The 2024 Royals were a bit lucky. I mean sure, we all argued at various times that they were a bit unlucky, but they were also a bit lucky. You would have expected them to have a higher win total given their run differential, unlucky, but you’d have expected them to score fewer runs based on how well they hit, lucky.
Their biggest source of luck, which is something many of us talked about all offseason, was how incredibly healthy their starting rotation was. They went into the season with five guys
they could rely on to make starts at the Major League level. All of them pitched at least as well as they were expected to, and only two of them spent any time on the IL, both for less than a month each. They were also a bit lucky to be able to add Michael Lorenzen at the trade deadline for a reliever we were all excited about, but who, it turns out, isn’t actually very good in Walter Pennington. And Lorenzen was able to keep things rolling when Alec Marsh wore down as the season went on.
The 2025 Royals weren’t that lucky. What I need to be clear about, however, is that they didn’t have bad luck. They just didn’t experience as much good luck. The Royals have, as of this moment, used 13 pitchers as starters or openers this year. Among playoff teams, only the Mariners and Yankees have used fewer. And one of the reasons the Yankees have used fewer is because their presumptive ace, Gerrit Cole, has missed the entire season after suffering an elbow injury.
In fact, among playoff teams, the median number of starters used is 13. It is extremely normal for a team to have used 13 pitchers as starters. And, by at least one other, the Royals are still among the luckiest teams when it comes to starting pitchers because only one of the playoff teams – the Chicago Cubs – has managed to have five starters pitch at least 100 innings this season, something the Royals have had because Noah Cameron successfully shouldered much of the load that Cole Ragans dropped when he injured himself.
Based on that, it seems pretty safe to say that if the Royals had been as lucky this year as they were last year, they would easily have been a playoff team again. August stands as the month where the Royals both scored and allowed the most runs of any month this season. If they had had healthy versions of Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, and Seth Lugo in their rotation instead of multiple bullpen games and Bailey Falter, it seems obvious they would have done better than go 16-12 in that month.
But the Royals weren’t that lucky; they weren’t unlucky, but given how poor their offense has been, they needed better pitching to cover that hole. Perhaps, ultimately, this can be a good thing. The Royals were able to ignore how badly they needed to make changes on the offensive side last year because the pitching was so good. This led them to leave the hitting coaching staff unchanged and to only add Jonathan India to an offense that desperately needed far more. Now that they have been exposed as a team that can’t win without exceptional injury luck in the rotation or a better offense, hopefully the Royals will figure out stronger offensive solutions for next season.
The good news is that they will enter next season with even more Starting Pitcher depth than they started this season with. Barring any trades or surprise injury news, they will have:
- Cole Ragans
- Seth Lugo
- Michael Wacha
- Noah Cameron
- Kris Bubic
- Ryan Bergert
- Stephen Kolek
- Alec Marsh
All, at this point, are proven big league starters when healthy. That means at least two guys who at least 28 other teams would find room for in their rotation will start the year in the Royals’ bullpen or minor leagues. And that doesn’t begin to account for other minor leaguers who might be ready during the season, such as Ben Kudrna.
The Royals are now prepared for less good luck on the pitching side. All they have to do this offseason is work on setting up their offense for greater success. How hard can that be?
