You would be hard-pressed to find any Kentucky Wildcats fan who thought the Cats would play in the very first game of this year’s SEC Tournament. The expectations were so high in the Preseason, Mark Pope was beaming with confidence, and the roster oozed with stacked talent.
Unfortunately, a rollercoaster regular season ensued, featuring injuries to key players, drama, and frustrating losses. Despite bouncing back from an 0-2 start in SEC play to win eight of their next nine games, the Cats lost five
of their last seven games in the regular season to enter the SEC Tournament reeling with uncertainty.
But the great thing about March is that it is always welcoming to the surprise teams, upset-minded teams, and those who wear the Cinderella slipper. Kentucky, historically, does not fit the role of these identities. But this year, they may just fit those molds.
Expectations are low coming into the SEC Tournament for the Cats, who are the No. 9 seed. But the path to Friday is there, where they would face No. 1-seeded Florida. Third time around? You never know, and if they win that game, then maybe momentum will just take over.
First, though, the Cats have to get through No. 16-seed LSU. Get through? Shouldn’t this be as close to a forgone conclusion as possible? It should, but if you remember the last time these two teams played way back on January 14th, you would know that this game Wednesday afternoon is anything BUT a cakewalk for Kentucky.
LSU has talent, and they will compete. Despite starting 0-4 in the SEC, LSU has since lost five games by 10 points or less. Saturday, they fell at home to Texas A&M in triple overtime. The Tigers won just three games in the SEC this season, two of those in overtime. But they won’t go away quietly, and they won’t get rolled over easily. This team can score, and they are also good from the free-throw line.
Winning five games in five days is going to be difficult, but you’ve got to start somewhere. That road starts on Wednesday afternoon. One game at a time. Let’s look at LSU players to watch and the keys to Wednesday afternoon’s game.
Players to Watch on LSU
1. No. 3: Max Mackinnon — 6-6, 195 lbs. Sr. Guard; BRISBANE, Australia (Portland Transfer)
Stats: 15.3 pts, 2.6 rebs, 40.8 FG%, 37.8 3-PT FG%, 89% FT, 31.8 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 16 pts, 3 rebs, 3 ast., 37 mins
Mackinnon is LSU’s go-to scorer, in addition to being their leading scorer. He will look to get to the basket while also being able to shoot from three-point range.
After scoring in double figures in 14 straight games, Mackinnon has been up and down over his last six games. In three of those games, he was held below 10 points. He does have games with 27 and 34 points, respectively, but it’s important to note he didn’t play against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Six times Mackinnon has made three or more three-pointers in SEC play, illustrating his ability to shoot from beyond the arc.
Mackinnon will get his points, but he’s not an explosive scorer. Kentucky cannot let him get going on Wednesday afternoon.
2. No. 1: Michael Nwoko — 6-10, 261 lbs. Jr. Forward; TORONTO (Mississippi State Transfer)
Stats: 13.3 pts, 5.7 rebs, 61.2 FG%, 0-3 3-PT FG, 76.2 FT%, 21.4 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 3 pts, 2 rebs, 3 TO, stl, 20 mins
Like Mackinnon, Nwoko has been inconsistent in scoring at times throughout SEC play. He is, though, a really good rebounder who will use his size to his advantage.
Nwoko had two games in SEC play with over 10 rebounds, and he had 13 games shooting over 50 percent from the floor. He’s efficient, taking 10+ shots in just four SEC games.
With Jayden Quaintance still sidelined, Malachi Moreno and Andrija Jelavic will have to match Nwoko’s effort inside on Wednesday afternoon.
3. No. 10: Marquel Sutton — 6-9, 225 lbs. 5th-Year Sr. Forward; TULSA, Okla. (Omaha Transfer)
Stats: 13.2 pts, 7.3 rebs, 45.9 FG%, 29.9 3-PT FG%, 82.4 FT%, 31.1 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 16 pts, 6 rebs, 3-4 3-PT FG, 30 mins
Sutton plays hard, and he’s one of LSU’s best rebounders. He has seven games with 10+ rebounds this season, with six double-doubles.
Sutton has three games with 20+ points in SEC play and seven games with 15+ points. Kentucky will have to match his effort the entire time he’s on the court on Wednesday afternoon.
Last year at Omaha, Sutton was the Summit League Player of the Year in averaging 18.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game.
4. No. 8: Pablo Tamba — 6-7, 206 lbs. Gr. Forward; MALAGA, Spain (UC Davis Transfer)
Stats: 8 pts/gm., 7.4 rebs, 36 stl, 62.1 FG%, 32% 3-PT FG, 61.1 FT%, 28.6 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 10 pts, 4 rebs, 2 ast, 29 mins
Tamba is a beast, and he’s also versatile. He plays really hard on the inside, but he can also step outside and knock down some three-pointers.
Tamba has five games with 10+ rebounds in SEC play with three double-doubles.
