Welcome to Week 5! The NFL season is almost at the quarter pole, and the fantasy football regular season will be more than a third of the way done once Week 5 is in the books. That was fast. Unfortunately, the injuries continue to mount, and this week the Byes start. Fielding a decent fantasy lineup is getting harder and harder.
As for the NFL, it’s been a somewhat surprising (and confusing) first month of the season. Figuring out which teams look like playoff squads and which ones are in real trouble
isn’t so easy. Look at the Falcons – they scored 16 points combined in Weeks 1-2 (fewest in the league) and then 80 points combined the last two weeks (most in the league). Only three teams are undefeated after four weeks (KC, SF, MIN), while five teams sit at 0-4 (MIA, TB, LAC, TEN, HOU). That total is tied with 1976 for the most winless teams at the four-week mark. Two of those teams (HOU, LAC) made the playoffs last season.
The Bucs, who in 1976 were an expansion team that finished 0-14 and had the worst point differential in NFL history (-287), have the unique distinction of being on both lists. We’ll get to see them Thursday night, battling the 2-2 Cowboys, who once again have a high-flying offense paired with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Maybe a UDFA rookie QB making his second career start is just what the doctor ordered. If you want to hold your nose and stream the Cowboys’ D/ST this week, have at it.
Stats of the Week:
- Go Big Blue! The Giants are alone in first place in the NFC East for the first time since 2015 (when Eli Manning was their QB).
2. The 4-0 Vikings are last in the NFL in yards and failed to score a touchdown in two of their four games.
3. Kenneth Walker, Jr. has 537 rushing yards on the young season, the most through Week 4 since Arian Foster’s 539 in 2010.
4. The Bears ran 57 more plays than the Jets and had more first downs (34) than the Jets had plays (32).
5. Offensive ineptitude, Part 1: Denver’s first half points on the season: 13, with just one touchdown.
6. Offensive ineptitude, Part 2: The Eagles were 0-for-12 on third down against the Rams and going back to Week 3 they’ve failed to convert their last 17 third downs.
7. LAC@SEA was the first game in NFL history where each team’s first offensive snap resulted in an interception.
OK, Week 5, here we go! Note: The PHI@JAC game is in London – set those lineups early!
Bye Weeks: CAR, KC
Week 5 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Bijan Robinson. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Last week, my Rides, Fades, and Sleepers cooked, thank you very much. Tet McMillan was my Ride of the Week and he finished as the WR1, with over 200 yards and two TDs. Ka-Ching! Emeka Egbuka was my Fade of the Week and he had a whopping two catches for 13 yards. Wham! Hopefully, he wasn’t in your lineup. I guaranteed that Tucker Kraft would score, and he did. I also had misses, of course, but overall it was a solid week. I’ll try to repeat that success. You can check my work here.
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Rides of the Week:
Jacoby Brisssett (vs. DET) and Jared Goff (@ARI). I’m feeling generous at the moment so I’ll give you two QBs, who happen to be facing each other’s decrepit defense this week. There are only a few QBs that I’m starting over either of these guys this week. This game is going to be fun, unless you don’t have anyone playing in it. The Vegas total is 54.5, which is among the highest we’ve seen all season. The Lions have allowed 127 points which is just one point behind the Saints for worst in the league, and the Cardinals are close behind them (117). Play what you can in this one. The QBs should feast. The Lions are allowing the most passing yards and fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, while the Cardinals are again close behind them (fifth most FPPG allowed). Both defenses have already given up 11 TD passes, tied for most in the league.
Fade of the Week:
Jalen Hurts (@JAC). I hate the term “MASH unit”, but I think it applies here. Philly is probably going to be without three opening day starting offensive linemen, its #1 and #2 running backs, its #1 receiver, and its #1 tight end. That’s a lot to overcome, and going back to last season, the offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut to begin with. Do you really want to get up early on Sunday to spend three hours waiting for the Iggles to convert a third down, or get into the red zone? Trust me, it’s misery. Maybe Hurts will run enough to save his day, but he failed to clear 100 passing yards against the Rams and it gets harder this week against an underrated Jaguars’ defense. They’re allowing the sixth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and are tied for the league lead with six picks. Hurts is a great fantasy QB, but not this week. I’m sitting him in my main league. Fire him up again when he gets some weapons back and the schedule gets easier.
