UFC 322 is fun!
Not exactly the most scintillating tagline and the fighters at the top of the marquee aren’t known for their headline-grabbing quotes either, but if we’re strictly talking about in-cage ability, it doesn’t get much better than Jack Della Maddalena, Islam Makhachev, Valentina Shevchenko, and Zhang Weili.
Those are your four stars of UFC 322, each vying for their own slice of history Saturday at Madison Square Garden. “JDM” defends his welterweight title for the first time, looking to jump
start what could be a legendary run at the top if he beats Makhachev, MMA’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter. Makhachev seeks a second title after establishing himself as the king of the lightweights, long regarded as the deepest division in MMA. Becoming a “champ-champ” would undoubtedly bolster Makhachev’s credentials among the all-time greats.
Unlike Della Maddalena, Shevchenko is deep into her championship story, having defended the title seven times in her first reign as flyweight queen and once more in her second reign. In need of a fresh challenge, she finally secured a fight with Zhang, the two-time strawweight champion who stands at No. 1 on the women’s side.
It’s not hyperbole in the slightest to call this the highest level MMA fight between two women ever. They have no weaknesses in their games and one gets the sense that victory will come down to the narrowest of margins.
Can’t wait for this one.
What: UFC 322
Where: Madison Square Garden in New Nork
When: Saturday, Nov. 15. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX, followed by a four-fight preliminary card on ESPNEWS, ESPN+, Disney+, and FX at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Jack Della Maddalena (1, P4P-8) vs. Islam Makhachev (P4P-1)
Jack Della Maddalena might be really good, you guys!
That’s a DUH statement at this point given that “JDM” has won 18 straight including a thrilling title fight against Belal Muhammad, but you don’t have to look at the betting lines to get the feeling Della Maddalena is being overlooked. Sure, Islam Makhachev is also on an absurd hot streak, but Della Maddalena is hardly a layup.
Then again, Makhachev might be the best fighter in the world right now. Makhachev’s wrestling needs no further hyperbole as we all know when he gets his hooks in and takes his opponents down, he’s either guaranteed to bank a round or add to his impressive list of finishes. And this isn’t just a grappler vs. striker matchup. Makhachev’s standup remains underrated, despite twice out-striking the great Alexander Volkanovski (yeah, I said it!).
So how do we pick here? I don’t expect either man to finish early or fade late, which means this will be a back-and-forth war of attrition. It also means whoever manufactures the most significant bursts of offense will win the fight. And I think that’s going to be the defending champion.
Della Maddalena has a tad more pop on the feet and I could see him catching Makhachev a couple of times and either knocking him down or forcing him to retreat to the fence. It’s not much, but it might be enough to sway the judges in what will be an exceedingly close contest. Outside of that, Della Maddalena just has to stuff a few takedowns (easy, right?) and win some scrambles and victory—and immortality—is well within reach.
JDM by decision.
Pick: Della Maddalena
Valentina Shevchenko (1, P4P-2) vs. Zhang Weili (P4P-1)
I can’t decide. You can’t make me.
There is virtually nothing to separate Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili outside of a few inches of height and reach. Strength? Maybe slight edge to Shevchenko. Speed? Maybe slight edge to Zhang. Striking, grappling, wrestling, defense, both women grade as an A-plus in every category. These are the two best female fighters ever and on Saturday, they’ll remind everyone why this has been the fight to make for some time.
Even slightly past their prime, 85 percent of Shevchenko and Zhang is still better than 95 percent of the women to have competed in MMA, so expect both women to show out. Shevchenko will look to establish the range early and test whether she can tie up Zhang and outmuscle her, while Zhang will scout for openings for power punches and work to establish her own wrestling game. The full range of their technical abilities will be on display, so on the surface, there could be plenty of uneventful moments featuring subtle feints and exhausting grappling against the fence.
I’m sticking with Shevchenko to retain, with my main reason being I see Shevchenko as having a knack for winning close rounds that are light on volume. I haven’t seen that from Zhang yet, and a lack of action could lead to frustration. Like the main event, I favor this fight to go the distance and for the winner to have their hand raised in convincing—though not definitive—fashion.
