The NFL is always an interesting story that evolves over time. Coming into the season, this was one of those matchups where the Texans could measure themselves against an elite NFL team. Now, there are
two 1-3 football teams desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive. A 1-4 record doesn’t completely eliminate either team from playoff contention, but you would be hard pressed to feel good about their chances. So, it becomes a must win for both teams. Nikhil Mehta of Baltimore Beatdown joins Battle Red Blog for five questions about the home team this Sunday.
Battle Red Blog: Expectations for the Ravens (like the Texans) were high coming into the season. What are the biggest reasons for the Ravens coming up short so far?
Nikhil Mehta: Injuries seem like the obvious answer for Baltimore’s disastrous start to the season, but the truth is that the team had clear cracks from the first game against the Bills before the injury list grew to such a preposterous length.
The defense has been by far the biggest issue for the Ravens, as the unit has allowed the most points in the NFL and second-most yards through four games. Losing Nnamdi Madubuike just two games into the season was a massive blow, but Baltimore has invested too much into that side of the ball for the defense to unravel at this degree. Key players such as cornerback Marlon Humphrey and inside linebacker Roquan Smith have struggled heavily this season. The pass rush appears non existent, even when sending blitzes and having the numbers advantage. Now that injuries have completely ravaged the defense, I am not sure how the unit can turn things around quickly enough to avoid a lost season.
Offensively, untimely turnovers and a failure to extend drives and grind out the clock have been an issue to this point. Derrick Henry inexplicably fumbled three times in the first three games, with two coming at the worst possible moments in close contests. Lamar Jackson had two costly turnovers against the Chiefs that helped Kansas City begin to pull away early on. The boom or bust nature of the offense has in turn hurt the defense by putting them back on the field on a quick turnaround. The team has simply failed to play complimentary football so far this season.
BRB: The Ravens came out of the Chiefs game pretty beat up? Who are some of the key players that could be out Sunday?
NM: The Ravens could be without several key players on Sunday against the Texans. The most notable name is Lamar Jackson, obviously, but Baltimore will also likely be without inside linebacker Roquan Smith and cornerback Marlon Humphrey as both seem to be dealing with multi-week injuries suffered against the Chiefs. The entire starting defensive line was absent in Kansas City and that could be the case again this week if defensive tackle Travis Jones is unable to go with a knee injury while Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington are both on injured reserve.
I would also imagine the Ravens will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley as he exited the game early against the Chiefs with a preexisting ankle injury that he attempted to play through. Cornerback Nate Wiggins is another potential absence for Baltimore as he left last week’s game with an elbow injury. The Ravens have been without fullback Patrick Ricard to this point in the season, and I find it hard to imagine that will change this week unless he begins practicing for the first time since early August. I do predict that outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy will return to action this week, however, as he appeared close to doing so last week.
BRB: The Ravens have a long history of taking the Texans to the woodshed. What is it about this matchup that has been so favorable for the Ravens?
NM: The easy answer here would be Lamar Jackson. He’s undefeated in four matchups with the Texans in his career, with three coming against a DeMeco Ryans-led squad. In those games, he averaged more than 250 combined rushing and passing yards with eight total touchdowns and two turnovers. The Ravens may very well be without Jackson on Sunday, so Cooper Rush will likely struggle to move the ball against Houston’s defense.
Instead, the Ravens will have to rely on their defense, which has only given up 44 points to the Texans in their last five matchups (8.8 points per game). That drops to 7.0 points per game in C.J. Stroud’s three games against Baltimore, largely due to a defensive front that stifled the run and consistently got pressure on Stroud. As with their offense, the Ravens’ injuries on defense may not be able to dominate in the same way. This will likely be a very different game from previous meetings.
BRB: The Ravens have owned the AFC North over the years. Who do you see as the primary competition for another division crown? Which divisional opponent do Ravens fans enjoy beating the most?
NM: It has quickly become clear that the Pittsburgh Steelers are the Ravens’ biggest competition for the AFC North crown. Jake Browning has struggled in relief of Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, and the Browns’ quarterback switch to Dillon Gabriel feels unlikely to turn their offense around. However, the Steelers’ record doesn’t seem to match their league rankings – 16th in points scored, 29th in yards; 21st in points allowed, 28th in total defense – but the Ravens will have a tough time catching up anytime soon. It will take a combination of a post-bye surge by the Ravens and a late-season collapse from Pittsburgh for the Ravens to secure the division.
The Steelers have always been the Ravens’ biggest rival, so that mattered most to fans in Baltimore for a long time. But ever since the Bengals dropped 82 points on the Ravens in their two 2021 matchups on their way to a Super Bowl appearance, it feels like the in-division focus has shifted to Cincinnati. This can vary in specific years – this year, for example, fans may be less excited about beating the Joe Burrow-less Bengals than they are about a potential tiebreaking win against the Steelers.
BRB: As of right now, Fanduel has the Ravens as 1.5 point underdogs on Sunday. How do you see the game going? Are there any prop bets you feel comfortable recommending?
NM: With Lamar Jackson trending towards an absence on Sunday, the Ravens are now 1.5-point underdogs at home. That has rarely happened in the Lamar Jackson era, and almost never when the QB was healthy. The Ravens were not playing up to their potential before the injury bug hit, so it’s hard to imagine them suddenly reversing course with a reshuffled lineup on defense and Cooper Rush under center. That also makes it extremely tough to bet on the Baltimore.
Assuming that Jackson doesn’t play, I believe that the Texans will cover the spread. The Ravens have allowed 265.5 passing yards per game this year; C.J. Stroud’s over/under is currently sitting at 210.5. Derrick Henry is also under 90.5 rushing yards line in his last three games, and both the game script and the lack of Lamar Jackson’s gravity could lead to another rough game.
We want to thank Nikhil for joining us for our five questions. I would note that he had some help from the whole staff over at Baltimore Beatdown to answer our questions. If you want the latest on Ravens news and commentary you can find no better played than Baltimore Beatdown. We want to thank Nikhil for his generous time and tireless efforts and we want to wish him and the Ravens the best of luck for the remainder of the season. As per usual, we hope that luck begins on Monday morning.
