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
Utah 27, Arizona State 24
B1G
Rutgers v. Washington (-10.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Washington 37, Rutgers 23
UCLA v. Michigan State (-8.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Michigan State 34, UCLA 27
Northwestern v. Penn State (-22.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Penn State 41, Northwestern 13
Nebraska (-6.5) v. Maryland – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Nebraska 28, Maryland 24
Iowa (-3.5) v. Wisconsin – 7:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Iowa 21, Wisconsin 10
Purdue v. Minnesota (-9.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Minnesota 31, Purdue 24