Pick: Shevchenko
Sean Brady (4) vs. Michael Morales (T8)
Sean Brady and Michael Morales should both end up fighting for the welterweight title someday. At UFC 322, though, it will be Brady’s moment.
You won’t find too many bigger Morales stans than me as I’ve had the Ecuadorian pegged as a future champion for a while. And even though I’m picking him to lose tonight, I stand by it. Morales is a high-level athlete, a wicked striker, and he has enough wrestling to keep the fight standing against most of his opposition. Just not Brady. Not yet.
Brady has always been a strong MMA wrestler, which is to say he knows how to practically implement his wrestling in an actual fight. That sounds incredibly obvious, but how many D1 wrestlers or Brazilian jiu-jitsu stars have we seen fail to turn their grappling expertise into effective offense? Too many to count. Brady has that skill down and has worked hard to round out his game over the years. Hey, sounds like a guy who will eventually win a UFC belt!
Morales is dangerous, but I’m not confident he has the experience to stifle Brady’s wrestling attack. So give me Brady by decision or late ground-and-pound finish this time. However, Morales will learn a ton from this loss (just like Brady did after losing to Belal Muhammad) and you can bet it will be a long time before I pick against him again.
Pick: Brady
Leon Edwards (5) vs. Carlos Prates (10)
Is it really over for Leon Edwards?
Back-to-back dispiriting losses to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady emptied the Edwards bandwagon in a hurry (was it ever that packed?), and it’s easy to picture the UFC matchmakers rubbing their hands together at the thought of Carlos Prates beating Edwards and removing that particular headache from the championship picture for them. Harsh, I know, but even when “Rocky” had a belt, he wasn’t exactly Uncle Dana’s favorite.
One thing is for sure and that’s that Prates will take the fight to Edwards. The smoking striker has dreams of KO’ing Edwards and vaulting himself into the middle of the welterweight title conversation, hopefully erasing the memory of his recent loss to Ian Machado Garry. The Fighting Nerds representative is an electrifying fight finisher and if Edwards is truly cooked, Prates will gladly dust off the leftovers.
Inexplicably, I still have confidence in Edwards. His standup is as sharp as ever, so he won’t shy away from a back-and-forth battle with Prates. If anything, the matchmakers might have done Edwards a huge favor by not booking him against yet another wrestler. All he has to do is show up… something he’s failed to do in his past two fights.
*sigh* Edwards by decision. Don’t let me down, Rocky.
Pick: Edwards
Beneil Dariush (8) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (14)
Benoit Saint Denis’ berserker style might be too much for the venerable Beneil Dariush at this stage of his career.
In the battle of Benny vs. Benny, I’m going with French Benny. Whatever wires got crossed in Saint Denis’ disappointing 2024 campaign appear to have been set straight and he is back to his full force, sans juges ways. Perhaps not coincidentally, he’s also back to facing less experienced opposition, which is the one twist here.
Dariush has fought the best of the best at 155 pounds, and even has MMAth on his side having just beaten Renato Moicano, who beat Benoit Saint Denis last year. The 16-year veteran is also capable of bouncing back from adversity, though that’s been a less consistent trait as his fight time piles. I’m curious to see how he deals with Saint Denis’ opening rush, whether he meets Saint Denis blow for blow or focuses on defense in Round 1 to gather data.
The clock is ticking on Dariush and a fight with Saint Denis will only accelerate it. Dariush missing weight also makes me like Saint Denis’ chances more and I have him overwhelming Dariush for an early finish.
Pick: Saint Denis
Preliminaries
Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo Vieira
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov
Erin Blanchfield (4, P4P-9) def. Tracy Cortez (12)
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Ethyn Ewing
Kyle Daukaus def. Gerald Meerschaert
Chepe Mariscal def. Pat Sabatini
Angela Hill (T12) def. Fatima Kline
Baisangur Susurkaev def. Eric McConico
Matheus Camilo def. Viacheslav Borshchev
