The Cubs finally snapped their 10-game losing streak Wednesday night in Pittsburgh and you could almost feel the sigh of relief on the North Side of Chicago. They posted 10 runs against the Pirates while holding the Buccos to just four. Under ordinary circumstances I’d just want to savor this win and not worry about problems that can be dealt with some other day. However, these aren’t ordinary times. The losing skid has the Cubs in third place in the NL Central, 4.5 games behind the Brewers. The Cubs need
to make up ground and the Jameson Taillon home run issue is a bit too big to push to his next start.
All of the runs the Cubs gave up yesterday came on the 18th and 19th home runs Taillon has given up in 2026. Taillon has given up 20 or more home runs in each of the last six seasons. That’s a bit on the high side for season long home runs, but not terribly so. Basically a manageable issue, prior to 2026. You can see some of Taillon’s stats since 2021 below:
The next home run Jameson Taillon gives up in 2026 will be his 20th home run of the season. You read that right. To put this in perspective, in approximately half to a third of the innings he’s pitched this season, Taillon has already given up 19 home runs. He gave up 24 in 129.2 innings last season and just 21 in 165.1 innings the season before.
Given the Cubs current pitching injury situation, this isn’t merely a problem, it’s a potentially unavoidable crisis. The next man up should Taillon be unable to start for any amount of time is probably Javier Assad. The Cubs already tried an alternative starter with Jordan Wicks making his 2026 season debut earlier this week. For reference, here’s the line Wicks put up in that start: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 1 BB 5 K (plus a home run of his own).
To his credit, Taillon has acknowledged the problem. After a rough outing against the White Sox he stated that “at the end of the day homers are thrown, not hit.” His fly-ball heavy, working in the zone profile makes him naturally susceptible to this kind of damage.
Those comments are all well and good, but summer is coming. As the weather heats up Cubs pitchers, including Taillon, should be expected to give up more home runs, not fewer. It’s not exactly a comfortable thought to project out what Taillon’s home run totals could look like if he were to give up home runs at the same rate he’s given them up through March, April and May. It’s a potential catastrophe to imagine what they could look like if that rate gets even worse as the weather improves. Especially given the innings the Cubs need Taillon to cover over the rest of this season.
