On Aug. 15, the Cubs lost to the Pirates 3-2 and stood at 68-53. They trailed the Brewers by nine games.
Since then, the Cubs are 15-10, which is… pretty good! That’s a .600 winning percentage over 25 games. If they can maintain that over the final 16 games of the season, they should go 10-6. That would make a 93-win season which is… pretty good! It also would likely be enough to be the first wild-card team and host a wild-card series at Wrigley Field beginning Tuesday, Sept. 30.
The Cubs also trail
the Brewers by 5.5 games with 16 left — Milwaukee has 15 remaining. The teams don’t play each other again. Winning the division thus is unlikely but not impossible, and remember the Cubs have the tiebreaker. The Brewers have had a weird season. On July 5 they lost to the Marlins and were 49-40, trailing the Cubs by four games in the division. Then they won 11 in a row, had a 4-4 stretch, then won 14 straight. Since their 14-game winning streak ended, they’re 11-14. So: 49-40, then 29-4, then 11-14. Which is the real Brewers?
Here are the remaining schedules for all the wild-card contenders, as well as the Brewers. All the teams have 16 games remaining, except the Brewers, who have 15 left. Home games in boldface.
Cubs (9 home, 7 road)
Rays (3), at Pirates (3), at Reds (4), Mets (3), Cardinals (3)
The Cubs face just one more team that’s currently over .500, the Mets — and the Mets are in free-fall, having lost five in a row and six of nine. Per Tankathon, the Cubs’ remaining schedule is eighth-easiest.
The Cubs are 44-28 in home games this year (44-26 at Wrigley with the other two “home” losses coming in Tokyo). The Cubs last won 50 home games in 2019, when they were 51-30 at Wrigley. Doing that again would be very, very helpful.
Padres (10 home, 6 road)
Rockies (4), at Mets (3), at White Sox (3), Brewers (3), Diamondbacks (3)
The Padres’ remaining schedule ranks as easiest per Tankathon, largely due to seven of their remaining 16 being against the Rockies and White Sox. San Diego has played much better at Petco Park (44-27) than on the road (35-40), so they’ll hope to load up wins at home to clinch a postseason spot. They stand four games behind the Cubs for the top wild-card spot and three behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. The Dodgers hold the divisional tiebreaker.
Mets (9 home, 7 road)
at Phillies (1), Rangers (3), Padres (3), Nationals (3), at Cubs (3), at Marlins (3)
Like the Padres, the Mets are a much better team at home (45-27) than on the road (31-43), and they have shown that this week, losing the first three of a four-game set at Philadelphia, with the final game of that series this evening. That also perhaps bodes well for the Cubs, who host the Mets in the season’s final week.
Reds (7 home, 9 road)
at Athletics (3), at Cardinals (3), Cubs (4), Pirates (3), at Brewers (3)
The Reds also have a losing record on the road (34-38), though they just took two of three from the Padres in San Diego. (That wound up helping the Cubs, so thanks Reds!) The Reds show up as the eighth-toughest remaining schedule per Tankathon, largely because of the series vs. the Cubs and Brewers. They face the A’s this weekend at Sacramento, and the A’s have been much worse at home (30-42) than on the road (37-38). The Reds trail the Mets by just two games in the wild-card race and own the tiebreaker.
Giants (9 home, 7 road)
Dodgers (3), at Diamondbacks (3), at Dodgers (4), Cardinals (3), Rockies (3)
This is the team I’d be most worried about facing in the postseason. They are kind of the anti-Brewers record-wise. On June 13 they defeated the Dodgers and were tied for first place in the NL West with a 41-29 record. Then they had a really poor stretch for more than two months, going 20-39, ending with a loss to the Brewers Aug. 22.
Since then the Giants are 13-4, tied with the Rangers for the best record in baseball, including (as you know) a sweep of the Cubs. Their seven games remaining against the Dodgers likely will decide their fate. They’re 2-4 vs. their arch-rivals from L.A. so far this year. They’re tied with the Reds, also just two games behind the Mets for the last wild card, though the Mets hold the tiebreaker.
Those are the teams left in wild-card contention in the National League (not including the D-backs, who trail the Giants and Reds by 1.5 games, and the Cardinals, who are a game behind Arizona). Here’s what’s left for the Brewers.
Brewers (9 home, 6 road)
Cardinals (3), Angels (3), at Cardinals (3), at Padres (3), Reds (3)
The Cardinals could help the Cubs by winning some of those six games. Or, if the Brewers wind up clinching the division title before they play the Padres, they could help the Cubs out by winning those games. The Brewers have a good road record (43-32), though since the beginning of the series vs. the Cubs at Wrigley last month, they’re just 7-7 on the road and just got swept by the Rangers in Texas.
