Last week was expected to be a week where Utah State would easily handle business, and that is exactly what happened. The Aggies took down McNeese State 48-7 and scored 13 points in the first quarter,
21 points in the second quarter, and 14 points in the third quarter. Bryson Barnes completed 19 of his 27 passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns, and Barnes also rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. The leading receiver for the Aggies was Braden Pegan, who had three catches for 95 yards, and William Holmes, who led Utah State with two sacks. Utah State held McNeese State to 7 completions on 23 attempts and 89 passing yards and allowed just 130 total passing yards. The Aggies also held McNeese State to 109 rushing yards, while posting 334 yards themselves. The Aggies had a great game, and now comes the big game against Vanderbilt.
Game Preview: Utah State at Vanderbilt
Date: Saturday, September 27th
Game Time: 12:45 P.M. EST
TV Channel: SEC Network
Line (by DraftKings Sportsbook): Vanderbilt (-22.5)
Series History: This is the first game between the Commodores and the Aggies.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Create explosive plays.
This key to the game might just be one of the most important keys. Vanderbilt is a three-touchdown favorite and has played well this season, and the Commodores have taken down both Virginia Tech and South Carolina on the road. The way that Utah State can stay in this game? Through explosive plays. Bryson Barnes has thrown a very good deep ball this season and has built a strong connection with receiver Bradon Pegan. The Aggies need to use this connection to get their offense moving. Bryson Barnes also has the ability to create big plays on the ground, which could be a big difference maker in this game. If Utah State is able to create big plays, this may also help the Aggies to avoid long third-down conversions.
2. Slow down Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense
Vanderbilt’s offense has been on fire so far this season, averaging 47.5 points per game and gaining 100 first downs on the year. Vanderbilt has converted about 60.5% of their third downs and 258.3 passing yards a game in addition to 223.8 rushing yards per game. Diego Pavia is the leading rusher for Vanderbilt this season, rushing for 215 yards and a touchdown on 39 carries. The second leading rusher for the Commodores this season has been Sedrick Alexander, who has rushed for 210 yards and yards and four touchdowns on 38 carries. Pavia can both run and pass the ball, so Utah State needs to make efficient tackles, and overall, Utah State will need to be disciplined. On defense, this looks like limiting penalties and playing strong coverage.
3. Start efficiently on both sides of the ball
Utah State, as previously emphasized, must move the ball efficiently on offense. The Aggies need to get first downs and run the ball effectively to be able to have success in the deeper passing game; Utah State needs to be efficient on defense as well. Execution is key, and the Aggies must take the lessons learned from Bronco Mendenhall has taught throughout the season. This is easily the biggest game on Utah State’s schedule, and beating an SEC team would be huge for both Utah State and the Mountain West.
Overall Thoughts and Prediction
Utah State has already faced an SEC team this year in their only loss of the season to Texas A&M, 44-22. In that game, Texas A&M scored 20 points in the second quarter as Marcel Reed passed for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Without the big second quarter, Utah State may have been within two scores at halftime. Ultimately, it likely would not have made a difference as Utah State only converted 2 of their 14 third downs and had 11 penalties of 72 yards. If Utah State wants to be competitive in this game against Vanderbilt, the Aggies must do better on third down against a much tougher opponent than the last two they have faced. Utah State must also not dig itself into holes with penalties on offense and defense.
The reality of it is that Utah State really struggled to stop the run against Texas A&M, and it is likely that they will have a similar problem against Vanderbilt. Utah State is able to stay in this game for a while, but the Aggies start to miss tackles and struggle to move the ball offensively. Vanderbilt posts a strong second half to take down the Aggies.
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt: 45; Utah State: 24
