In the next seven days, the UFC light heavyweight division could have a new No. 1 contender.
And not necessarily Jiri Prochazka or Khalil Rountree.
Tonight’s UFC Perth main event sees a pair of dark horse
contenders potentially charge to the front of the pack when the white hot Carlos Ulberg takes on a resurgent Dominick Reyes. Just a couple of years ago neither man was close to the championship discussion, but now they’re just one win away from grasping at gold.
Ulberg’s path has been more straightforward outside of a slight stumble to start his UFC career. The charismatic City Kickboxing product was stopped by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his debut and then scored an uninspiring win over Fabio Cherant, but he’s continued to roll with a division-best eight-straight wins, including victories over former champion Jan Blachowicz and one-time title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. He’s yet to put on a performance that cements him as the next man up, but as long as he keeps winning, the rest will take care of itself.
As for Reyes, he’s two wins away from authoring a comeback story for the ages. The legend of his near-win over Jon Jones has been repeated ad nauseum, but for good reason: He really was that close to beating Jones and his ensuing downfall has only made that inflection point more pronounced. Three straight knockout losses followed what should have been Reyes’s moment and then there was the health scare that had him literally wondering every day if he’d see the sun rise.
However, three more knockouts followed, this time going Reyes’s way, and if he can stifle Ulberg, we could realistically see Reyes fight for the title again in 2026. Imagine that.
What: UFC Perth
Where: RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
When: Saturday, Sept. 27. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Carlos Ulberg (4) vs. Dominick Reyes (T9)
Shall we dance?
In Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes, we have two physically similar specimens blessed with great height and reach and, perhaps most importantly, athleticism that’s a notch above your average 205er. It’s one reason they’ve both had so much success and why they’re capable of landing a one-touch KO punch at any moment.
The big-game experience edge has to go to Reyes, who spent much of his UFC career facing ranked competition and once almost beat some guy named Jones. You might have heard about it. Even if you view Reyes as being slightly past his prime, he’s maintained much of the agility and poise that once made him a contender (and could again!).
With Ulberg, everything starts with his left hand, whether it’s poking at his opponent with daringly long jabs, or loading it up for a counter hook. There’s nothing fancy about Ulberg’s game, but it’s damn effective when he’s able to set traps for his opponents and land with power. The question is whether he can convince Reyes to play his game.
Reyes has been such a wonderful comeback story and he’s genuinely climbed back to the point where if he were to beat Ulberg and earn a title shot, few could complain (though that says more about the state of the light heavyweight division than Reyes, probably). But I think his willingness take risks and push the action might actually work against him here, because it’s that kind of strategy against which Ulberg has had the most success finding finishes.
I’m picking Ulberg to win by knockout against a live underdog.
Pick: Ulberg
Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan
The good news for Ivan Erslan is he gets a chance to wash away that awful Navajo Stirling loss from UFC 315. The bad news is he’s being positioned as a sacrificial lamb for Australia’s Jimmy Crute in the penultimate bout (don’t you dare call this a co-main event) of the evening.
Listen, Crute isn’t exactly a world-beater himself with just one win since 2020, but he’s always had the talent and the finishing instincts to make his mark in the light heavyweight division. If he can’t reach peak form with a packed RAC Arena rallying behind him, that should permanently lower future expectations for the 29-year-old.
Can Erslan be the reason he slips up? Nah. Erslan has more than enough striking prowess to put a scare in Crute until the “The Brute” figures out whether it’s best to challenge Erslan in the standup or wrestle him to the mat. He’ll lean towards his grappling, only throwing heavy leather on the feet when he’s conditioned Erslan to fear his takedowns.
Crute submits Erslan and brings the crowd to life just in time for the main event.
Pick: Crute
Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras
Ladies and gentlemen, this is your featherweight banger of the evening (well, catchweight… get it together, Ramon Taveras! How did you come in heavy at 145 pounds???).
Jack Jenkins is exactly the kind of standup fighter you put on cards like this to make sure the fans go home happy. The Australian striker is an effective technical boxer who loves to mix it up inside and wear the opposition down with repeated rib-roasters. He’ll have a fun time mixing it up with Taveras, a willing striker focused more on timing power shots than attacking with volume.
Aside from his persistent weight-cutting issues, Taveras’s other big weakness is his love of brawling, which, again, great for the fans, but not great when you’re dealing with a puncher as potent as Jenkins. This one will be fun while it lasts, with Jenkins either putting Taveras down with strikes or early or coming out on a decision after a Fight of the Night-level scrap.
Pick: Jenkins
Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
Check out these numbers on Neil Magny:
- Most UFC welterweight appearances (35)
- Most UFC welterweight wins (23)
- Tied for 2nd-most wins in UFC history with Andrei Arlovski, Donald Cerrone, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira (the pack trailing only the immortal Jim Miller currently at 27)
- Must UFC decision wins (14… yay?)
- Currently unranked, but a top 15 staple for the majority of his 12-year UFC career
All that got us pondering on the preview show: Is Magny a UFC Hall of Famer? Cerrone is in and if you feel Miller is a lock just based on his longevity stats, then surely Magny deserves similar consideration. Cerrone’s résumé was boosted by title fights in UFC and WEC, while Miller being No. 1 in appearances and wins is his claim to fame. Magny falls just short of their achievements, but perhaps stands tall enough to someday make the cut especially if he can rack up a few more wins before he hangs up the gloves.
Anyway, he’s fighting Jake Matthews, a veteran with 22 UFC fights (nothing to sneeze at) that we’ve watched grow up inside the octagon. This is one of those matchups you’re kind of shocked hasn’t been booked before.
Magny took advantage of age-appropriate matchmaking last time out, putting away fellow lifer Elizeu Zaleski late in the second round. He has to figure out how to overcome an athleticism gap Saturday and should expect Matthews to favor his wrestling over his striking. I expect this to play out like many of Magny’s fights, in which he falls behind on the scorecards before surging in the second half of the fight. Only Matthews won’t fade, instead finishing strong and putting Magny’s Hall of Fame campaign on hold for now.
Pick: Matthews
Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell
Tom Nolan has a wonderfully aggressive style and he takes advantage of his lanky frame well, poking away from range and aggressively searching for submissions when he locks on to his opponents. He keeps a good pace, which helps to separate him from the middle of the pack at welterweight as his skills continue to grow. There’s big things ahead for Nolan, a Contender Series signing that our own Jed Meshew ranked as the best prospect from Season 7.
On the other side, Charle Campbell employs a steady diet of kicks to control the opposition, and he’ll match Nolan takedown for takedown if this becomes a wrestling contest. The name of the game will be distance control and if Campell can lure Nolan into boxing range, he could turn the standup battle in his favor.
Nolan’s physical tools give him the edge by a hair and I’ll be surprised if this doesn’t go the distance. I have Nolan winning this matchup of a pair of lightweights that should be mainstays on the UFC roster for at least the next five years.
Pick: Nolan
Navajo Stirling def. Rodolfo Bellato
Andre Petroski def. Cameron Rowston
Rolando Bedoya def. Jamie Mullarkey
Colby Thicknesse def. Josias Musasa
Luana Carolina def. Michelle Montague
Brando Pericic def. Elisha Ellison
Loma Lookboonmee (14) def. Alexia Thainara
