Who: Phoenix Suns (15-13) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (19-8)
When: 7:00pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Suns+, Arizona Family Sports, Arizona Family 3TV
Listen: KMVP 98.7,
KSUN
Does anyone else have Laker fatigue, or is that only me? Maybe it is personal. I have spent the last couple of weeks battling it out on the great grass plains of Naboo, also known as Twitter, going back and forth with a fan base that felt oddly insecure after their most recent win over the Suns a little more than a week ago. It reached the inevitable point where the argument ran out of oxygen and they went straight to the emergency button: championships. That is usually the tell.
So maybe it is me. Or maybe we are all a little tired.
But here we are again, for the third time in three weeks, the Suns are playing the Lakers.
What is interesting about the Lakers is how much they feel like a paper tiger. At 19-8, sitting fourth in the Western Conference, you would expect some dominant trait to jump off the page. Something that makes you pause. When I prep for the Suns JAM Session Podcast, I build out the attribute meters. Three point shooting. Pace. Defensive rating. Dunks. Each bar represents one tenth of the league, so if you are near the bottom in a category, you barely register. It is a simple visual, but it tells the truth quickly.
When I dropped the Lakers into that exercise, the result surprised me. They do not shoot the three well. They do not play fast. They are not a strong defensive team either. There is no overwhelming strength holding it all together.
The Phoenix Suns are not elite across the board in those areas, but they are also a seventh seed sitting at 15-13. A team living in the middle while figuring itself out. That is the point. The Los Angeles Lakers are more vulnerable than the national conversation would have you believe.
We are about to see that tested tonight at the Mortgage Matchup Center.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Grayson Allen – DOUBTFUL (Right Knee Injury Management)
- Jalen Green – OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Jordan Goodwin – AVAILABLE (Jaw Sprain)
Lakers
- Luka Doncic — OUT (Lower Left Leg Contusion)
- Rui Hachimura — OUT (Right Groin Strain)
- Austin Reaves — QUESTIONABLE (Left Calf Strain)
- Gabe Vincent — OUT (Lumbar Back Strain)
What to Watch For
Would it be petty to point at the officiating? Maybe. It is also fair. The Los Angeles Lakers tend to get a whistle that feels foreign in Phoenix. Los Angeles is tied for the league lead with 28.9 free attempts per game. Fun fact: the last time the Suns averaged 28.9 free throw attempts per more in a season? 1995-96, when the team averaged 30.1.
The last time these teams met, the Lakers lived at the line, and that is an effective way to beat the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix plays aggressive. They poke. They prod. That is part of their identity. Asking them to dial that back is asking them to stop being the irritant they have become.
Against the Lakers, the margin is discipline. When Los Angeles is shooting free throws, it neutralizes one of Phoenix’s real strengths, which is getting out in transition and letting young legs create easy points. So yes, eyes will be on how this one is called by Mark Lindsay, Mousa Dagher, and Jenna Reneau tonight. The rule always applies: do not put the game in the officials’ hands.
Oh, and watch to see if the Suns can grab some rebounds again. It has been since the November 28 matchup against the Thunder since the Suns actually managed to win the battle on the boards. That is eight straight games of being bullied on the glass. The total deficit? A staggering 66 rebounds.
Key to a Suns Win
Beyond surviving the whistle, Phoenix has to cash in from three point range. Over the last ten games, the Suns are shooting 32.6% from deep. That number is not good. And the looks have been there. It is not as if the competition is forcing Phoenix into bad three point attempts or rushing them into misses. These are clean looks.
Out of 374 three point attempts in that span, 205 have been wide open, which is 55%. They are hitting 32.7% of those shots. If those start falling, the math shifts quickly.
Shots that were falling earlier in the season are not going down right now. You can wonder if some of that is fatigue, guys playing above their expected role for long stretches and carrying a heavier load than planned. That feels plausible. It also does not help that the Suns may again be without one of their true snipers, with Grayson Allen listed as doubtful and potentially missing his 11th game of the season.
The opportunities will be there. The Lakers allow teams to shoot from deep. Opponents are hitting 38.5% from three against them, the second-highest mark in the league, and they also give up the eighth most attempts. If the Suns can find their range, this is a game they should be able to take.
Prediction
I’m feeling good about this one. Yes, the news on Jalen Green was unfortunate. It means that his injury was much more severe than we initially anticipated, and him being out 4 to 6 weeks already said it was a severe injury.
But the Lakers are a team that the Suns can beat. They didn’t have any issues with them in the preseason. They handled them pretty convincingly in the game in which Devin Booker left in the first quarter with an injury, and it came down to poor officiating and an untimely foul by Devin Booker on LeBron James at the end of their last game.
Phoenix is the type of team the Lakers don’t want to see. Because they hustle. Because they have youth. Because they have grit. These are Laker killers, and that’s what the Suns will do tonight.
Suns 122, Lakers 109
