Overall, it has been a disappointing year for most of the players the Nationals selected in the 2024 draft. First round pick Seaver King’s struggles have been well documented thanks to the big names selected after him. However, I want to talk about the Nats second round pick, Luke Dickerson today.
Dickerson was not your average second round pick. He was actually the most expensive second rounder of all time, taking a $3.8 million signing bonus. The Nats built their draft strategy around spending big
on Dickerson in the second round to buy him out of his UVA commitment. Seaver King was selected with an under slot deal so the Nationals could afford Dickerson. In a lot of ways, he was the real prize of the draft class. However, Dickerson did not have a great first season in pro ball.
It actually started very well though. He was quite good in the FCL, hitting .273 with a .794 OPS in 22 at bats. After just six games on the complex, the Nats had seen enough and thought he was ready for Low-A. Dickerson actually started off very well. Scouts were taking notice and people such as Keith Law and Kiley McDaniel had him as a top 100 prospect.
McDaniel even compared his offensive game to Wyatt Langford due to his hard contact and strong approach. Dickerson looked like a new shining star in the Nats system. The organization was feeling vindicated in their decision to give him a ton of money.
However, things began to go off the rails for him. Some of this can be attributed to a mid-season hand injury, but he really struggled. For the season, Dickerson hit .204 with a .628 OPS in Low-A. Obviously those numbers are massively disappointing for a guy with so much hype.
Understandably, the buzz has died down and Dickerson is not on any top 100 lists these days. Having turned 20 in early August, Dickerson is also an older guy for his high school class. This turns the heat up even more.
However, there are some explanations for his struggles. Obviously the injury impacted him. He only missed a few games, but he was not right for a while after that. Dickerson was also a two sport athlete in high school, playing hockey at a pretty high level. That meant that he did not dedicate as much time to baseball as other high level prospects. It makes sense that he is a bit raw.
However, given the Nationals developmental track record, did it really make sense to go all in on a high schooler who is old for the class and has less reps than his peers. The Nats already have pretty big player development issues and with Seaver King and Dickerson, they drafted two pretty big projects.
However, there were some things to like with Dickerson that gave me hope. While the home run power did not show up a ton, only hitting 5 homers in Low-A, we saw some glimpses of it. His tools still give him a very high ceiling.
Drafted as a shortstop, it does not look like he will stay at the position long term. That was always going to be a long shot, but with how many young shortstops the Nats have, he will be playing a lot of second base moving forward. When guys like Angel Feliz and Eli Willits showed up, he played a lot of second base. With a weaker arm, he is better suited for that position.
When you look at the underlying numbers, they really aren’t that bad. He struck out 25% of the time, which is high, but not untenable. Unlike a lot of Nats prospects, his plate discipline is strong. At the Low-A level, he walked 12.3% of the time, which is very solid. If he can start to raise the average or power, that plate discipline should raise his floor.
Dickerson did not hit the ball on the ground at a crazy clip either, with a 40.2 GB% in Low-A. One big problem he has right now is that he hits too many pop ups. Hopefully that is something that can be corrected this offseason. Those pop ups were why his BABIP was just .269.
I am not ready to give up on Luke Dickerson just yet. He still has big time talent, but he needs to be better next season. It will be interesting to see where he is assigned next season. He was far from dominant in Low-A, but he may have to start in High-A due to a glut of middle infielders. Dickerson, Eli Willits, Angel Feliz and Coy James will all need to play and this might force the Nats to start Dickerson in High-A.
Despite my faith in him, he needs to perform next season. The Nats built their 2024 class around him. With Seaver King’s struggles, Dickerson is going to have to step up. He has the talent, but eventually we will need to see some proof of concept.