Sleeper of the Week:
Jameis Winston (@WAS). I’ll stick with the QB theme and go with the 17th-ranked QB on the board for the week. Last week we got the full Jameis, and I had forgotten how much joy we were missing – three TDs, two picks, four sacks, a heart-stopping finish, and his usual hilarity before and after the game. This week’s road matchup against a division rival is another tasty one where the script might call for a lot of passing, and with J.J. McCarthy on the roster there’s pressure on Jameis to keep producing and winning. Only the Lions are allowing more FPPG to opposing QBs than the Commanders, and they’re another team that’s allowed a league-worst 11 passing TDs. If you need a second QB in a Superflex, or a streamer to replace Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or someone else, Jameis is a fun flier who could easily finish inside the Top-10 QBs. Just take some Pepcid before the game and have your favorite alcohol handy. Lots of it.
Quarterback:
Elite option this week – Josh Allen and Matt Stafford (playing against each other);the analysis starts below them.
I already discussed four QBs in detail, so let’s breeze through this section.
Rides:
Dak Prescott (vs. TB) is humming, and Tampa is falling apart. I like Dak for a solid and productive game on Thursday night, even though it’s not a great matchup and he might not have to throw a ton. I think Dallas will control the game.
Others ranked in the Top-15 this week who I think will outperform their ranking: Jordan Love (vs. CHI), Drake Maye (vs. LV), and Jayden Daniels (vs. NYG, assuming he plays). Daniels is not without risk of re-injury, but it’s a pretty good matchup.
Sleepers:
Aaron Rodgers (@IND) is coming off back-to-back games with at least 290 passing yards and three TD passes. He’s on a heater and is finding his weapons. The Colts are allowing the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs.
If you need a second QB in a Superflex, or a streamer for someone who is hurt or on a Bye, there are some OK options (in addition to Winston and Rodgers), including Tyson Bagent (@GB), Sam Darnold (vs. SF), and if you want to give him one more shot (I get it if you can’t and especially if Justin Jefferson is out again), Kyler Murray (@NO, in what could be a higher scoring game than the Vikings are accustomed to).
Fades:
Justin Herbert (vs. DEN). I have no words. You can’t start him right now, even with Denver’s injuries at corner. In fact, I’m having a hard time recommending anyone on the unplugged Chargers this week.
Tyler Shough (vs. MIN) has been a fantasy revelation, and I don’t doubt that he’ll rack up the pass attempts. This defense scares me. They’ve allowed the fewest passing TDs (three) and FPPG to opposing QBs, and they’re going to blitz the living daylights out of the Saints, who had a lot of trouble with Atlanta’s pressure on Monday night. Shough is not a Top-12 play for me this week.
Joe Burrow (@MIA) sounds great on paper, and he absolutely destroyed the Dolphins in Miami in Week 16 last season (29 fantasy points). I’m sure he’ll be fine against Miami’s generous defense on Sunday, but he’s ranked as the QB4 this week even though he could be without both of his stud starting wideouts. Start him as you normally would, but if Chase and Higgins are both out, temper expectations.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Malik Willis (vs. CIN), Kirk Cousins (@NE), Tyler Huntley (@ATL), and Jalon Daniels (@DAL – the matchup is fantastic but I just can’t trust him).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Kyren Williams (vs. BUF), I’m done doubting you. You are in fact a stud. The Bills are allowing the fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs and importantly, they’ve yielded three receiving TDs to backs, and catching passes is an area where Williams excels.
Waiting for Chase Brown (@MIA) to break out? The wait is over. Miami has yielded the second most FPPG and the most receiving TDs (four) to opposing RBs. Chase scored three TDs (one rushing, two receiving) against the Dolphins in Week 16 last season. He also caught 11 passes last week and with the receivers hurting, he should be busy in the passing game again. Brown was in strong consideration for my Ride of the Week. Giddyup.
Both Aaron Jones, Sr. (@NO) and Quinshon Judkins (@NYJ) haven’t been all that impressive so far this season, but both have fantastic matchups this week. I’d try to get them into lineups. The Jets allowed more than 400 total yards and five TDs to running backs over the past two weeks, and the Saints are allowing the most FPPG to opposing RBs after yielding more than 200 rushing yards and five rushing TDs to Atlanta on Monday night.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think will outperform their rankings are Bhayshul Tuten (vs. PHI), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. LV), and Emanuel Wilson (vs. SF). I think you can start both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai (@GB) this week, against Green Bay’s weak defense. Ben Johnson’s offense figures to remain very run-heavy until Caleb Williams returns.
