The Mets have had a lot of turnover this offseason. Between trades and stars leaving in free agency, the team looks much different than the one that missed the playoffs just a few months ago. There are a few familiar faces left, though, who are hoping to help create and contribute to the next great Mets team.
One of them is young catcher Francisco Alvarez. 2026 will be his fourth season as the Mets’ starting catcher, and in his previous three full seasons he has been inconsistent to say the least.
Some of that could be chalked up toa series of freak hand injuries. But during the second half of last season, he showed a side of himself that looked more like the top prospect that he was in 2022 and less like the inconsistent hitter he had become in 2024 and the first part of 2025.
Over the course of his career, Alvarez has hit .230/.306/.429, hitting 48 home runs and accumulating 143 RBI. He has a 105 wRC+ and 6.7 fWAR over parts of four seasons in the major leagues. He’s also been worth 8 fielding run value, putting him solidly middle of the pack as a defender in that time, 17th out of 38 qualified catchers.
Last season, Alvarez had his best offensive season, hitting .256/.339/.447 with 11 home runs and 32 RBI in 76 games. He had a 124 wRC+ and accumulated 1.8 fWAR. His defense was the worst of his career, however, being worth -6 FRV, putting him in the bottom tier of defensive catchers in the league.
The second half of 2025 was when he really shined. After a month-long trip down to Triple-A, he came back with a vengeance. After the All-Star break, he hit .276/.360/.561, hitting eight of his eleven home runs and driving in 21 of his 32 RBI. In the second half he had a 157 wRC+, better than his season or career mark, and if it were over the course of a full season it would be his best of his career by a wide margin.
Now, Alvarez’s main problem last season—and for most of his major league career—was that he was injury-prone. Over the course of his last two seasons, he has suffered a number of freak injuries. In 2024, he tore a ligament in his left thumb and missed nearly two months. And in 2025 he broke the hamate bone in his left hand and missed the first month of the season before with a compromised UCL in his right thumb for the last month of the season, an injury that eventually needed surgery after the season ended.
For next season, FanGraphs’ OOPSY projections expect Alvarez to have similar stats to his 2025 season. He’s projected to hit .242/.324/.447, with 20 home runs and a 117 wRC+. He’s projected to accumulate 3.0 fWAR, which is equal to his 2023 career best, and it has his defense bouncing back a bit. The defense would not be a surprise, as it’s possible his hamate injury in his catching hand might have impeded his defensive ability.
There are a lot of questions surrounding Francisco Alvarez’s 2026 season and the different possibilities. Will Alvarez be able to keep up his hitting form from the second half of 2025? Will he sustain another freak injury (or two)? Will he return to his defensive form of a couple years ago? If one or two of those go the right way, it could be a big step forward for the former top prospect.
