We made it gang, HOCKEY IS HERE THIS MONTH! I wanted to take some time to look at some more under the radar questions and thoughts. We have thoroughly covered the various bigger picture issues coming into 26-27: gaolie rotation, the defense, the forward group, health.. The dog days of the August off-season tend to see us cover things from every angle possible. So I wanted to check in on a few under the radar important players, the questions surrounding them, and what I hope to see.
What Does a Successful 26-27 Look Like For Cody Glass?
As of this writing,
Glass is basically written in #2 pencil (shout out scantron) as our 3C moving into the season, and I am a HUGE believer that the quality and player type of your 3C dictates a lot of how you deploy your lineup. If they are a defensive specialist, you can match them up against top lines and free up the top 6 to provide offense. See: Jordan Staal. If they have some offensive pop, you can distribute those defensive assignments more evenly like Florida does with Barkov and Lundell, particularly on the road. Chris and I have both been screaming from the rooftops to do the former with Cody so Nico and Timo can have some of the matchup burden lifted. Last season Glass started 534 of his 1165 5v5 shifts as faceoffs, and 32% of those faceoff starts were in the defensive zone, while 15% of his total shifts were (includes on-the-fly). Nico had similar splits, 31% and 18%, so I’d like to see 5+ % of those shifted Glass’s way (about an extra shift every few games). Further, the right dot in the D-zone should be Cody’s property.
I think we all know at this point that Glass had an unsustainable shooting percentage last year, 18.3%, nearly double his career average and 19 on 13.2 expected. In his 3 full-ish seasons he has basically broken even with last season dramatically over (38%) and the season before dramatically under (-40% or 6g on 10.1 expected). His best season in Nashville in 2021-22 he shot right at expected (14g on 15.3 expected) and 10% – which seems like where he should settle in. So I am going to peg his goal total next season in the 10-13 range.
Glass was also our Cy Young winner last year, with a 19g-6a stat line, which should normalize. Assists are obviously linemate dependent, and I do think Gritsyuk will be mostly in the top 6 this year, so between Brown, ERod, Mercer etc. and their collective 35-40 goals he should pick up some more apples. Referencing his best season, he had a 2:3 goals to assist ratio so ideally he’ll settle into 20ish assists.
Last, I’d like to see him get more PK time – similar to his 5v5 deployment above, he can take some of that burden off of Nico who had some pretty rough PK impacts (5% according to hockeystats.com). Glass had a little under 50 minutes compared to Nico’s 150 minutes – again if the D-zone PK faceoff is in the right dot, it should be Cody’s faceoff.
Who is the 4C?
Similar to Glass, I assume for now Bjugstad is penciled in as the 4C. That being said, the way Mehta talks about Lombardi as “more than depth” and “there is some upside there,” I am not so sure. Bjugstad wasn’t exactly lighting the league on fire in his Devils tenure with 2 assists and 46% in the dot over 26 games. He also got speedbagged in his minutes to the tune of a 40% xGF and 35% goal share – both were the 3rd worse marks among Devils forwards with 200 minutes at 5v5 (ahead of only Lammikko and Glendening). That would also put all three of them in the bottom 10 of 468 forwards that played 200 minutes at 5v5. Dat’s bad. (Sidenote – I had a Fitz hateblog half written about just how bad our depth was, but it’s too late for that, we’re moving forward).
The threat to Bjugstad’s role? Amadeus Lombardi. After a successful OHL career where he set the franchise record for points for the Flint Firebirds, Lombardi moved up to the AHL for the Grand Rapids Griffins where he put up 26 points in his rookie campaign. Where he really took of was the two year span after that where he was sixth in the AHL in primary points/60 among all forwards with at least 70 games played. According to AHL Tracker for gamescore, he was also in the top 10% of all players over that two year span.
If you go look through the comments on the Red Wings postabout the trade you will see some VERY unhappy Wings fans upset he never got a call up. Then they “fired” Yzerman. Couple all of that with the fact that he would have to clear waivers, the tea leaves tell me he is going to have a shot at a bottom 6 center role. I say bottom 6, and not to contradict myself, but he could potentially be a 3C with some offensive juice bumping Glass down and Bjugstad out. A lot of that depends on how he does in camp and if this bet on his upside works. Regardless of where he is, once again we have depth and optionality down the lineup. oh and PS, his highlight reel from 2024-25 is gross, he can fly, has disgusting hands, and a great motor. That last part is important because it aligns with a forward archetype that it seems Sunny prefers with ERod, Boqvist, Command, and Lombardi all noted for the motor. (EDIT: and Evangelista!)
There is a world where Lombardi is a 3 or 4C, Glass is a 3 or 4C, and Bjugstad is in the press box. There is also a world in which Glass is the 3C and Bjugstad is the 4C and Lombardi starts in the AHL, or even further, there is a world where Lombardi bumps tot he wing and Erod settles in at one of these center roles. Coaches tend to be hesitant about giving younger players minutes, so Lobardi has to earn it, but his track record, tape, and Bjugstad’s play last season have me believing we will be seeing a lot of him. It’s truly remarkable how we suddenly have all this optionality up the middle, I love it.
Who is Declan Chisholm and Should We Care?
The other bet Sunny made with a 4th rounder was on Declan Chisholm. I’m not necessarily the only one to point this out, but similar to how Sunny talked about Lombardi, he talks about Chisholm more, indicating he tried to trade for him 3 times. In response to a question about puck moving defensemen in his Chiclets interview he had glowing things to say: “don’t sleep on Declan Chisholm.”
He is another guy that has a very good underlying profile, skates well and is well rounded – reminds me of the bet Florida took on Gustav Forsling off of waivers. He also helps fill a void of things the Devils were bad at – retrievals and in-zone defense. He’s in the 66th percentile in breakouts, 79th percentile in transition defense, 73rd for in-zone shot suppression and 68th in checking. Offensively he is a plus in transitional offense (66th), passing (53rd), and chance generation (52nd) from L-B Hockey and All Three Zones.
All that being said, he has only played 125 games against lower competition. Is he only good in limited minutes? or is he someone primed for a breakout? The Caps are a VERY smart team, so why were they good with giving him up? As of now he is the #4 LD and #7 overall, so is he going to push guys in camp, or is he designed to be the 3rd pair LD? A lot of that is up to Keefe, but again, like everything Sunny has done so far, he adds depth, transition skill and makes us better.
Your Thoughts
I wrote most of this before the Evangelista trade which adds another middle six/top nine forward to our already deep group. He is a wing, so doesn’t necessarily affect the center questions I have above, but we certainly have too many forwards at the moment and based on how Bjugstad played last season, is he on the way out? Or are we just “creating competition” in camp and it will sort itself out. I honestly don’t mind either scenario.
Let me know in the comments!
Also reminder to check out our Uncle Puckers podcast. We have been recording all summer and will do our best to crank out 2-3 episodes a week during the season. IT IS NOT FOR KIDS, rated R and sometimes worse.
We can be found where ever you get your podcasts, or on youtube!
LGD