Sleepers:
Tyler Allgeier (vs. DET) and Brian Robinson, Jr. (vs. BAL) are getting enough run (including goal line work) on offenses that score a lot to warrant consideration as low-end weekly RB2 or Flex plays if you need them. Woody Marks (@TEN) racked up a TD in back-to-back weeks and is getting about half the work in Houston. Keaton Mitchell (vs. DEN) is getting plenty of opportunity including in the passing game.
Fades:
It’s tough to put either David Montgomery (@TEN) or Omarion Hampton in lineups at the moment, but I get it if you’re stuck this week. Both have lost snap share in recent weeks, in large part due to inefficiency and a lack of production.
I’d resist the temptation to start Will Shipley (@JAC). Yes, he’s the presumptive starter now. But the O-line is banged up, the offense is a mess, and this week’s opposing defense has only given up 190 rushing yards to opposing backs through four games (best in the league), and just one total TD to the position. Pass.
Others ranked in the Top-30 or who are typical starts who are fades for me: Braelon Allen (vs. CLE), J.K. Dobbins (@LAC), and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. NYG).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase (if he plays), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London, Nico Collins, and CeeDee Lamb; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Six Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20: Michael Wilson (vs. DET, second most yards and second most FPPG allowed to opposing WRs), Malik Nabers (@WAS, fourth most FPPG allowed to opposing WRs), Christian Watson (vs. CHI, and Green Bay should be very pass-heavy this week), Garrett Wilson (vs. CLE, second most receiving TDs allowed to WRs), Davante Adams (vs. BUF, third most FPPG allowed to opposing WRs), and D.K. Metcalf (vs. IND).
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week — I like these guys as WR2/WR3 or Flex plays this week: Jameson Williams (@ARI), Carnell Tate (vs. HOU, 15 catches on 21 targets the past two weeks), Stefon Diggs (vs. NYG), Josh Downs (vs. PIT), Deebo Samuel, Sr. (@SEA, tough matchup but he’s a must-start right now), and Denzel Boston (@NYJ).
Sleepers:
WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Dontayvion Wicks (@JAC), Malik Washington (vs. CIN), Khalil Shakir (@LAR), Roman Wilson (@IND), and Dohnte Meyers (@MIA).
Fades:
I’m nervous about Zay Flowers (@ATL) this week, with Snoop Huntley likely starting for the Ravens. I wouldn’t bench him, but his weekly ranking of WR7 is too high.
Repeat from last week: I’m sure a big George Pickens (vs. TB) game is coming soon, but will it be this week? I don’t think Dallas is going to need to put up big passing numbers on Thursday night, and CeeDee Lamb is dominating targets. Expect another ho-hum output from Pickens.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who should be starting options this season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Jordan Addison (@NO), Emeka Egbuka (@DAL), Parker Washington (vs. PHI), and Rome Odunze (@GB).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Stick with Sam LaPorta (@ARI), who should probably be listed with the elites. He figures to be a big part of Detroit’s passing attack this week, and Arizona is allowing he third most FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Mike Gesicki (@MIA) is in an absolute smash spot this week, which is why he’s ranked inside the Top-12 TEs for the first time this season. Not only is it a great matchup (second most FPPG allowed to opposing TEs), but with Chase and/or Higgins likely out, he should see a big bump in opportunity against his old team.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I’m high on this week: Isaiah Likely (@WAS, and he saw 12 more targets last week), T.J. Hockenson (@NO), and in the same game, Juwan Johnson (vs. MIN) is an every-week start, regardless of matchup.
Sleepers:
TEs to consider if you’re stuck (ranked outside the Top-14 this week): Hunter Henry (vs. LV), Cade Otton (@DAL), and Pat Freiermuth (@IND).
Fades:
I still can’t start Kyle Pitts, Sr. (vs. BAL). His 3-47-0 line last week felt like a monster game, considering how bad it’s been. I guess it’s good to see him get more involved, but I’d still wait for him to break ten fantasy points before putting him in lineups.
For the second straight week, I’m issuing a Fade call on Dalton Kincaid (@LAR), who not only has a bad matchup (fewest receiving yards (85 in four games) and third fewest FPPG allowed to opposing TEs) but after a fast start he cooled considerably, with just four fantasy points scored across Weeks 3-4.
Another repeat that hit last week: Kenyon Sadiq (vs. CLE). He’s a rookie, and with a few notable exceptions in recent years rookie TEs are very hard to trust week to week. Sadiq figures to be boom/bust all season long, with a lot more bust weeks than spikes. Trying to guess the spike weeks is a tough way to live.
That’s all I’ve got this week. Good luck in Week 5!
***This column appears each Thursday here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants. ***