5. No. 6: Robert Miller III — 6-10, 230 lbs. So. Forward; HOUSTON
Stats: 6.1 pts, 3.9 rebs, 44 blk, 65.7 FG%, 0-1 3-PT FG, 69.9 FT%, 19.3 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 6 pts, 7 rebs, 2 ast, 2 stl, 23 mins
Miller leads LSU in blocked shots and is another player in LSU’s frontcourt who could cause problems for the Cats. He has eight games with five+ rebounds this season.
Miller isn’t a player who can make an impact in scoring. He has scored in double figures only four times all season, but he is efficient from the floor when he does. He’s only taken 105 shots all season, but he has made 69 of them. Kentucky can’t let him make too much of a dent in the stat sheet.
6. No. 4: Rashad King — 6-6, 217 lbs. Sr. Guard; EVANS, Ga. (Northeastern Transfer)
Stats: 5.7 pts, 2.2 rebs, 39% FG, 29.8 3-PT FG%, 78.6 FT%, 18.7 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 12 pts, 3 rebs, 4 TO, 27 mins
King has taken on a lesser role in his first season at LSU after finishing 17th in the NCAA in minutes per game last season with Northeastern. He was a First-Team All-CAA member with 18.5 points per game and 19.4 in league play.
King has five games in double figures in SEC play and eight games with 20+ minutes played this season.
7. No. 2: Jalen Reece — 6-0, 185 lbs. Fr. Guard; ORLANDO, Fla.
Stats: 5.6 pts, 1.7 rebs, 109 ast.-40 TO, 35.1 FG%, 31.5 3-PT FG%, 73.3 FT%, 23.3 mpg
Jan. 14 vs. Kentucky: 11 pts, 5 rebs, 4 ast, 30 mins
Reece leads the Tigers in assists in his first season with the team, with eight games with five+ assists in SEC play. Over his last five games, Reece has 38 assists.
In addition, Reece has five games with 10+ points in his last six games overall. It’s raised his scoring average by nearly two points per game. Kentucky can’t let him get lost in the shuffle while defending LSU’s bigs and capable scoring guards.
Head Coach: Matt McMahon (4th Season, 60-69; 11th Season Overall, 214-136) — 47 years old
It’s been a rough go for McMahon in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have never finished higher than tied for seventh in the SEC in his four seasons, with back-to-back 3-15 finishes in the SEC.
McMahon had a great seven-year run at Murray State prior to coming to Baton Rouge. The Racers went to three NCAA Tournaments and lost by just one point in the Horizon League Championship Game in 2020. Twice, the Racers advanced to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, including in 2019 with Ja Morant. McMahon served as an assistant coach for four seasons at Murray State before becoming their head coach, helping the Racers reach the 2012 NCAA Tournament.
As a player at Appalachian State, McMahon was part of three SoCon regular-season championship teams and the 2000 team that played in the NCAA Tournament. He played in 117 games and made 135 three-pointers.
Jan. 14 at LSU: Kentucky 75 — LSU 74
This game may have saved the season for the Cats. If they didn’t win this game, after falling behind 18-3 in the first half and 40-22 early in the second half, the entire season may have gone off the rails.
Malachi Moreno’s buzzer-beater was, arguably, the highlight of the season. The full-court pass by Collin Chandler was incredible. Kentucky’s comeback in this game was aided by 8-11 shooting from beyond the arc and outscoring LSU 53-36 in the second half.
Make no mistake, though, it was an ugly first half for the Cats. They shot just 26.7% from the field, including 2-12 from three-point range. The Cats only made one shot in the first 11+ minutes of the game. That’s how bad it was.
Still, though, the Cardiac Cats were out in full force in this game. Hopefully, they won’t have to be in this game.
Keys to the Game
1. Get off to a good start
The last time the Cats played LSU, they fell behind 18-3 and 40-22 in the second half. That can’t happen in a Tournament game. Kentucky must come out firing and put LSU behind big early.
2. Rebounding
LSU can rebound, with just a tick under 37 rebounds per game. The Tigers out-rebounded the Cats 32-29 back on January 14th. Kentucky must win that battle convincingly on Wednesday afternoon.
3. Three-point defense
LSU made five threes in the first half of the game in Baton Rouge, finishing with nine three-pointers. That number needs to be a little lower. If Kam Williams plays, that could help Kentucky defend the three better than they have over the last month.
4. Make your lay-ups
All of Kentucky’s lay-ups and shots at the rim need to be made on Wednesday. They can’t miss the easy shots. Being challenged as they are offensively, the Cats must make it easier on themselves and make their layups and easy shots.
Score Prediction: Wildcats 83, Tigers 73
It’s plain and simple. The Cats cannot lose this game. They shouldn’t. LSU will play hard, but the Cats have the talent to overpower them and finish them off. Kentucky will get this win and advance to Thursday. Got to start somewhere to win five games and five days.
