The Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) will look to re-take the Little Brown Jug for the first time since 2014 when they welcome the Michigan Wolverines (3-1) to Huntington Bank Stadium at 11 a.m. on Saturday, Oct. 3.
Can they score on offense?
Even with second-year quarterback Bryce Underwood (and his estimated $3 million salary) back under the center, the Wolverines’ offense has not been a well-oiled machine. What is most troubling for Michigan is that Underwood has been part of the problem.
The knock against Underwood through
the first 17 games of his collegiate career is that he is a better runner than passer. This season, he is only completing 62 percent of his passes, and the Wolverines rank 104th nationally in passing offense (averaging 200.8 passing yards per game). His accuracy is inconsistent from one play to the next, and he has struggled at times to make the right read. Offensive coordinator Jason Beck has found some success by getting Underwood into a rhythm with simple throws, and by moving the pocket to keep his mechanics from breaking down under pressure.
Utah transfer J.J. Buchanan has given Underwood a legit big-play threat in the passing game, as the second-year wide receiver leads the team with 20 receptions for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Sophomore Andrew Marsh has also emerged as a reliable target in the Wolverines’ last two games.
Even with Underwood’s athleticism, Michigan has struggled to gain traction on the ground. The Wolverines are averaging 149 rushing yards per game, which ranks 89th nationally. Underwood, who has only been sacked five times in four games, has rushed 47 times for 192 yards, good for 4.1 yards per carry. Michigan has split carries between third-year running back Jordan Marshall and true freshman Savion Hiter, but neither has shown that they can be the bellcow.
The offensive line was unimpressive in the non-conference slate, and the absence of right tackle Andrew Sprague the last two games due to injury has led to some shuffling that has done them no favors.
Please tell me the Gophers will be able to score
The Wolverines rank 18th nationally in run defense (86.8 rushing yards allowed per game), 10th in pass defense (149.5 passing yards allowed per game), and 23rd in scoring defense (14.7 points allowed per game).
This is a very tough defense and it starts up front with a formidable defensive line led by disruptive defensive ends John Henry Daley and Dom Nichols, who have combined for 31 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and five sacks this season. The linebackers follow their lead and have been critical in stopping the run, with senior linebacker Troy Bowles contributing a team-leading 31 total tackles. If Michigan’s linebackers have a weaknesses, it’s in pass coverage, particularly against receiving tight ends.
The Wolverines are loaded with experience in the secondary. Senior cornerback Jyaire Hill leads all defensive backs with 22 total tackles and is the only member of their secondary to record an interception this season. Utah transfer cornerback Smith Snowden and fifth-year senior Zeke Berry are tied for the team lead in pass break-ups with two a piece. Michigan loves to play man coverage, so the Minnesota wide receivers will be challenged to win one-on-one matchups on Sautrday.
Stating the obvious, but first and second down are going to be critical for the Gophers in this game. You have to stay on schedule against this Wolverine defense, otherwise you’re going to find yourself in third and long and their edge rushers are going to be pinning their ears back.
But who will score more points on Saturday?
The Gophers need to play a clean game. Penalties have been the Achilles’ heel of the Wolverines through the first four games of the Kyle Whittingham era, as Michigan currently ranks 109th in the country in penalties per game. But this game will ultimately be decided in the trenches. Can the the Gophers’ defensive line sustain the level of play we saw against Washington? Can the Minnesota offensive line help take pressure off of quarterback Drake Lindsey by opening up enough running lanes to keep the defense honest? I have more confidence in the former than I do the latter. I think the defense keeps the Gophers in the game, but the offense fails to capitalize. Michigan 20, Minnesota 10.
